C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 010990

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2016
TAGS: MARR MOPS PGOV RS
SUBJECT: NATO SOFA RATIFICATION: VERDICT STILL OUT

REF: A. MOSCOW 10230

B. MOSCOW 9821

Classified By: DCM Daniel A. Russell. Reasons 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: According to the Foreign Ministry, the
Russian Government is completing its review of the NATO
Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) -- which was signed last
year -- and expects to send it to the Duma "within weeks."
The MFA assured us that all GOR entities, including the
Ministry of Defense, supported the agreement, albeit with
some reservations. Non-official contacts do not share the
MFA's rosy assessment and attributed the long review process
to concerns about closer military cooperation with Western
nations. Duma representatives told us that the legislature
would consider the agreement "in due course," suggesting that
the measure might not be taken up during the Duma's current
session, which ends in December. Election dynamics will
complicate prospects for SOFA ratification, with little
obvious political gain in advocating closer military
relations with NATO and the U.S. END SUMMARY.
.
--------------
REVIEW OF NATO SOFA ALMOST COMPLETED
--------------


2. (C) Grigoriy Sumkin, Counselor in the NATO Section of
MFA's European Cooperation Department, told us September 26
that the GOR was nearing completion of its second review of
the NATO SOFA signed by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in
April 2005. He anticipated that the government would submit
the agreement to the Duma for ratification "within a few
weeks." Sumkin emphasized that there was no political reason
for the long official review, explaining that it was not
unusual for international agreements to undergo more than one
round of scrutiny to ensure that all provisions conformed
with Russian law. He said Lavrov had stressed the same
points in a September 19 meeting in New York with NATO
Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer. In the case of the NATO

SIPDIS
SOFA, Sumkin continued, several provisions had not initially
complied with domestic law. He declined to specify the exact
differences but suggested that they pertained to customs
duties and liability for p

roperty damages. These issues were
being resolved. He asserted that the entire government,
including MOD, supported the SOFA and looked forward to
closer military cooperation with the U.S. and other Western
nations.


3. (C) Nonetheless, Sumkin said the government might send
the agreement to the Duma accompanied by several
clarifications; their nature and wording were still being
negotiated. Characterizing the SOFA as a framework agreement
that could be tailored to individual circumstances, Sumkin
argued that some NATO partner nations had issued similar
clarifications upon ratification without significant effects
upon their military cooperation. Sumkin did not think the
GOR's clarifications would impose artificial barriers or
otherwise undermine the agreement's implementation. The GOR
understood the reciprocal nature of the SOFA and would not
deliberately risk disadvantaging its military personnel
abroad.
.
--------------
DEFENSE ANALYSTS LESS OPTIMISTIC
--------------


4. (C) Several of our non-official contacts did not share
the MFA's optimism concerning ratification. Aleksandr Golts,
a respected defense analyst with the Weekly Journal,
Aleksandr Belkin of the Council on Foreign and Defense
Policy, and independent analyst Pavel Felgengauer all told us
separately that a decision to ratify the agreement would be
based mainly on political considerations. All echoed the
sentiment that neither Duma consideration nor a final
decision on ratification was imminent.


5. (C) Belkin emphasized that there was not a strong lobby
for closer ties to the U.S. or NATO. The MOD mindset was
still mired in Soviet-era thinking that did not permit the
military or civilian leadership to recognize the merits of
active cooperation with more advanced armed forces. Belkin
noted that there were only a handful of people in the Duma --
deputies or staffers -- who understood defense issues and
would be able to analyze objectively the implications of the
NATO SOFA. If the government did send the agreement to the
legislature soon, he thought the most likely time to consider
it would be in the latter part of the current session or the
early part of the spring session (in other words, after this
autumn's regional and local elections but before next

MOSCOW 00010990 002 OF 002


autumn's parliamentary campaign). He said the Kremlin was
sensitive about the timing of any decision regarding
ratification. Isabelle Francois, Head of the local NATO
Information Office, also told us that Duma consideration of
the SOFA was unlikely until the spring legislative session.
.
--------------
DUMA UNLIKELY TO PUT AGREEMENT ON FAST TRACK
--------------


6. (C) Contacts in the Duma confirmed that the legislature
had not yet received the agreement nor is it now on the
docket for consideration during the current session. Valeriy
Ignatyev, a knowledgeable staffer on the Defense Committee,
told us this week that the agreement was still with the MFA,
which had not finished clearing the SOFA with other
ministries. Ignatyev mentioned that the agreement would be
considered "in due course" but would likely require several
amendments to existing Russian law before it could be
implemented. His own sources had informally told him that
the SOFA was not expected at the Duma before the end of the
year.
.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) We are encouraged that the MFA is moving ahead on
interagency consideration of the draft NATO SOFA. That said,
ratification will depend on political considerations with an
eye toward the forthcoming electoral campaigns. The Russian
reaction to the landing of NATO forces in Ukraine and to
NATO's decision to offer Intensified Dialogue to Georgia
shows that cooperation with NATO remains a political
hotbutton here. Nonetheless, Russia's decision to
participate in NATO's Active Endeavor Mediterranean
interdiction operation shows that there are Russian
decision-makers who recognize the value of increased
practical cooperation with NATO. De Hoop Scheffer's October
26 visit to Moscow is the next opportunity to raise the SOFA
with Russia's leadership. We will continue to press the MFA
and others to accelerate consideration of the agreement.
BURNS