KAZAKHS ON LUKASHENKO'S HEALTH, CORRUPTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000530

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL BO
SUBJECT: KAZAKHS ON LUKASHENKO'S HEALTH, CORRUPTION

REF: 05 MINSK 1500

Classified By: AMBASSADOR GEORGE KROL FOR REASONS 1.5 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: On April 27, Pol Chief met with the Kazakh
Political Counselor, Bakhram Auanasov, who claimed to have
information that Lukashenko received treatment by Russian
doctors after the election, possibly for prostate cancer or
for exhaustion. He also explained that Lukashenko remains in
power by offering lucrative positions in state companies to
nomenclature and their families, allowing them to steal from
the state in exchange for their support. The opposition
cannot offer such valuable positions, and therefore Auanasov
stated would not be able to attract the support of the
nomenclature. Because of current Russian economic pressures,
he did not think Lukashenko would complete his current term
in office. End summary.


Lukashenko's Health
--------------


2. (C) Claiming his embassy has strong contacts throughout
the GOB, Auanasov told Pol Chief that his government had
information that Lukashenko had summoned three doctors from
the Burdinko Institute military hospital in Moscow
immediately following the presidential elections. Auanasov
did not know the exact nature of Lukashenko's illness, but he
said it could be explained by two causes. First, Auanasov
stated that Lukashenko could be suffering from prostate
cancer, and claimed Lukashenko secretly flew to the Czech
Republic sometime last year to receive treatment for the
illness. (Note: The Kazakh Embassy, which claims it
maintains close relations with GOB officials, passed similar
information to a Pol/Econ contact last year. See reftel for
details. Post believes this information that Lukashenko flew
to the Czech Republic last year to be highly doubtful.)
Auanasov further asserted that after twelve years of
personally running almost every aspect of the government
apparatus, even the most energetic and ch
arismatic individuals would be extremely fatigued. Auanasov
concluded that Lukashenko might simply not have the strength
to complete his third term.


Regime Stability Depends on Corruption
--------------


3. (C) Auanasov maintained that profiteering from systemic
corruption is what keeps the governing class faithful to the
president. He stated that Lukashenko buys the nomenclature's
loyalty by allowing them or their family members to receive
interests in state-run companies, which they use to line
their pockets. Lukashenko thereby keeps the nomenclature
financially satisfied, which Auanasov argued is preventing
the opposition from attracting any nomenclature support. On
the other hand, Auanasov believed that if Russia succeeds in
forcing economic concessions out of Lukashenko, the regime
will lose its ability to keep the nomenclature satisfied and
Lukashenko could fall from power. He stated that Lukashenko
likely realizes this, and is seeking financial and security
guarantees from Moscow in exchange for offering to sell
Beltransgaz or make other economic concessions. Auanasov
predicted that Lukashenko would not remain in power for more
than a couple of years as a result of Russian pressures.


Comment
--------------


4. (C) Auanasov's claims about Lukashenko's health are
impossible to verify, and they compete with a plethora of
rumors perpetuated by people supposedly well-connected about
why Lukashenko disappeared after the elections. However,
Auanasov's suppositions on corruption are very plausible.
The construction boom in luxury housing as well as the not
insignificant number of high-end cars in Minsk strongly
suggests that individuals are sharing in the wealth generated
by oil price margins.
Krol