BUILDING THE CASE FOR DEMOCRACY: MONITORING NEEDED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000904 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/UMB, EUR/ACE, EUR/RPM, AND DRL STATE FOR USAID E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM OSCE BO SUBJECT: BUILDING THE CASE FOR DEMOCRACY: MONITORING NEEDED FOR JANUARY 2007 LOCAL ELECTIONS Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) This is an action request. Please see paragraph 8. Summary -------------- ¶2. (C) On August 17, the Belarusian Central Election Committee confirmed that the municipal elections will be held on January 14, 2007. The democratic opposition believes, and we agree that these elections are the best opportunity to intensify the international spotlight on the Lukashenko regime in the near future. Post supports a plan proposed by a well-established independent NGO to conduct election monitoring, and a separate initiative by the OSCE Minsk Office to involve OSCE'S Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights as well. In addition to building the opposition's momentum and keeping the pressure on the Lukashenko regime, USG support of independent election observation would: 1) prevent gross election fraud from going undetected and 2) provide a clear measure of support for the brave opposition candidates willing to face likely GOB reprisals for their political activism. End Summary. Domestic Election Observation -------------- ¶3. (C) With the GOB's recent sentencing of the leaders of the election monitoring NGO Partnership, prominent human rights NGO Belarus Helsinki Committee (BHC) confirmed to us its interest in monitoring the electoral process leading up to the January municipal elections. BHC has observed several elections in Belarus, including the 1995 and 1999 municipal elections, 2004 parliamentary elections, and 2006 presidential elections. European NGOs and governments have provided financial support for BHC's election monitoring efforts, and the USG has provided small (Democracy Commission) grants to the organization for its human rights monitoring and defense efforts. BHC remains one of the few legally recognized independent NGOs in Belarus, although the GOB regularly threatens the organization with de-registration. ¶4. (C) On August 17, BHC leaders presented us with a proposal to monitor and report on the election process (October-January) and field from 250-1,500 observers on Election Day for USD 25,000-56,000. (Note: We would work with BHC to minimize costs. End note.) The involvement of 1,500 observers is ideal because it would provide monitoring for one-third of the country's approximately 5000 voting districts. We intend to finance part of the project through our Democracy Commission (up to USD 24,000),and the German and Czech embassies have expressed interest in supporting the proposal as well. (Note: We are not aware of any U.S. NGO currently interested in supporting election observation for the municipal elections. End note.) International Election Observation -------------- ¶5. (C) The OSCE's clear determination that the presidential elections were fraudulent served as the basis for U.S.-EU sanctions against the regime. The involvement of the OSCE in the upcoming municipal elections would provide the international community further legitimacy to keep the pressure up on the regime and positively impact the morale of the opposition candidates. ¶6. (C) The Director of the OSCE Minsk Office, Ambassador Ake Petersson, told Pol/Econ Chief August 15 that he would soon encourage OSCE-ODIHR to dispatch election monitors to Belarus to observe the January 2007 electoral process. Ambassador Peterson's Human Dimension Officer recently returned from a meeting with the ODIHR's Election Office in Warsaw and learned ODIHR would have the financial and human resources available to send a modest-sized election monitoring team to Belarus. The challenge for the OSCE would be to persuade the Lukashenko regime to issue an invitation to observe the elections. The ODIHR election office noted that many member states, including Belarus, do not recognize the role of the OSCE in municipal election coverage, but the organization has performed such monitoring in the past. ¶7. (C) Ambassador Petersson agreed with our assessment that even if the GOB refuses to issue an invitation, the OSCE's MINSK 00000904 002 OF 002 expressed (public) interest in observing the municipal elections would ratchet up the pressure on the regime and force Belarus to recognize the international community's close and continued interest in all political developments in the country. (Note: Despite tough rhetoric and consternation, the GOB has always issued an invitation to the ODIHR to observe presidential and parliamentary elections. We do not believe the OSCE in the past has seriously approached the GOB to observe its municipal elections. End note.) Petersson suggested as a first the step the OSCE should dispatch an ODIHR Needs Assessment Team (NAT),which does not require a formal GOB invitation, to explore the prospects for election monitoring. ¶8. (C) Action Request: To fund the BHC monitoring effort, Embassy Minsk requires an additional USD 24,000. The Embassy also recommends that the Department engage like-minded OSCE members and USOSCE to encourage a monitoring effort beginning with the steps outlined in paragraphs 6 and 7 above. Moore