NOVAK POST-ELECTION RESULTS MIRROR THOSE OF

UNCLAS SECTION 04 OF 06 MINSK 000501 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO SUBJECT: NOVAK POST-ELECTION RESULTS MIRROR THOSE OF IISEPS: LUKASHENKO WON 54 PERCENT OF VOTE *********************** * Missing Section 001 * *********************** *********************** * Missing Section 002 * *********************** *********************** * Missing Section 003 * *********************** MINSK 00000501 004 OF 006 Yes, once 11.4 No, not once 59.4 "Where, in your opinion, does the population live better - Belarus or the EU?" % EU 45.8 Belarus 39.5 "Do you ever discuss with your family, friends, and colleagues about how people live in the EU?" % Yes, often 22.4 Yes, sometimes 52.2 No 25.4 "Do you think that you know enough about the EU in order to decide whether Belarus should join the EU? And NATO?" EU NATO -------------- -------------- Yes 36.0(%) 31.3 No 55.7 61.4 "Do you think that one day Belarus will join the EU?" % No, never 31.7 Yes, in no less than 10 years 29.4 Yes, within the next 10 years 13.5 "Name five countries that, in your opinion, are friendly to Belarus and five countries that are not (more than one choice):" Friendly Not Friendly -------------- -------------- Russia 85.1(%) 1.4 China 43.1 2.1 Ukraine 24.9 13.5 Kazakhstan 23.2 2.3 Cuba 20.3 2.4 Iran 13.3 9.8 Latvia 9.2 9.2 Iraq 7.9 10.9 North Korea 6.2 2.5 Georgia 4.2 23.8 USA 4.1 74.3 Britain 2.6 21.6 Czech Republic 2.4 4.0 "In the beginning of March, U.S. President George Bush, within the framework of the Belarusian Democracy Act, sent Congress a letter saying President Lukashenko's personal fund receives income from the sale of weapons and suggested Lukashenko's foreign bank accounts be frozen. Some people think this is a good move and others do not. How do you feel about Bush's initiative?" % Positive 28.2 Negative 38.2 I do not care 25.9 "Belarusian television often talks about a conspiracy in which Western countries under U.S. leadership are trying to organize an overthrow of power in Belarus. Do you believe in this conspiracy?" % Yes 41.6 No 47.2 "The EU and U.S. are bringing new sanctions against Belarus' leadership - including visa bans to high-level GOB officials and Lukashenko - who are considered responsible for the falsification of presidential election results and repressions against participants of peaceful demonstrations. Many of our citizens think this is a good move and others do not. What do you think?" % Good 16.5 Bad 53.9 I do not care 22.8 MINSK 00000501 005 OF 006 "More than a thousand demonstrators, most of them young, who protested against the March 19 presidential election results were arrested and sentenced to three to 15 days in jail. The leaders of several European countries announced that if student participants in those demonstrations were expelled from Belarusian universities, then they could continue their studies abroad. What do you think of this announcement?" % I accept it 46.3 I do not accept it 41.6 Russian Union -------------- ¶6. Similar to IISEPS' last survey, Belarusians indicated to NOVAK that they prefer a closer union with Russia to increased relations with the West. A bizarre twist is that many respondents believe it is in Belarus' and Russia's best interests to let Lukashenko rule over the union state. "Would you want the USSR resurrected?" % No 63.4 Yes 26.7 "It is possible that Belarus and Russia would soon hold a referendum on the Constitution Act, which would open the path for closer integration of the two governments. How would you vote on this referendum?" % For 37.8 Against 14.8 Will not vote 7.1 Depends on the circumstances 36.4 "Many people in Belarus and Russia believe it would be better for both countries if they united and Lukashenko became the leader of the combined governments. What do you think?" % I would like this 35.5 It does not concern me 17.4 I would not want this 36.0 "What is the historical path, in your opinion, of Belarus? Of Russia?" Belarus Russia -------------- -------------- General path of European civilization 17.3(%) 29.5 A return to the Soviet path 25.5 19.2 Its own, unique path 56.8 51.2 Gas Price Increases -------------- ¶7. Many respondents claimed that a rise in Russian natural gas prices would not destroy the Belarusian economy, but the majority view GAZPROM's price hike negatively and even more would disapprove of a Russian takeover of Belarus' gas transport industry. "At the end of March, the head of Russia's GAZPROM A. Miller announced that beginning in 2007 Belarus would pay European prices for natural gas - a five-fold increase. What do you think of this demand?" % The prices are fair. We need to pay the true price for goods 30.8 The prices are not fair. Russia is a close ally and should not demand such a high price from Belarus 61.3 "In your opinion, in what conditions would it be worth it for Belarus to sell its gas transport system Beltransgaz?" % Beltransgaz should not be sold under any circumstance 82.0 It can be sold for market price 16.9 "With which line do you agree with?" % Belarus- an abundant country with an economy that would survive even after Russia raises gas prices 53.6 MINSK 00000501 006 OF 006 If Russia raises gas prices to European levels, the Belarusian economy will collapse 45.5 Surveys and Information -------------- ¶8. "In the last year have you become familiar with (through the press, leaflets, conversations with colleagues) results of independent surveys of society's opinion?" % Yes 21.7 No 73.9 "Do you use the internet?" % Yes, daily 5.0 Yes, several times a week 8.0 Yes, several times a month 7.7 Yes, several times a year 6.4 No 68.8 "What sites do you visit the most?" % Russian 19.7 Belarusian 17.2 European 9.2 "What language do you use in daily conversations?" % Belarus 3.8 Russian 62.2 Russian and Belarusian 12.7 A mix of both 21.0 Krol