OPPOSITION LEADER KALYAKIN OFFERS CANDID VIEW OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000848 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER KALYAKIN OFFERS CANDID VIEW OF COALITION UNITY REF: MINSK 692 Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In their first meeting, Belarusian opposition leader Kalyakin asserted to Charge August 8 that the United Democratic Forces (UDF) is committed to spreading independent information, supporting democratic institution building, and protecting activists from GOB persecution. Kalyakin stated that personal ambitions among UDF leaders and struggles over internal leadership have impacted the UDF's unity. He hopes that the UDF will be rejuvenated by the local election campaign, which the UDF will use to promote its platform and educate Belarusians about the country's problems. Kalyakin encouraged the USG to continue shining a light on Belarus and urged better coordination of the financial support for the democratic movement in Belarus. End Summary. Personal Ambitions Weaken Unity of UDF -------------- ¶2. (C) Pro-democratic Belarus Party of Communists (BPC) leader and of the UDF Political Council member Sergey Kalyakin asserted to Charge that the UDF operated as a united, successful group through the April 26 Chernobyl March. He added, however, that personal ambitions among the party leaders have always existed even if it was not obvious to outside observers. Kalyakin stated that the party leaders have differing opinions on the best way to proceed and are trying to gather support from the others. ¶3. (C) Kalyakin informed Charge that despite the tension caused by struggle for internal leadership, the UDF will not hold a second congress. Former presidential candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich chairs the UDF's Political Council, thus making him the recognized UDF leader. (Note: In June, Kalyakin said he told Milinkevich he must work with others as equals (reftel).) Kalyakin claimed that Milinkevich's leadership "is being disputed, especially in the regions." According to Kalyakin, Milinkevich needs to constantly reestablish himself as a leader. In addition, Kalyakin reported that individual party members complain about supporting a representative who is not their chosen party leader. During the campaign, the UDF leaders could allay their party members' concerns by referring to the results of the Congress. After the elections, however, Kalyakin stated it has become much more difficult to placate them. 
 Election Strategy Ready: Not Looking to Win Seats -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) The UDF's strategy is to use the January 2007 local municipal election campaign as a legal channel to promote its platform and raise awareness countrywide on Belarus' current and potential problems. Kalyakin told Charge that the UDF plans to be ready to launch its local election campaign in August -- two months prior to the official start of the campaign -- in preparation for the possibility of early elections. ¶5. (C) Kalyakin hopes the local election campaign will "rejuvenate the UDF." The campaign seems to be gathering momentum as parties are already seeking potential candidates for local elections. According to Kalyakin, the UDF knows that it will not be possible for opposition parties to win these seats given the regime's ability to manipulate election outcomes, but it plans use the elections to bring Belarus closer to democratic change. UDF Priorities -------------- ¶6. (C) Kalyakin told Charge that the UDF's first priority is to continue to spread independent information throughout Belarus widely via newspapers, television, radio and the Internet. In addition, Kalyakin stressed the importance of building and supporting democratic institutions. He praised NDI and IRI's efforts in that area, but expressed the desire to know more about the work of NED, "which we do not see." ¶7. (C) Finally, Kalyakin also underlined the significance of protecting political activists from GOB persecution. He mentioned specifically the students who had been expelled from universities for their political activities and the families of political prisoners, especially the families former presidential candidate Aleksandr Kozulin and the leaders of the election monitoring NGO, Partnership. Kalyakin encouraged the USG to find ways to support them MINSK 00000848 002 OF 002 because without a safety net, activists are less likely to take risks to bring about democratic change. U.S. Support -------------- ¶8. (C) When asked by the Charge for things the USG can do to further promote democratic change in Belarus, Kalyakin stressed the importance of keeping the USG appraised of the situation in Belarus and continuing to shine a spotlight on the country. Kalyakin encouraged Charge to keep up the pressure on the regime despite GOB roadblocks. Charge informed Kalyakin that he and the heads of the EU missions had been following the Partnership trial closely and would be seeking an opportunity to visit Kozulin and other political prisoners. ¶9. (C) Kalyakin also pushed for better coordination of financial support of the democratic movement in Belarus. Kalyakin understands that it is not possible to centralize all the funding processes, but he suggested one coordinator oversee the entire process to ensure that funds allocated equitably to promote common goals and that initiatives are not being duplicated. ¶10. (C) While praising the goal of spreading independent information into the border regions of Belarus via FM radio programs, Kalyakin claimed that the existing FM channels drew a small audience due to boring program content. He urged Charge to reformat the programs to appeal to a larger audience. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Kalyakin seemed to offer a reasonably honest assessment of the UDF's limitations, weaknesses, and successes. He appeared to be optimistic about the role of the UDF in the upcoming municipal elections scheduled for January 2007 despite the obvious problems within the UDF hierarchy. We look forward to future meetings with Kalyakin's colleagues to better judge the ability of the UDF to put aside personal ambitions and remain united. Moore