POLL OF BELARUSIAN ELITES SHOWS SUPPORT FOR OPPOSITION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MINSK 000669 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI ECON BO SUBJECT: POLL OF BELARUSIAN ELITES SHOWS SUPPORT FOR OPPOSITION MINSK 00000669 001.2 OF 005 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On June 9, Oleg Manaev, head of the de- registered IISEPS sociological research center, presented the results of additional post-election polling to the Ambassador. Throughout May, IISEPS polled 60 respondents, described as "laders and experts" inside and outside Belarus' gvernment sector, on an array of issues ranging fom March's presidential election and Belarusian civil society to their attitudes toward Russia and the West. According to IISEPS data, a majority of these elites voted for opposition candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich and regard the official election results as illegitimate. In general, respondents tended to be wary about Belarus' relationship with Russia and positive regarding the United States and the European Union. However, the survey revealed some significant discord between those respondents employed in the government and non-government sectors with respect to opposition demonstrations and President Lukashenko's future. END SUMMARY. Election Redux -------------- ¶2. (SBU) "Did you vote in the presidential elections of March 19, 2006? All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Yes, I Voted Early 5% 10% - (14-18 March) Yes, I Voted On 87% 80% 93% March 19 No, I Did Not Vote 8% 10% 7% ¶3. (SBU) "For whom did you vote in the presidential elections of March 19?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Gaidukevich 2% 3% - Kozulin 7% 7% 7% Lukashenko 15% 30% - Milinkevich 52% 23% 80% Against All 8% 14% 3% Did Not Answer 13% 20% 7% Did Not Vote 3% 3% 3% ¶4. (SBU) "Do you believe that the elections were free and fair? All Government Private Sector --- ---------------------------- Yes 18% 37% - No 80% 60% 100% Did Not Answer 2% 3% - ¶5. (SBU) "The U.S., European Union, European Parliament, Council of Europe and other influential international structures did not recognize the results of the presidential elections in Belarus because they did not correspond to OSCE standards and supported opposition demands for conducting new elections. Some consider this decision fair but others do not. What do you think?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Fair Decision 72% 50% 94% Unfair Decision 17% 30% 3% Did Not Answer 11% 20% 3% Opposition Protests -------------- ¶6. (SBU) "What do you think about the mass acts of protest that occurred in Minsk and other cities after the recent presidential elections?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Approve 63% 37% 90% Disapprove 23% 40% 7% Indifferent 12% 20% 3% Did Not Answer 2% 3% - MINSK 00000669 002.2 OF 005 Lukashenko's Future -------------- ¶7. (SBU) "In your view, is Aleksandr Lukashenko who is remaining for his third term, the legitimate president of Belarus? All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Yes 22% 37% 7% No 67% 40% 93% Did Not Answer 11% 23% - ¶8. (SBU) "In your opinion, how long will Aleksandr Lukashenko remain president of Belarus?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Less Than a 5-Year Term 28% 10% 46% Through a 5-Year Term 47% 73% 20% More Than a 5-Year Term 10% 4% 17% Did Not Answer 15% 13% 17% ¶9. (SBU) "Many people in both Belarus and Russia think that for both countries it would be better if they were unified and Aleksandr Lukashenko were to become its head of a unified government. In your view, are such developments possible?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Unlikely 37% 43% 30% Impossible 61% 54% 70% Did Not Answer 2% 3% - Civil Society -------------- ¶10. (SBU) "Do you think it is possible to obtain a fair decision in the current conditions of the Belarusian court system?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Yes, It Is Possible 18% 37% - No, Almost Impossible 70% 47% 93% Did Not Answer 12% 16% 7% ¶11. (SBU) "Do you participate in activities of any kind of civic association or organization?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Yes 48% 13% 83% No 50% 87% 13% Did Not Answer 2% - 4% ¶12. (SBU) "Do you belong to any kind of POLITICAL party?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Yes 23% 7% 40% No 77% 93% 60% ¶13. (SBU) "In the course of the last year, did you learn about the results of independent research of public opinion in Belarus?