POST-ELECTION PROFILE OF BELARUSIAN YOUTH GROUPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MINSK 000619

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BO
SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION PROFILE OF BELARUSIAN YOUTH GROUPS


Classified By: Ambassador George Krol for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On April 25-27 and May 3-4, Poloffs met with
representatives of five Belarusian youth organizations:
Zubr, which announced its formal dissolution in May 2006;
Third Way; Association of Belarusian Students; Volnaya
Moladz; and New Life Church. All of these groups have been
directly or indirectly involved in opposition activities
since the presidential elections in March. Belarusian
authorities have retaliated against several members of these
groups through university expulsions and imprisonment.
Nevertheless, every organization plans to continue its
activism including flashmobs, debates, and other forms of
demonstrating against the Lukashenko regime. END SUMMARY.

Zubr
--------------


2. (C) On April 25, Poloff met with Irina Tolstik, a
representative from Zubr. Tolstik estimated that
approximately 500 Zubr members participated in the March 19
demonstrations, 100 in the tent city and 500 in the March 25
demonstration. Tolstik claimed that Zubr's numbers have
increased following the demonstrations since so many of the
youth in the tent city were interested in becoming members
after the demonstrations.


4. (C) The parents of arrested demonstrators have formed
their own loose network, a Committee for the Parents of
Arrested Demonstrators. Tolstik said that there were about
400 parents involved. They first met when they were outside
the prisons looking for their children. They became enraged
when state television accused their children of being drunks
and drug addicts and have written letters to state
television, Putin, and the Belarusian Ministry of
Information. Tolstik claimed that several of them told her
that next time they will demonstrate alongside their
children.


5. (C) Although Tolstik emphasized that Zubr is
non-political, she told Poloff that Zubr supports Milinkevich
because they share the same goal: change. However, she
claimed that Zubr members would not seek spoils if the
candidate whom they supported comes to power. Although
Tolstik said that Zubr would disband and its members would go
back to their normal lives when the organization achieves its
goal, in May 2006, Zubr issued a statement on its website,
http://zubr-belarus.com, announcing the organization's
dissolution so that its membership and resources could be
subsumed by a united Belarusian opposition movement. Post has
not been able to contact Zubr leadership since and has heard
that these people have left Belarus. However, on June 6 the
Ambassador recently encountered Zubr leader Vladimir Kobets
in Kiev. Kobets said Zubr had not stopped its activities
underground and explained that the announcement of its
disbanding was aimed at convincing the BKGB that the
organization did not exist.

Third Way
--------------


6. (C) On April 26, Pavel Morosev from Third Way assessed
post-election demonstrations as a success because of high
participation levels but poorly planned. He commented that
the political parties in Belarus are not professional and
that NGOs and civil society activists are more capable than
the politicians. Morosev added that the parties supporting
Milinkevich were revealing their incompetence through their
lack of preparation for the twentieth anniversary of the
Chernobyl accident, which he considered a great opportunity
to get people out to the streets. However, he said that the
opposition parties were neither mobilizing people nor
providing clear instructions or information. Consequently,
there was confusion even over where the march should start.


7. (C) With respect to future events, Third Way planned at
the end of May to invite civil society leaders and youth
groups to participate in a debate on possible courses of
action for the future. Morosev plans to hold this round table
outside of Belarus, possibly in Kiev, for the safety of the
participants but also because it is inexpensive to travel
there, visas are not necessary, and it is a democratically
inclined country. Moreover, Third Way plans to hold two
seven-day seminars this summer (in Kiev or Crimea) for 30
up-and-coming youth activists. Experts would lecture on

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leadership, journalism, computer skills, strategic planning,
security preparedness, etc.


8. (C) Third Way plans to create parallel versions of its
website, www.3rdway.org, aimed at targeting different
audiences (Belarusian, German, French, and American). Many
of the articles/information would be the same, but each site
would be tailored to meet the specific needs/interests of the
audience. In addition, Morosev also mentioned creating a
short documentary about the post-election demonstrations.

Association of Belarusian Students
--------------


9. (C) On April 27, Poloff met with representatives from the
Association of Belarusian Students, including the head,
Alyona Talapila from Minsk State Linguistics University, and
two others, who did not want to give their last names, Nastya
from the Pedagogical University and Yevgeny from the
Belarusian National Technical University. During the
meeting, the students told Poloff that many who became active
in the opposition learned of the demonstrations and the tent
city through state television's coverage and wanted to see
for themselves what was really happening; others saw printed
or internet advertisements about the demonstration; still
others heard about it from Milinkevich's televised speech,
which the students claimed was widely watched; and finally,
other people came (especially students) because they had been
specifically told not to go or that it would be dangerous.


10. (C) The three students told Poloff that during the tent
city and the following imprisonment, the activists exchanged
contact information and kept in touch via phone and email.
To find out about upcoming events, such as flash mobs, the
three students said that they refer to the "hot news" section
of the live journal website (www.livejournal.com).
Universities block access to this site and to Milikevich's
"Za Svobodu" site on campus computers. Students can access
the sites at internet cafes and even in the dormitories,
although it is against university rules to do so. Yevgeny
told Poloff that the university confiscated the server for
his dormitory before the elections, leaving the students
without internet access for two weeks.


