Minsk Election Weekly VI (January 20-January 27)

UNCLAS MINSK 000077

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SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly VI (January 20-January 27)

REF: MINSK 44


1. (U) January 27 is the final day for presidential contenders
to submit signatures. Each contender must submit a minimum of
100,000 signatures to the Central Election Committee. This is
the sixth in a weekly series of election-oriented reports,
providing brief items of interest related to the March 19, 2006
presidential elections.

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Signature Campaign
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2. (U) Signature Updates

The initiative groups of the following presidential contenders
released updates on the number of signatures collected to date:

Candidate Number of Signatures Date
-------------- -------------- --------------

Lukashenko 1,574,000 January 24
Milinkevich 178,000 January 21
Kozulin 160,000 January 24
Gaidukevich 140,000 January 19
Poznyak 100,000 January 19
Frolov 100,000 January 23
Skrebets (withdrew) 55,000 January 19

Candidate Activity
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3. (U) Frolov Hangs Up His Hat?

On January 20, presidential contender General Valery Frolov
announced he was ready to negotiate with 10 Plus presidential
contender Aleksandr Milinkevich at the end of the signature
campaign. Frolov claimed he was wrong in thinking he was the
best candidate for president. However, Frolov claimed
negotiations with Milinkevich would depend on Milinkevich's
motives and his obligations to "forces" that support him. On
January 23, the head of Frolov's initiative group, Igor Azarko,
announced Frolov's intention to withdraw from the presidential
race and that there would soon be a statement explaining his
reasons.


4. (U) Poznyak to Return to Belarus

Presidential contender Zenon Poznyak told Russian journalists
on January 23 that he would return to Belarus after being
registered as a candidate, and subsequently, gaining immunity.
Poznyak left Belarus in 1996 for fear of being jailed. Poznyak
accused other campaign groups of being created by the secret
services and helping the regime rather than opposing it.
Poznyak estimated that one million people would vote for him
and his national revival and liberation movement.


5. (U) Skrebets Withdraws, Supports Kozulin

Jailed presidential contender Sergey Skrebets withdrew his
nomination on January 26 and pledged his support to fellow
presidential contender Aleksandr Kozulin. Kozulin's campaign
manager welcomed Skrebets' support and noted that Kozulin's
team was ready to admit all members of Skrebets' initiative
group.


6. (U) CEC Expects Only Four Candidates

In a January 26 interview with the state newspaper Zvyazda, CEC
President Ludmilla Yermoshina expected only four presidential
contenders to be registered as candidates. Yermoshina claimed
the signature campaign was calm, but noted that initiative
groups were "too slow" submitting signatures. Yermoshina
predicted that this would cause long lines of initiative group
members at election commissions on the final day, resulting in
disorganization and conflicts between commission members and
initiative groups. [Note: On January 25, Kozulin's group filed
a complaint to the CEC accusing executive authorities of
refusing to certify signatures by claiming they were too busy,
forcing signature collectors to wait hours for signature
stamps.]

Warnings and Complaints
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7. (U) Kozulin Angers CEC

Presidential contender Kozulin's January 17 article in
Narodnaya Volya, in which Kozulin predicted he would be the
next president, angered the CEC. Secretary of the CEC Nikolai
Lozovik accused Kozulin of using the article for early
electioneering and warned other contenders to refrain from
"abusing" the CEC's yielding attitude. Lozovik claimed that
such violations would be considered when it was time to
register candidates.


8. (U) Complaint Filed Against Lukashenko

Brest resident Sergey Akulenka filed a complaint on January 20
with the police department against President Lukashenko's
initiative group for allegedly violating Belarus' electoral
code. According to Akulenka, on January 18, a woman without
accreditation was collecting signatures for the President at
the regional library and her signature sheets had no
information about the candidate. In addition, she was
allegedly distributing Lukashenko campaign leaflets. Police
confiscated the signature sheets. Other reports of coercion by
Lukashenko's team include forcing postmen, housing
administrators, teachers, and hospital workers to collecting
signatures or risk losing their jobs.


9. (U) Sheiman Denies Violations

Head of Lukashenko's campaign Viktor Sheiman in a January 24
radio interview denied that the President's initiative group
was using government resources to aid their campaign. He also
claimed that only accredited campaign managers were gathering
signatures for Lukashenko, and without using coercion. He
admitted that some of the 6,000 members of Lukashenko's
initiative group have behaved badly, but those incidents were
isolated and resolved.


10. (U) Milinkevich Appeals Official Warning

On January 20, Milinkevich' initiative group filed a complaint
with the Supreme Court and the Prosecutor General's Office
about the official warning it received from the CEC on January
19 (reftel). Milinkevich's lawyer, Vladimir Labkovich, claimed
that only territorial commissions, not the CEC, could issue
such warnings. Labkovich also insisted that the printed
material distributed by group members while collecting ballots
was not campaign literature because it did not call for voting
for Milinkevich. CEC Secretary Lozovik told independent online
news source BelaPan that the CEC's warning could only be
appealed with the Prosecutor General's Office and was certain
that the warning would be upheld. Lozovik claimed that the
CEC's warning was "well-founded" and backed with
"incontrovertible" evidence.


