REGIONAL OPPOSITION PARTIES COALESCE FOR LOCAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000978

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BO
SUBJECT: REGIONAL OPPOSITION PARTIES COALESCE FOR LOCAL
ELECTIONS


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Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
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1. (C) In preparation for Belarus' upcoming municipal
elections, the regional chapters of parties within the
opposition United Democratic Forces (UDF) coalition continue
to sign cooperation agreements with their Belarusian Social
Democratic Party "Gramada" (BSDP) counterparts. Despite
enthusiasm for the cooperation agreements among national
leaders of the opposition United Civic Party (UCP),the top
leadership of UDF partner Belarusian Popular Front (BPF)
harbors reservations about UCP's motives. Moreover,
following an August 15 meeting between EUR DAS David Kramer
and BSDP Deputy Chair Aleksey Korol in Washington, BSDP
maintains that the regional agreements will not lead to its
formal participation in the UDF without a significant
restructuring of the coalition. Regardless, senior BSDP
leaders predict that the agreements will demonstrate the
seriousness of the Belarusian opposition movement to the
international community, especially Russia. End summary.

2006: The Summer of Regional Cooperation
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2. (C) On August 19, a session of the Belarusian Social
Democratic Party "Gramada" (BSDP) Executive Bureau formally
endorsed the regional cooperation agreements between BSDP
local chapters and local chapters of member parties of the
opposition United Democratic Forces (UDF) coalition as a
central feature of BSDP's strategy for Belarus' local
elections scheduled for January 14. The endorsement followed
such agreements between the local chapters of the BSDP and
the United Civic Party (UCP) for joint campaigns in Grodno
and Brest on July 19; among BSDP, UCP and the pro-democratic
Belarusian Party of Communists (BPC) in the northern city of
Mogilev on August 1; and between BSDP and BPC chapters in
Vitebsk on August 8.


3. (C) On August 23, BSDP signed yet another inter-party
cooperation agreement with UCP and BPC in the southeastern
city of Gomel. Besides expanding BSDP's local election
strategy in terms of geography, the Gomel accord also
broadened BSDP's base by including the opposition Belarusian
Popular Front (BPF) party and non-party organizations, such
as the Independent Union of Electronics Industry Workers.
Local opposition leaders expressed hope that the Gomel
agreement would encourage the national leaders of BPF, UCP,
BPC, and BSDP to cooperate. For example, BPF Gomel Chief
Viktor Romanisko told independent media, "we must encourage
our national leaders to cooperate, as they do not now the way
we would like."

BPF and UCP on the Regional Cooperation Agreements
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4. (C) The BPF national leaderships seems unreceptive to
regional cooperation. On August 21, BPF Deputy Head Aleksey
Yanukevich told Poloff that BPF regards the tri-partite
agreements as "wrong" and an "unfriendly" development.
Yanukevich speculated that the regional agreements likely
were UCP leader Anatoliy Lebedko's attempt to seize BSDP's
party structure and activists for the UCP while BSDP leader
and former presidential candidate Aleksandr Kozulin remains
in prison. He insisted that cooperation agreements between
BSDP and UDF member parties must be negotiated at the
national level by national party leaders.


5. (C) In contrast, the UCP national leadership seems
enthusiastic about regional cooperation. On September 1, UCP
Deputy Chairman Igor Shinkarik told Poloff that the
inter-party cooperation agreements were part of UCP efforts
to build local level coalitions. In effect, the cooperation
agreements render BSDP a party to the UDF so-called Vilnius
Initiative agreement, which permits multiple opposition
candidates to run in a single constituency as long as they do
not criticize each other. Shinkarik confirmed that the UCP
supports convening a second congress of opposition parties to
restructure the UDF coalition sometime after the January 2007
local elections and thus enable more cooperation between the
UDF and BSDP at the national level.

BSDP on Regional Cooperation and Joining UDF
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6. (C) On August 23, Poloff discussed the regional
cooperation agreements with BSDP Deputy Chair Vladimir

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Nistyuk. Nistyuk lauded the accords on the grounds that
potential campaign contributors in Russia would regard the
opposition as more credible if they see real cooperation.
However, Nistyuk told Poloff BSDP participation in the UDF
coalition was impossible without a reconfiguration of the
coalition and that participating in the coalition would be
the "biggest mistake the BSDP could make." Nistyuk insisted
that the regional cooperation agreements were separate and
distinct from the UDF structure. Nistyuk expressed
skepticism about a second opposition congress to restructure
the coalition but pledged that BSDP would examine such a
plan.


7. (C) On September 5, Poloff met with BSDP Deputy Chair
Aleksey Korol to discuss his August 15 meeting with EUR DAS
David Kramer in the Department. He reiterated to Poloff what
he told DAS Kramer about Lebedko's so-called "Four Plus Two"
plan to restructure the UDF coalition. (Note: Under
Lebedko's proposal, the four UDF parties, BSDP, and
Milinkevich's team would form a new national opposition
partnership to coordinate opposition activities.) Like
Nistyuk, Korol said he would have to examine the plan more
closely but did not rule out BSDP's joining with the UDF.
Korol also reported to Poloff that he discussed with DAS
Kramer a strategy of surrounding the Lukashenko regime with a
"circle" formed by the Belarusian opposition, the United
States, and Russia. He echoed Nistyuk that Russia would
regard the opposition as more serious because of the regional
cooperation agreements and therefore as an alternative to
Lukashenko as guarantor of its interests in Belarus.


8. (C) Poloff asked Korol why the Gomel BPF chapter had
signed an agreement with its BSDP, UCP, and BPC counterparts
despite reticence among BPF national leaders. Korol replied
that the local BPF leaders in Gomel understood their own
political realities. That is, Gomel BPF understood that it
is weak in Gomel and UCP is strong. Korol concluded that
such realities were the underlying reason for all of the
regional agreements.

Comment
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9. (C) Despite Yanukevich's suspicions regarding Lebedko,
the BSDP and UCP national leaders appear to be cooperating
more closely and actively with each other and with their own
regional chapters. We can explain this UCP-BSDP coalescence
in part because UCP is the main source of dissent among UDF
parties and thus has similar interests with BSDP, which is
not a UDF member. Nevertheless, the agreements seem to have
contributed to all UDF parties' interest in convening a
second congress. Although the congress will likely happen
after local elections in January, the overall signals from
Korol and even Nistyuk suggest the momentum generated by
local elections could catalyze more BSDP cooperation with the
UDF coalition at the national level.
Moore