11. (C) All three said that the best way for the opposition
to maintain high levels of interest and participation is to
continue holding events. These events should be well
advertised and people will show up. Talapila commented that
unlike after the presidential elections in 2001, there are no
feelings of apathy or depression among the population. She
cited the flashmobs that are occurring almost daily.


12. (C) According to the representatives, students face
serious consequences for their activism. Talapila indicated
that from December to April, 26 students had been expelled
from universities for political activities. However, all
three expected more expulsions during the summer term. They
insisted that the GOB has created a "black list" of students
who participated in the post election demonstrations and will
use this list to expel more students. Yevgeny had trouble
with university officials even before the demonstrations
because he collected signatures for Milinkevich; he was
called into the rector's office for a reprimand and forced to
sign papers saying that he would obey university rules.
After he was released from jail (administrative charges) for
paricipating in the demonstration, the KGB searched hi dorm
room, confiscated some computer discs, and pressured him to
work as an informant.

Volnaya Moladz
--------------


13. (C) On May 3, Poloffs met with two coordinators, Matvey
Chistik and Mikhail Sheremet, from Volnaya Moladz (VM). The
organization was founded at the end of 2004 by young
activists that had been abroad or who had friends who had
been abroad and wanted to see Belarus change to become more
like its European and Western neighbors. VM is comprised of
young activists (under 30 years old) and students and has
approximately 200 active members. Although the majority of
VM members are located in Minsk, the organization has
branches and members throughout the country.


14. (C) According to the VM representatives, VM cooperated
in the past with Zubr and Malady Front, but prefers now to

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work with youth organizations, such as Razom, that emerged
following the elections. (Note: Poloff asked for Razom's
contact info, but the representatives would not give it to
her, claiming that the group is always changing their contact
info to avoid harassment and persecution.)


15. (C) VM refuses to take part in negative PR campaigns or
violent actions. The representatives said that they would
not even write graffiti on public buildings since they
believe that the majority of Belarusians disapprove of such
actions. (Note: This meeting occurred one day before the
trial of Malady Front activist Artur Finkevich who was
sentenced to two years of restricted freedom for
anti-Lukashenko graffiti.) VM focuses on distributing
information; holding flash-mobs (they have done 7-8 since the
elections -- they advertise these flash mobs on their
website, www.volniya.org, and via cell phone); and conduct
educational seminars every two or three weeks with the
purpose of persuading people that they are not alone and need
not be afraid.


16. (C) Like Zubr, VM supported Milinkevich. They collected
signatures, held signs/pickets, etc., and participated in the
post-election demonstrations and the tent city.
Approximately 20 of their members were arrested during the
tent city raid and received prison sentences ranging from
3-15 days. Several VM members have been expelled from
universities, including one coordinator who was expelled the
week after the elections and now studies in Vilnius.

New Life Church
--------------


17. (C) On May 4, Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff met with New
Life Church (NLC) youth group leader Ivan Mulyan. The
Protestant NLC youth group consists of approximately 100
members ages 16-25 years old. Mulyan said that the group has
approximately 50 active members. The group mainly meets to
pray and worship, but also tries to introduce non-Christians
to their Church.


18. (C) Mulyan said that when NLC members learned of the
tent city on October Square, they immediately joined the
demonstrators because "they felt that they belonged there."
They were joined by other religious groups on the Square,
including the Church of Jesus Christ, the Church of John the
Baptist and the Living Word Church (Grodno). Mulyan said
that the group numbered between 20 and 25 persons.


19. (C) When P/E Chief asked whether youth group or church
leadership encouraged the members of the congregation to
participate in the post-election demonstrations, Mulyan
answered that the pastor mentioned the demonstrations one
time, but never ordered or encouraged the congregation to
participate in them. The leadership understood the risks
involved in participating in these demonstrations and would
not order anyone to attend. They instead simply
spoke/preached the truth about the regime and let the people
come to their own conclusions because it would be
irresponsible to tell people what to do. Mulyan insisted that
everyone made their own choice about whether or not to attend
the demonstrations. He said that the people did not need any
encouragement; they are tired of the lies that the regime
constantly tells.

COMMENT
--------------


20. (C) COMMENT: The political opposition youth movement in
Belarus, like the Belarusian opposition movement in general,
appears to be in a period of chastened circumspection
following the post-election demonstrations and the GOB's
crackdown. However, the groups still appear to be
maintaining regular contacts among their members. This in
itself is a positive sign. Even when the leaders of youth
organizations eschew overt political activism, e.g., NLC
leader Ivan Mulyan, these organizations act as word-of-mouth
conduits for disseminating opposition information and
networks for recruiting new anti-Lukashenko activists. These
functions are particularly important since internet and
telephone communications are closely monitored by the
universities and other organs of state power.

KROL


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Krol