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Yes 67% 40% 93% No 30% 53% 7% Did Not Answer 3% 7% - ¶14. (SBU) "Recently, new radio stations from EU countries have started broadcasting in Russian and Belarusian into Belarus. Do you listen to their broadcasts?" MINSK 00000669 003.2 OF 005 Government -------------- Listen Do Not Listen Did Not Answer -------------- -------------- -------------- European Radio for 3% 94% 3% Belarusians (Warsaw) "Belorusskie Khroniki" - 97% 3% Radio "Nemetskaya Bolna (Bonn) Belarusian Program - 97% 3% Radio "Poloniya" (Warsaw) Radio "Ratsya" 3% 94% 3% (Belostok) Radio "Baltyskaya - 97% 3% Khvalya" (Vilnius) Private Sector -------------- Listen Do Not Listen Did Not Answer -------------- -------------- -------------- European Radio for 10% 87% 3% Belarusians (Warsaw) "Belorusskie Khroniki" 20% 80% - Radio "Nemetskaya Bolna (Bonn) Belarusian Program 7% 90% 3% Radio "Poloniya" (Warsaw) Radio "Ratsya" 3% 94% 3% (Belostok) Radio "Baltyskaya 7% 90% 3% Khvalya" (Vilnius) Relations with Russia -------------- ¶15. (SBU) "In your view, in upcoming years will Belarus and Russia unite into one state or not?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Will Unite 2% 3% - Will Not Unite 83% 74% 93% Did Not Answer 15% 23% 7% ¶16. (SBU) "At the end of March, the head of Russia's Gazprom, A. Miller, announced that from 2007 Belarus will pay European prices for gas, i.e. five times more than today. How do you evaluate this demand?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Fair 85% 77% 94% Unfair 12% 20% 3% Did Not Answer 3% 3% 3% ¶17. (SBU) "What in your view should Belarus do if Russia demands payment of European prices for gas?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Demand from Russia 87% 80% 93% Higher Transit Fees for Military and Required Services That Belarus Provides Russia MINSK 00000669 004.2 OF 005 Persuade Russia Not To 10% 13% 7% Raise Prices for Its Ally Did Not Answer 3% 7% - ¶18. (SBU) "With which statement do you agree?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Belarus is a 60% 87% 33% self-sufficient country, and its economy will survive even if gas prices rise to European levels. If Russia raises gas 38% 13% 63% prices for Belarus to European levels, the Belarussian economy will collapse." Did Not Answer 2% - 4% ¶19. (SBU) "In your view, what should the country's leadership do if Russia actually raises gas prices to European levels?" All Govt. Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Agree to Become a Part of Russia 12% 17% 7% Publicize Scandals 12% 3% 20% Raise Domestic Prices 7% - 13% Undertake Economic Reforms 7% 13% 3% Impose Sanctions against Russia 7% 3% 10% Make Concessions to Russia 7% 3% 10% Other 8% 3% 13% Did Not Answer 40% 58% 24% ¶20. (SBU) "Would you suggest that the declared ban on importing Georgian and Moldovan wines and Georgian mineral water in Russia is actually protecting the consumer from low-quality goods or is this an act of POLITICAL pressure on the aforementioned countries?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Political Pressure 68% 53% 83% Consumer Protection 23% 40% 7% Did Not Answer 9% 7% 10% Relations with the West -------------- ¶21. (SBU) "Do you think that the West's RELATIONS with Belarus are hostile and that Belarusian should eschew the West?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Yes 18% 33% 3% No 77% 60% 94% Did Not Answer 5% 7% 3% ¶22. (SBU) "The EU and US are imposing new sanctions in connection with the leadership of Belarus, trying to prevent entry into EU countries and the United States of high-ranking Belarusian officials under Aleksandr Lukashenko who are considered responsible for falsifying election results and repression against participants in peaceful protests. Many think this is good, other think bad. What do you think?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Good 66% 37% 94% MINSK 00000669 005.2 OF 005 Bad 3% 7% - Indifferent 23% 43% 3% Did Not Answer 8% 13% 3% ¶23. (SBU) "In the beginning of March U.S. President George Bush in the framework of the `Belarus Democracy Act' sent Congress a special letter in which discussed how Aleksandr Lukashenko receives into his own personal funds profits from arms sales and suggests freezing his foreign bank accounts. Many consider this is good, others bad. How do you feel about George Bush's initiative?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Positive 62% 47% 77% Negative 13% 23% 3% Indifferent 20% 20% 20% Did Not Answer 5% 10% - ¶24. (SBU) "The European Commission (the EU's executive organ) announced its intention to open official representation in Minsk. How do you feel about this?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Good 66% 37% 94% Bad 3% 7% - Indifferent 23% 43% 3% Did Not Answer 8% 13% 3% ¶25. (SBU) "If you had the opportunity, would you like to work temporarily in an EU country?" All Government Private Sector --- -------------- -------------- Yes 57% 50% 63% No 43% 50% 37% Comment -------------- ¶26. (SBU) COMMENT: This latest poll by Manaev indicates more open, progressive thinking even among government elites. The relatively large percentage of GOB officials who voted for opposition candidate Milinkevich and regarded as fair the international community's rejection of the official election results was surprising. However, the significance of this poll should not be exaggerated, as the sample size is very small. KROL