"INDEPENDENT" MP CLAIMS TO PROMOTE GRADUAL CHANGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000939

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREF PHUM BO
SUBJECT: "INDEPENDENT" MP CLAIMS TO PROMOTE GRADUAL CHANGE
FROM WITHIN


Classified By: Acting Pol/Econ Chief Nathan Lane for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).


1. (C) Summary: On August 23, "independent" Belarusian MP
Abramova met unofficially with Pol/Econ Chief to encourage
the USG to bolster support for independent media. According
to Abramova, only economic reform and greater press freedoms,
not radical change, are palatable to the Belarusian people
and the Lukashenko regime. Abramova criticized the West's
"confrontational" policies in Belarus and denounced the
current opposition as hopeless. Abramova claimed she is an
independent opposition activist using her position within the
government to bring about change in Belarus, but failed to
produce an example of how she has effectively promoted
democracy as an MP. End Summary.

Abramova: Working Within to Promote Democracy
--------------


2. (C) On August 23, National Assembly representative Olga
Abramova called on Pol/Econ Chief to discuss independent
press in Belarus. Despite being a GOB official, Abramova
repeatedly asserted to Pol/Econ Chief that she is an
"independent" member of the opposition. She conceded the
traditional opposition does not consider her a true
opposition activist because of her position in the
government, but she insisted that the only way to bring
political and economic reform in Belarus was to foment change
from within. Abramova maintained she uses her position
within the government to promote democracy and influence GOB
officials, stating, "I do more to promote democracy working
within the government than the opposition does outside the
government." However, when pressed by Pol/Econ Chief,
Abramova could not produce a concrete example of how she uses
her position to promote democracy.


3. (C) Nevertheless, Abramova claimed there were
approximately five to fifteen MPs who support her
pro-democratic initiatives and encouraged Pol/Econ Chief to
use her as an intermediary to develop more contacts with
these like-minded MPs.

Only Economic Change and Free Press Possible in Belarus
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Claiming to have a firm grasp of the Belarusian
mentality due to her prior work as a sociologist, Abramova
asserted that radical change in Belarus was not possible
because today's opposition activists and their "radical"
tactics do not appeal to Belarusians. According to Abramova,
economic reform is less controversial and more palatable to
the Belarusian people and the Lukashenko regime.


5. (C) Abramova stressed independent media was the only true
opposition force in Belarus and encouraged the USG to bolster
support for independent press, particularly for Narodnya
Volya. Abramova told Pol/Econ Chief she publicly expressed
concern about the GOB crackdown on independent press and the
limited distribution of print media within Belarus. However,
her written complaints to the Ministry of Information and the
Minsk City Executive Committee in defense of independent
press were met with no response.

Abramova Criticizes West and Opposition, but Not Lukashenko
-------------- --------------


6. (C) According to Abramova, Lukashenko was incapable of
reversing his anti-democratic policies and only his removal
from power will bring about political reform. She added,
however, that the West played a role in creating the current
political climate by adopting confrontational policies that
put Lukashenko on the defensive. Pol/Econ Chief corrected
Abramova, explaining to her that USG efforts to work with the
Lukashenko regime were only met with further repressions.


7. (C) Abramova called the opposition and their movements
"hopeless," asserting that they were controlling the West.
According to Abramova, the opposition would not actively work
for change in Belarus for fear of losing the benefits of
international attention, funding and travel opportunities
that they currently enjoy.


8. (C) Although she claims to criticize the GOB on issues
such as freedom of the press and the expulsion of politically

active students, Abramova stressed to Pol/Econ Chief that she
would never publicly slander President Lukashenko because "it
would not be wise." Instead, she criticizes his regime in
more subtle and clever manner. However, she defended
Lukashenko's reputation asserting that he was not personally
involved in the 1999-2000 disappearances. When asked,
Abramova stated that she and Lukashenko were acquaintances
but she no longer has direct contact with him.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Abramova is a self-proclaimed opposition activist,
democracy promoter, expert election consultant, social
worker, sociologist, and "effective" Member of Parliament.
Perhaps shortly after the end of the Soviet Union she might
have been connected with the opposition and civil society,
but now Abramova appears quite comfortable as a GOB-employed
MP who highlights her "opposition past" when it suits her
needs. Her claims of working within the government to
promote democracy are undermined by lack of results due to
her inability to meet with GOB officials within the
Presidential Administration, to bring legislation to
attention, and to speak on the floor of the National Assembly
without interference. It seems that Abramova's only method
to promote democracy is using her occasional vote against
anti-democratic legislation put before the parliament for its
rubber stamp.
Moore