BELARUS TO BAN U.S., CANADIAN OVERFLIGHTS

UNCLAS MINSK 000558

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAIR PBTS PREL PGOV BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS TO BAN U.S., CANADIAN OVERFLIGHTS

Ref: Minsk 456

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED: PROTECT ACCORDINGLY


1. (U) Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko during his May 23
presidential address to the National Assembly ordered his
government to take "adequate" measures against the U.S. and Canada
for denying PM Sergey Sidorsky's plane from refueling in their
territories en route to and on the return from Cuba on April 20 and
April 23 (reftel). Lukashenko called the Canadian and U.S.
refusals "full savagery" and suggested Belarus close its airspace
to Canadian and U.S. air traffic. "Let them fly over the Baltic
States or Ukraine. We will probably lose something, but we should
show our pride," stated Lukashenko.


2. (U) On May 25, MFA spokesperson Andrei Popov claimed
Lukashenko's decision was based on "the principle of reciprocity,"
but could not elaborate on the technicalities of the ban,
specifically whether it affected just official flights or
commercial flights as well. The State Aviation Committee estimated
Belarus would lose approximately USD 200,000 annually if a ban,
including commercial flights, went into effect.


3. (U) The over-flight ban is just one the GOB's overall responses
to the U.S.' and West's visa bans and asset freezes against
Belarus' leadership for human rights abuses and the 2006
presidential elections condemned by the OSCE as fraudulent. During
his presidential address, Lukashenko criticized the West's actions
as "far-fetched" and groundless, and rhetorically asked what
international court had declared Belarusian officials criminals.
Lukashenko directed the GOB contest the restrictive measures to
international human rights courts. Popov refused to comment on the
details of the GOB's appeal, but opined that Lukashenko's directive
was "rightful." According to Popov, the West's restrictive
measures against Belarus "directly violate the spirit and letters
of the Helsinki agreements," particularly the international
community's obligation to ensure the freedom of movement.

Comment
--------------


4. (SBU) The GOB's rhetoric about over-flight bans and appeals to
international courts seems, for the moment, just bark and not yet
bite. Popov's vague statements and lack of detail about the GOB's
course of action leads us to believe that the bureaucracy has not
kept up with Lukashenko's latest whim. On May 26, EconOff called
the U.S. Desk at the MFA to inquire whether the over-flight ban
would affect official flights, U.S. commercial carriers, or foreign
commercial carriers code-sharing with U.S. airlines. Our MFA
colleague claimed to know only as much as the news had reported.
He said he would "try" to inform the Embassy if he received more
information and "hoped" the GOB would officially inform the Embassy
before closing its airspace. Post will continue to follow any
developments.

KROL