BELARUS TO BAN U.S., CANADIAN OVERFLIGHTS

UNCLAS MINSK 000558 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAIR PBTS PREL PGOV BO SUBJECT: BELARUS TO BAN U.S., CANADIAN OVERFLIGHTS Ref: Minsk 456 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED: PROTECT ACCORDINGLY ¶1. (U) Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko during his May 23 presidential address to the National Assembly ordered his government to take "adequate" measures against the U.S. and Canada for denying PM Sergey Sidorsky's plane from refueling in their territories en route to and on the return from Cuba on April 20 and April 23 (reftel). Lukashenko called the Canadian and U.S. refusals "full savagery" and suggested Belarus close its airspace to Canadian and U.S. air traffic. "Let them fly over the Baltic States or Ukraine. We will probably lose something, but we should show our pride," stated Lukashenko. ¶2. (U) On May 25, MFA spokesperson Andrei Popov claimed Lukashenko's decision was based on "the principle of reciprocity," but could not elaborate on the technicalities of the ban, specifically whether it affected just official flights or commercial flights as well. The State Aviation Committee estimated Belarus would lose approximately USD 200,000 annually if a ban, including commercial flights, went into effect. ¶3. (U) The over-flight ban is just one the GOB's overall responses to the U.S.' and West's visa bans and asset freezes against Belarus' leadership for human rights abuses and the 2006 presidential elections condemned by the OSCE as fraudulent. During his presidential address, Lukashenko criticized the West's actions as "far-fetched" and groundless, and rhetorically asked what international court had declared Belarusian officials criminals. Lukashenko directed the GOB contest the restrictive measures to international human rights courts. Popov refused to comment on the details of the GOB's appeal, but opined that Lukashenko's directive was "rightful." According to Popov, the West's restrictive measures against Belarus "directly violate the spirit and letters of the Helsinki agreements," particularly the international community's obligation to ensure the freedom of movement. Comment -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The GOB's rhetoric about over-flight bans and appeals to international courts seems, for the moment, just bark and not yet bite. Popov's vague statements and lack of detail about the GOB's course of action leads us to believe that the bureaucracy has not kept up with Lukashenko's latest whim. On May 26, EconOff called the U.S. Desk at the MFA to inquire whether the over-flight ban would affect official flights, U.S. commercial carriers, or foreign commercial carriers code-sharing with U.S. airlines. Our MFA colleague claimed to know only as much as the news had reported. He said he would "try" to inform the Embassy if he received more information and "hoped" the GOB would officially inform the Embassy before closing its airspace. Post will continue to follow any developments. KROL