MILINKEVICH, BACK IN BELARUS, TOUTS SOLIDARITY AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000951 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO SUBJECT: MILINKEVICH, BACK IN BELARUS, TOUTS SOLIDARITY AND INFORMATION IN FIGHTING REPRESSION REF: 431 Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a meeting with Charge on August 29, United Democratic Forces (UDF) leader Milinkevich argued that the opposition remains united and said he would be publicly involved in the run up to the local elections. He and his wife spoke of their efforts to create solidarity among Belarusians and to increase the flow of independent information in order to overcome the fear imposed by the Lukashenko regime. Milinkevich also repeated earlier concerns about the threat a Union State with Russia would pose to Belarusian independence. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) United Democratic Forces (UDF) coalition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich and his wife, Inna Kulei, met with Charge and Poloff at the Embassy on August 29. The arrival of Milinkevich and Kulei was delayed by about 20 minutes; they had to travel by taxi as their tires had been slashed. Using Local Elections to Engage Belarusians -------------- ¶3. (C) UDF leader Milinkevich acknowledged that winning local elections is not possible under the Lukashenko regime, but encouraged opposition participation in all elections because they serve as opportunities to influence the hearts and minds of the Belarusian people. Milinkevich told Charge that the key UDF leaders are generally in agreement on strategies and tactics for taking full advantage of the local elections. Specifically, opposition parties are taking steps to ensure there is no competition between democratic candidates, and each candidate will have both a local and a national platform. The national platform will include a warning about the threat to Belarusian independence. In response to Charge's question, Milinkevich said that he would be taking an active role in the local elections in support of individual candidates. Increasing Information Access Key to Overcoming Fear -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Echoing the sentiments that his senior opposition colleagues expressed in recent meetings, Milinkevich claimed the lack of accessible, independent information remains one of the key problems in combating the sense of fear that consumes Belarusians. He asserted that small local newspapers are the most effective means for disseminating independent information in Belarus and informed Charge that the opposition can independently print and distribute these publications if the USG could provide supplies and gasoline. In addition, Milinkevich praised USG financial support of independent media but suggested additional oversight of donor coordination, both within the USG and with the EU, to allocate funding for larger projects better and to avoid duplication of smaller ones. Strengthening Solidarity to Fight Repression -------------- ¶5. (C) Milinkevich's wife and head of the Committee for the Defense of the Politically Repressed, Inna Kulei, stressed to Charge the importance of increasing solidarity among Belarusians as an additional measure to overcome the fear imposed by the Lukashenko regime. She stated that the "Songs of Freedom" opposition concert on August 25 on Bangalore Square was a test to gauge the level of interest of activists. According to Kulei, the opposition will use the planned September 16 "Great Jeans Fest" to stress the importance of freedom and independence. She noted that the Jeans Fest will be held on the anniversary of the first "Day of Solidarity" and will be the final Day of Solidarity event. Both Kulei and Milinkevich plan to participate in the Jeans Fest. (Note: Kulei's statement that the Stepember 16 festival will mark the final Day of Solidarity event was news to us. We will follow up with Day of Solidarity organizers who have been organizing small events on the 16th of each month since September 2005. End note.) ¶6. (C) Kulei added that opposition leaders are also working together to organize a "Day of Prayer for Belarus" to express solidarity with religious leaders and activists who have been repressed by the GOB. Although the plans for the event are still in their nascent stages, Kulei said the committee is in the process of seeking out clergy and religious leaders. MINSK 00000951 002 OF 003 ¶7. (C) Kulei told Charge that her Committee for the Defense of the Politically Repressed continues to work on its employment, study abroad and rehabilitation programs (reftel). She expressed her gratitude for the monetary and moral support from U.S. citizens that the committee received for victims of political repression. She explained that the committee is trying to formulate a "Family-to-Family Program" to connect Belarusian families with foreign families who want to provide financial or moral support to victims. Charge assured Kulei that the Embassy is actively supporting democratic advocates, citing his presence at the Partnership trial and his efforts to visit imprisoned Partnership activists and former presidential candidate Aleksandr Kozulin in jail. Union State with Russia Eliminates Belarusian Independence -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Milinkevich expressed his grave concern over the threat that a Union State with Russia presents to Belarusian independence. According to him, while Belarusians generally favor economic cooperation with Russia, the vast majority of average Belarusians are against a formal union with Russia. Not only do Belarusians believe that their standard of living is better in Belarus than in Russia, but they fear Russian oligarchs and crime will swallow up Belarus. Additionally, Belarusians do not want their relatives being sent to fight a Russian war in Chechnya. ¶9. (C) Milinkevich told Charge that he worries that the opposition's years of work would be made inconsequential if Belarus lost its independence in a single day with a referendum on a Union State. Therefore, the opposition is committed to distributing information on the consequences of a Belarusian-Russian Union State as widely as possible and to encourage people to protest any further progress of the Union State. Charge assured Milinkevich that the U.S. would not recognize the results of any referendum on the subject of Belarus' sovereignty as conducting a referendum democratically is impossible under the current circumstances. Milinkevich's Take on Carrots and Sticks -------------- ¶10. (C) Milinkevich also expressed concern about possible EU engagement of Lukashenko. While not opposed to slightly opening the door to Belarus, Milinkevich warned that EU countries should proceed cautiously and force Lukashenko to prove his intentions by making the first move. Milinkevich warned that the GOB would propagandize unconditional engagement as a signal of international legitimacy and recognition. Milinkevich also cautioned against the imposition of general economic sanctions. Charge reassured Milinkevich that the U.S. was not considering economic sanctions and has no plans to reach out to the Lukashenko regime. Charge further emphasized ongoing USG efforts to target the regime through asset freezes and visa bans. Travel Outside of Belarus -------------- ¶11. (C) Milinkevich told Charge that he plans to travel in September to Finland, which holds the EU presidency, to caution Finnish leaders on the potential consequences of engaging Lukashenko; he feels that the Finns may be a bit soft on Belarus. Charge and Milinkevich discussed the possibility of a Washington visit for the senior UDF leadership (Milinkevich, Lebedko, Kalyakin, and Vyachorka). Milinkevich agreed that travel to U.S. should be undertaken jointly and should wait until January to allow the UDF to focus on the upcoming local elections. He also said that he has a new passport. Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) Milinkevich affirmed his fellow UDF colleagues' earlier statements to Charge that differences of opinions within the coalition leadership are not eclipsing cooperation in the lead up to the local elections. Postponement of most other international travel until after the local elections demonstrates progress towards galvanizing domestic rather than international support. It was also encouraging to hear the opposition's plans to reinitiate civic protests and to seek new partners, both of which are steps that were long overdue. That said, the proof will be in the pudding: Milinkevich, now that he is back in the country, must now MINSK 00000951 003 OF 003 demonstrate public and private leadership in order to keep the United Democratic Forces truly united. Moore