NOVAK POST-ELECTION RESULTS MIRROR THOSE OF

UNCLAS SECTION 04 OF 06 MINSK 000501

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: NOVAK POST-ELECTION RESULTS MIRROR THOSE OF
IISEPS: LUKASHENKO WON 54 PERCENT OF VOTE

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MINSK 00000501 004 OF 006


Yes, once 11.4
No, not once 59.4

"Where, in your opinion, does the population live better -
Belarus or the EU?"

%
EU 45.8
Belarus 39.5

"Do you ever discuss with your family, friends, and
colleagues about how people live in the EU?"

%
Yes, often 22.4
Yes, sometimes 52.2
No 25.4

"Do you think that you know enough about the EU in order to
decide whether Belarus should join the EU? And NATO?"

EU NATO
-------------- --------------
Yes 36.0(%) 31.3
No 55.7 61.4

"Do you think that one day Belarus will join the EU?"

%
No, never 31.7
Yes, in no less than 10 years 29.4
Yes, within the next 10 years 13.5

"Name five countries that, in your opinion, are friendly to
Belarus and five countries that are not (more than one
choice):"

Friendly Not Friendly
-------------- --------------
Russia 85.1(%) 1.4
China 43.1 2.1
Ukraine 24.9 13.5
Kazakhstan 23.2 2.3
Cuba 20.3 2.4
Iran 13.3 9.8
Latvia 9.2 9.2
Iraq 7.9 10.9
North Korea 6.2 2.5
Georgia 4.2 23.8
USA 4.1 74.3
Britain 2.6 21.6
Czech Republic 2.4 4.0

"In the beginning of March, U.S. President George Bush,
within the framework of the Belarusian Democracy Act, sent
Congress a letter saying President Lukashenko's personal fund
receives income from the sale of weapons and suggested
Lukashenko's foreign bank accounts be frozen. Some people
think this is a good move and others do not. How do you feel
about Bush's initiative?"

%
Positive 28.2
Negative 38.2
I do not care 25.9

"Belarusian television often talks about a conspiracy in
which Western countries under U.S. leadership are trying to
organize an overthrow of power in Belarus. Do you believe in
this conspiracy?"

%
Yes 41.6
No 47.2

"The EU and U.S. are bringing new sanctions against Belarus'
leadership - including visa bans to high-level GOB officials
and Lukashenko - who are considered responsible for the
falsification of presidential election results and
repressions against participants of peaceful demonstrations.
Many of our citizens think this is a good move and others do
not. What do you think?"

%
Good 16.5
Bad 53.9
I do not care 22.8


MINSK 00000501 005 OF 006


"More than a thousand demonstrators, most of them young, who
protested against the March 19 presidential election results
were arrested and sentenced to three to 15 days in jail. The
leaders of several European countries announced that if
student participants in those demonstrations were expelled
from Belarusian universities, then they could continue their
studies abroad. What do you think of this announcement?"

%
I accept it 46.3
I do not accept it 41.6

Russian Union
--------------


6. Similar to IISEPS' last survey, Belarusians indicated to
NOVAK that they prefer a closer union with Russia to
increased relations with the West. A bizarre twist is that
many respondents believe it is in Belarus' and Russia's best
interests to let Lukashenko rule over the union state.

"Would you want the USSR resurrected?"

%
No 63.4
Yes 26.7

"It is possible that Belarus and Russia would soon hold a
referendum on the Constitution Act, which would open the path
for closer integration of the two governments. How would you
vote on this referendum?"

%
For 37.8
Against 14.8
Will not vote 7.1
Depends on the circumstances 36.4

"Many people in Belarus and Russia believe it would be better
for both countries if they united and Lukashenko became the
leader of the combined governments. What do you think?"

%
I would like this 35.5
It does not concern me 17.4
I would not want this 36.0

"What is the historical path, in your opinion, of Belarus?
Of Russia?"

Belarus Russia
-------------- --------------
General path of European civilization 17.3(%) 29.5
A return to the Soviet path 25.5 19.2
Its own, unique path 56.8 51.2

Gas Price Increases
--------------


7. Many respondents claimed that a rise in Russian natural
gas prices would not destroy the Belarusian economy, but the
majority view GAZPROM's price hike negatively and even more
would disapprove of a Russian takeover of Belarus' gas
transport industry.

"At the end of March, the head of Russia's GAZPROM A. Miller
announced that beginning in 2007 Belarus would pay European
prices for natural gas - a five-fold increase. What do you
think of this demand?"

%
The prices are fair. We need to pay the true price
for goods 30.8
The prices are not fair. Russia is a close ally and
should not demand such a high price from Belarus 61.3

"In your opinion, in what conditions would it be worth it for
Belarus to sell its gas transport system Beltransgaz?"

%
Beltransgaz should not be sold under any circumstance 82.0
It can be sold for market price 16.9

"With which line do you agree with?"

%
Belarus- an abundant country with an economy that
would survive even after Russia raises gas prices 53.6

MINSK 00000501 006 OF 006


If Russia raises gas prices to European levels, the
Belarusian economy will collapse 45.5

Surveys and Information
--------------


8. "In the last year have you become familiar with (through
the press, leaflets, conversations with colleagues) results
of independent surveys of society's opinion?"
%
Yes 21.7
No 73.9

"Do you use the internet?"

%
Yes, daily 5.0
Yes, several times a week 8.0
Yes, several times a month 7.7
Yes, several times a year 6.4
No 68.8

"What sites do you visit the most?"

%
Russian 19.7
Belarusian 17.2
European 9.2

"What language do you use in daily conversations?"

%
Belarus 3.8
Russian 62.2
Russian and Belarusian 12.7
A mix of both 21.0
Krol