HRDF POLLING SUCCESSFUL, LEAFLETS SEIZED

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000464

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
DEPT FOR DRL/PHD CUMBERLAND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2016
TAGS: PHUM KDEM BO
SUBJECT: HRDF POLLING SUCCESSFUL, LEAFLETS SEIZED

REF: A. 05 MINSK 591

B. MINSK 286

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4(B,D
)


1. (C) This is the second report on implementation of a DRL
grant to provide independent opinion polling in Belarus.
Under the auspices of a DRL Human Rights and Democracy Fund
(HRDF) small grant (ref A),the IISEPS polling service
conducted the third of six opinion polls in late March/early
April (polling results septel). IISEPS conducted the first
such poll in early December and the second in February.
IISEPS' head Oleg Manaev reported his organization
experienced fewer problems from authorities in conducting
this poll, compared to those faced in the earlier polls. He
attributed this positive change to authorities relaxing after
the March 19 election. Unlike the earlier polls, this time
IISEPS issued a press release announcing the polls' main
findings, namely that the regime likely inflated Lukashenko's
true support by 20% through electoral falsification. Manaev
did not know what sort of consequences this would lead to
with the regime. (Note: IISEPS was closed by the Supreme
Court in April 2005 and o
pinion polling is now strictly controlled by the GOB.)


2. (C) As a corollary to the HRDF grant, the Czech government
gave USD 18,000 to the Vyasna human rights NGO to distribute
these polling results. Vyasna reported that the BKGB
immediately seized 30,000 of the 100,000 broadsheet leaflets
they printed for distribution. Vyasna succeeded in
distributing the other 70,000 leaflets between March 12 and
18, immediately before the election, in eight cities across
Belarus.
Krol