KAZAKHS ON LUKASHENKO'S HEALTH, CORRUPTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000530 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL BO SUBJECT: KAZAKHS ON LUKASHENKO'S HEALTH, CORRUPTION REF: 05 MINSK 1500 Classified By: AMBASSADOR GEORGE KROL FOR REASONS 1.5 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: On April 27, Pol Chief met with the Kazakh Political Counselor, Bakhram Auanasov, who claimed to have information that Lukashenko received treatment by Russian doctors after the election, possibly for prostate cancer or for exhaustion. He also explained that Lukashenko remains in power by offering lucrative positions in state companies to nomenclature and their families, allowing them to steal from the state in exchange for their support. The opposition cannot offer such valuable positions, and therefore Auanasov stated would not be able to attract the support of the nomenclature. Because of current Russian economic pressures, he did not think Lukashenko would complete his current term in office. End summary. Lukashenko's Health -------------- ¶2. (C) Claiming his embassy has strong contacts throughout the GOB, Auanasov told Pol Chief that his government had information that Lukashenko had summoned three doctors from the Burdinko Institute military hospital in Moscow immediately following the presidential elections. Auanasov did not know the exact nature of Lukashenko's illness, but he said it could be explained by two causes. First, Auanasov stated that Lukashenko could be suffering from prostate cancer, and claimed Lukashenko secretly flew to the Czech Republic sometime last year to receive treatment for the illness. (Note: The Kazakh Embassy, which claims it maintains close relations with GOB officials, passed similar information to a Pol/Econ contact last year. See reftel for details. Post believes this information that Lukashenko flew to the Czech Republic last year to be highly doubtful.) Auanasov further asserted that after twelve years of personally running almost every aspect of the government apparatus, even the most energetic and ch arismatic individuals would be extremely fatigued. Auanasov concluded that Lukashenko might simply not have the strength to complete his third term. Regime Stability Depends on Corruption -------------- ¶3. (C) Auanasov maintained that profiteering from systemic corruption is what keeps the governing class faithful to the president. He stated that Lukashenko buys the nomenclature's loyalty by allowing them or their family members to receive interests in state-run companies, which they use to line their pockets. Lukashenko thereby keeps the nomenclature financially satisfied, which Auanasov argued is preventing the opposition from attracting any nomenclature support. On the other hand, Auanasov believed that if Russia succeeds in forcing economic concessions out of Lukashenko, the regime will lose its ability to keep the nomenclature satisfied and Lukashenko could fall from power. He stated that Lukashenko likely realizes this, and is seeking financial and security guarantees from Moscow in exchange for offering to sell Beltransgaz or make other economic concessions. Auanasov predicted that Lukashenko would not remain in power for more than a couple of years as a result of Russian pressures. Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) Auanasov's claims about Lukashenko's health are impossible to verify, and they compete with a plethora of rumors perpetuated by people supposedly well-connected about why Lukashenko disappeared after the elections. However, Auanasov's suppositions on corruption are very plausible. The construction boom in luxury housing as well as the not insignificant number of high-end cars in Minsk strongly suggests that individuals are sharing in the wealth generated by oil price margins. Krol