BREST OPPOSITION PUSHES ON DESPITE GOB PRESSURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000975 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2016 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREF BO SUBJECT: BREST OPPOSITION PUSHES ON DESPITE GOB PRESSURE REF: A. MINSK 929 ¶B. VILNIUS 815 MINSK 00000975 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: An August 22-23 visit by Poloffs to the Western border city of Brest received heavy attention from state security services. Local activists, already under siege by the regime, kept their commitments to meet with Poloffs despite the threat of even further scrutiny from the BKGB. The opposition members vowed to contest upcoming local elections despite every indication the regime will employ fraud to deny them significant victories. As elsewhere in Belarus, the state prevents local media in Brest from openly criticizing the government. Brest's Free Economic Zone, while touted by local officials as an engine for development, falls prey to the same state regulation that hinders the national economy. Brest-based diplomats report that local economics and politics resemble the Soviet era. End summary. Opposition Groups Stick Together to Defend their Rights -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) On August 22-23, Poloffs traveled to Brest (population 290,000),situation on the border with Poland. Poloffs managed one meeting without state security interlopers directly observing. The local chapter of the Belarusian Social Democratic Party (BSDP) Gramada hosted a roundtable including 13 representatives of the three United Democratic Forces (UDF) coalition parties, BSDP (Kozulin),BSDP (Shushkevich) and independent trade unions. The local BSDP-Gramada chair refused the ideology officer and his accompanying "journalists" entry. (Note: On August 29, the BSDP-Gramada chair and a colleague were detained for four hours by authorities. End note.) The local representatives reiterated what we had heard from their national leaderships: The elections will be fraudulent and would mainly serve as a legal means to break the regime's information blockade. Opposition activists will have the opportunity to distribute leaflets and engage in door-to-door discussions with voters. ¶3. (C) Those gathered spoke about the repression in Brest, the break up of even small, non-political meetings, and of the unlikelihood of the GOB re-registering their organizations with their current registrations expire. The United Civic Party expects to be liquidated by October, as does the Belarusian Communist Party, but they all pledge to continue fighting and working underground if necessary. Two local youth groups had been liquidated since the presidential elections. One youth activist who had already served time in jail on an administrative conviction said he believes the authorities will start bringing criminal charges against opposition youth. Three of those present had been fired from their jobs because of their political activities. Small Business Owners Unafraid of BKGB Scrutiny -------------- -- ¶4. (C) Viktor Chaykovskiy, an entrepreneur who participated in a recent hunger strike by taxi drivers over an ex post facto taxation law, explained that the government has taken strict measures to crush small and medium independent businesses. Chaykovskiy and fellow entrepreneurs are active in the BSDP and cooperate with free trade unions because they feel that there is no other way to bring change and many have nothing more to lose. Chaykovskiy himself was unbowed by government scrutiny, coming to meet with us despite being warned that security services were following us everywhere. Print Media Censured in Real Time -------------- ¶5. (C) Poloffs met with journalists from the independent newspapers Brestskiy Kuryer and Brestkaya Gazeta; Vecherniy Brest, in which the government owns a blocking stake; and the local government's paper Zarya. The hosting paper, Brestskiy Kuryer (BK),allows itself the most leeway in reporting critically on the government. However, BK did not feel confident enough to attempt to exclude the obispolkom ideology officer !nd his trailing 'independent' photographer with a video camera from the meeting. Open discus3ion quickly became impossible when the obispolkom ideology officer forcefully interrupted the editor-in-chief of Brestskiy Kuryer, claiming his estimate of a milkmaid's salary was too low. The editor told us later that he hoped his paper would not be shut down for hosting the meeting. Little Economic Activity in the Free Economic Zone (FEZ) -------------- -------------- MINSK 00000975 002.2 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Brest authorities boasted of the success of their FEZ, claiming Russia had used their experience to Create legislation for a free economic zone in Kaliningrad. They noted 90 companies representing 22 countries, led by Germany and then Russia, operated in the FEZ. The FEZ promises fewer inspections and reduced bureaucratic barriers, but the reality appears quite different. Even the most profitable company in the FEZ, a Polish-owned food procescor, has twice recentli had to suspend production for unannounced inspections. Marek Socha of the Polish Embassy in Minsk also noted the compajy faced the confiscatioj of tens of thousands of pounds of meat. Socha said Poland had to involve the highest levels of both their MFA and Ministry of Trade to resolve the dispute. Local Diplomats Keeping Heads Down -------------- ¶7. (C) Polish Consul General Jaroslaw Ksiazek speculated that most of the 500 or so visas his consulate issues daily are not for genuine tourism. Many recipients either enter Poland to work, or spend their weekends illicitly transporting gasoline from Belarus to Poland, where prices are much higher. He expressed hope Belarusians' exposure to Poland would gradually alter their outlook on the West. Most residents in his district are more or less content with regular miserly pensions. Given GOB claims that Poland seeks to foster a revolution in Belarus, Ksiazek purposely has not reached out to the local opposition, fearing any efforts would feed propaganda that the Polish population represented a fifth column. ¶8. (C) Like Ksaizek, Russian Consul General Vladimir Abramov saw many similarities between present-day Brest and the Soviet era. Abramov explained that Russian investors in Brest were the same people involved in the local economy before the collapse of the USSR. They had maintained their contacts with Belarusian officials and never required assistance from the Russian MFA to resolve any disputes. Comment: Authorities Efforts to Enforce Passivity Fail -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) GOB authorities intended the constant overt surveillance during the visit to demonstrate to our interlocutors the potentially serious consequences of speaking out against the regime. Clearly, the mysterious death of a Lithuanian diplomat during the visit (Refs A and B),while quite possibly an accident, could perpetuate the perception associating with Western diplomats is a security risk. However, local activists' determination to provide us their assessment of the political and economic state of affairs in Brest is impressive and encouraging. Moore