11. (U) Gaidukevich Wants Milinkevich and Kozulin Removed

On January 25, presidential contender Sergey Gaidukevich
petitioned the CEC to remove Milinkevich and Kozulin from the
presidential race for early campaigning. Gaidukevich told
independent online news source BelaPan that he sent the CEC
various campaign calendars and leaflets that his initiative
group had collected from Milinkevich and Kozulin campaign
members and noted Kozulin's January 19 Narodnaya Volya article.
Lozovik replied that the CEC was already aware of the
allegations stated in Gaidukevich's petition and assured that
all instances would be taken into consideration before
registering candidates.

Media And Campaigning
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12. (SBU) Milinkevich Plans Rally

On January 20, spokesperson for Milinkevich Sergey Voznyak
announced Milinkevich's plans to hold a "large-scale" meeting
with voters in March. According to Voznyak, the meeting would
take place in a hall in downtown Minsk, but if authorities
denied permission, it would happen in a central square. The
rally is not linked to Lukashenko's March 2-3 All-Belarusian
People's Assembly, because according to Voznyak, plans for the
rally were made several months ago. [Note: On January 24, a
senior member of the Milinkevich team told Pol/Econ Chief that
the Milinkevich rally was indeed meant to draw attention away
from Lukashenko's rally.]


13. (U) Kozulin and Milinkevich Demand TV Coverage

On January 26, Kozulin's campaign manager Mecheslav Grib
petitioned CEC Head Yermoshina to allow him to appear six times
per week on the state-controlled National Television's (BT)
prime-time news program Panorama. Grib's petition referred to
the Lukashenko's campaign manager Viktor Sheiman's January 24
appearance on the show, claiming the heads of other
presidential contenders' campaigns were not given an
opportunity to appear on TV. Grib lashed out at the narrative
before Sheiman's appearance that claimed other campaign
managers declined to give interviews or comments on the
progress of the signature campaign. Grib and Milinkevich
campaign official Aleksandr Bukhvostov claimed that BT did not
approach them about interviews or comments.


14. (U) German-Russian Group to Launch Radio Broadcasts to
Belarus

The European Commission (EC) on January 26 chose the German
public relations firm Media Consulta and the Russian TV station
Center TV (CTV) to broadcast news into Belarus for the next two
years at a cost of two million euros. The broadcasts are to
begin in February in time to cover the March election. Some
opposition groups questioned the EC's choice, claiming that CTV
had lucrative contracts with Lukashenko's national media
agency. An EC spokesperson noted that CTV would be a "sleeping
partner" with no active role. During his recent trip to
Poland, Milinkevich regretted that the radio broadcasts had not
yet started.

Preparations For Elections
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15. (U) CEC Invites Baltic Observers and Not Georgians

The CEC announced on January 20 that it had invited the Latvian
and Lithuanian CECs to observe Belarus' elections. CEC
Secretary Lozovik said the decision was based on Belarus' good

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business and personal relations with the Baltic countries.
However, the CEC did not invite observers from Georgia's CEC
because it allegedly has no contact with its Georgian
counterpart. CEC Head Ludmilla Yermoshina claimed the decision
was not political.


16. (U) Time to Nominate Precinct Commissions

Political parties, non-governmental organizations, and workers'
collectives and groups (comprising no less than 10 workers or
members) have until January 28 to nominate representatives to
precinct commissions. The commissions will be formed by
February 1.


17. (U) Military Polling Booths

The Defense Ministry on January 23 announced it would open 81
polling stations at military units and schools and would form
election commissions for the stations by February 1. Military
units and organizations with more than ten people were eligible
to nominate candidates for the commissions. All nominations
need to be supported with 10 signatures from voters living in
the polling station's jurisdiction. The defense ministry added
that signature collectors and electioneers must first obtain
permission from commanders before soliciting signatures, and
only during non-service hours. Military units are also giving
"special" classes to soldiers to educate them about elections
and election rules.


18. (U) Extra Security

Interior Minister Vladimir Naumov on January 24 issued a
directive of security measures for the election from March 10
to March 27. The directive allows police to provide assistance
to election commissions. Then Interior Ministry plans to set
up round-the-clock operation headquarters, reinforce
investigative and task teams, and use internal troops and
police school cadets to police the street. Police are to check
polling stations for fire safety and anti-theft security,
provide security for meetings between candidates and voters,
and protect international observers from theft. Police will
guard ballots during transportation and storage.


19. (U) Lukashenko Vows No Kyrgyz Scenario

President Lukashenko told journalists on January 12 that the
upcoming elections would not witness a "Kyrgyz scenario,"
because the GOB would not allow any destabilization to occur.
He claimed that the GOB would not rig the vote and would do its
utmost to avoid accusations by registering all presidential
candidates, even those who "have no right" to be registered.

Quote of the Week
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20. (U) CEC Head Yermoshina and her January 26 opinions of
Poznyak and Skrebets:

"Poznyak's participation in the presidential campaign will
liven up and obviously add some scandal should he return to
Belarus."

"If a miracle occurs and this [Skrebets'] group collects
100,000 signatures, there will be no loosening the conditions
for the man [Skrebets] held in custody at a pretrial detention
center."

KROL