Media Mistaken: Partnership Will Observe Elections

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000009

SIPDIS



KIEV FOR USAID

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Media Mistaken: Partnership Will Observe Elections

Ref: A) 05 Minsk 1437 B) 05 Minsk 1527

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: On January 4, Emboffs met with civil
initiative Partnership director Nikolai Astreiko to inquire
about press reports that Partnership would not be
monitoring the March presidential elections. Astreiko
stated that Partnership plans to observe the entire
electoral process, and proceeded to describe a new long-
term observation strategy and Partnership's post-election
goals. End Summary.


2. (SBU) On January 4, USAID Country Representative and
Poloff met with civil initiative Partnership director
Nikolai Astreiko to determine if there was any veracity to
the press reports that Partnership would not monitor
presidential elections.

The Truth of the Matter Is
--------------


3. (C) Astreiko informed Emboffs that Partnership has every
intention to observe the entire electoral procedure - from
signature gathering through the March 19 presidential
elections. Astreiko explained that the news article that
said that Partnership would not monitor the elections was
incorrect. This story started to circulate after Astreiko
held a press conference to present Partnership's new
election observation strategy. Some of the journalists who
attended the press conference left early and then
inaccurately reported Astreiko's statements in the news.

New Observation Strategy Leading Up to the Election
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Astreiko explained that as of January 1, Partnership
has launched a long-term decentralized observation strategy
that will run through the end of March. Under this more
flexible observation system, 170 volunteers will work in
158 districts in Belarus and report back to Minsk about
violations that they witness in all phases of the electoral
process - from candidate registration to signature
collections to agitation campaigns.


5. (C) Instead of the biweekly reporting that Partnership
did for the 2004 parliamentary elections, Astreiko
explained that Partnership will produce four reports from
January to the end of March on its observations. Despite
recent amendments to the criminal code that make it
prohibitively dangerous to report any information that may
discredit Belarus (ref A),Partnership plans make its first
report available on its website (www.partnerstva.org) and
to distribute it via newsletter starting on January 20.
Astreiko hopes that the independent media will pick up the
reports from the Internet or the news bulletin and
distribute the information more widely.

Election Day Observation Strategy
--------------


6. (C) Astreiko explained that Partnership plans to have
3,500 independent observers work in pairs to observe the
five days of early voting and voting on election day.
[Note: Astreiko's proposed number of observers is half of
the 7,000 Partnership originally expected to field for the
presidential elections. The GOB's intimidating actions
during the 2004 parliamentary elections and the call for
early elections have made it difficult for Partnership to
find volunteers for election observation.] The observers
will cover 25 percent of all polling stations in large
cities and small villages throughout Belarus.


7. (C) Partnership plans to start registering its election
observers with the GOB early since Astreiko fully expects
that the GOB will reject half of the observer applications.
[Note: Given that Partnership is not a registered
organization -- it never had legal status, but until
October it was allowed to operate as a "civic initiative" -
- Partnership volunteers must be nominated to be election
observers through already registered organizations or
through voter signature collection.] Instead of having all
the potential observers apply for certification from the
GOB at once, Astreiko wants applicants who are rejected or
NGOs whose nominations were refused to apply repeatedly
until they receive GOB approval.

Looking Ahead: Goals for Post-Election Activities
-------------- --------------


8. (C) After the elections, Partnership plans to focus its
efforts on advocacy. In the two months after the
elections, Astreiko said that Partnership would work to
distribute the "real results" of the presidential elections
and a list of the violations that occurred during the
election process. In the long run, Partnership will look
to find new members to create a socially active group whose
goal will be to defend people's rights.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Astreiko expressed much more confidence in
Partnership's prospects for election monitoring and the
future of the organization than his deputy Enira
Bronitskaya did two weeks earlier (ref B). Although
admittedly tired after two weeks in prison (he was released
on December 29),Astreiko seemed ready to take on the
ambitious task of condensing the seven-month election
observation plan into three. Launching a new election
observation strategy days after being released from prison
demonstrated the type of resiliency the organization needs
to survive under intense pressure from authorities in
Belarus. Astreiko's long-term plans indicate that he
expects Partnership to be a strong advocate for protection
of Belarusian citizens' rights in the future.

PHLIPOT