Post-Election Polling: Lukashenko Wins, but Not by As Much

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 MINSK 000463

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SUBJECT: Post-Election Polling: Lukashenko Wins, but Not by As Much

Ref: Minsk 285

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1. Summary: The IISEPS polling service recently unveiled the
results of the first post-election poll. IISEPS found that about
64% of the electorate voted for Lukashenko, 20% less than the
regime claims. Despite this discrepancy, a slim majority of
Belarusians view the elections as free and fair. Despite official
repression, mass arrests and ceaseless regime propaganda, the
opposition campaigns reached up to a quarter of voters, although
most had decided for whom to vote long before the elecdion. Most
Belarusians do not believe the worst elements of state propaganda,
even though over 50% of Belarusians c/nsider themselves to be
Soviet, rather than EUropean, people. Most Belarusians have heard
of the post-election demonstrations, even if most do not approve of
the protests and very few would be willing to participate
themselves. A large majkrity of Belarusians continue to rely on
state media for information, although growing numbers use the
internet and watch EuroNews or satellite talevision. Very few have
ever listened to radio transmitted from abroad. End summary.


2. Kn April 21, Oleg Manaev, head of the de-registered IISEPS
sociological research center, presefted the results ofpost-
election polling to Ambassador. IISEPS conducted this polling
between 27 March and 6 April, polling 1,496 respondents across the
country. Manaev said the polling has a margin of error of three
percent.


-------------- -
Election Results: Lukashenko Wins, but by Less
-------------- -


3. IISEPS asked several questions to gauge the percentage of voters
who supported Lukashenko. Each question found that around 63%
voted for Lukashenko, some7hat less phan the officially annoqnced
83%. Manaev stated that the results of this poll, particularly
regarding Lukashenko's support, vary little from IISEPS last poll,
cknducted in FebruarY (reftel). At that time 58.6% said they would
vote for Lukashenko and 16.5% for Milinkevich. The Febrqary poll
was conducted just before it became legal for campaign teams to
start meeting vOters and passing out literature, demonstrating that
the campaigns themselves had little influence on how Belarusians
voted.

Who did you vote for in the March 19 presidential election?

Lukashenko 63.6%
Milinkevich 20.6
Kozulin 4.8
Gaidukevich 2.1
Against all 3.4
Do not walt to answer 5.4


If tomorrow there wera new presidential elections, for whom would
You vote? (write in answEr)

Lukashenko Q0.3%
Milinkevich 18.4
Kozulin 3.7
Gaidukevich 1.0
Shushkevich 0.6
6 others each received less than 0.5%


Lukashenko again became President. Was that what you personally
wanted?

Yes 59.8%
No 33.4


Did the candidate for whom you voted become President?

Yes 61.4%
No 30.5


Do you trust the President of Belarus?

Yes 59.9%
No 31.2


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Elections Were Free and Fair
-------------- , --------------

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4. A majority of Belarusians believes the March 19 presidential
election was held in a free and fair manner, although roughly 30%
consistently stated that their was falsification. Far more
attributed falsification to Lukashenko's campaign than to that of
the other candidates.

Do you think the March 19, 2006 presidential elections were free
and fair?

Yes 57.9%
No 32.9


Do you think that election results announced by the Central
Election Committee were actual or falsified results?

Without a doubt actual 38.1%
More or less actual 25.6
More or less falsified 14.1
Without a doubt falsified 14.9


The Committee of Youth Organizations and the EKOOM polling center
conducted an election survey at the entrances of polling stations
(exit polls). Their results practically coincided with the
official election results. Do you trust the results of this exit
poll?

Yes, because they gave citizens objective information about
the voting process and results 45.6%

No, because they knowingly presented distorted information
in the interests of those who paid for their research 29.9


Did you experience any pressure forcing you to vote for a
particular candidate?

Yes 14.0%
No 81.9


If you participated in the elections, did you vote early (14-18
March) or on Sunday March 19?

Voted early 25.7%
Voted on Election Day 65.8


In your opinion, did all candidates have equal conditions during
the course of elections?

Yes 48.3%
No 43.1


If you noticed any violations, then on behalf of whom, in your
opinion, were these violations committed?

Lukashenko 37.1%
Milinkevich 6.3
Kozulin 3.8
Gaidukevich 1.4
For all candidates 2.4
No violations noticed 31.7


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Opposition Campaign Reached Some Voters
--------------


5. Most respondents replied that their main sources of information
are those controlled by the government, television, newspapers and
radio. Word-of-mouth also served as an important means of
spreading information, and opposition candidates reached one-fifth
of voters with their campaign materials (Lukashenko's team did not
distribute any flyers). This can be considered a success given the
short amount of time the opposition had to campaign and the series
repression and mass arrests they suffered from. Manaev pointed out
that most respondents claimed they decided who to vote for well in
advance of the election, but nearly one-third did not decide until
the last week - meaning they were open to influence by the
campaigns.

From what sources did you receive information on candidates and
their programs?

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Television 69.6%
Newspapers 49.7
Colleagues, acquaintances and neighbors 32.1
Radio 24.0
Various printed materials left in mail box 22.6
Campaign flyers and posters 21.1
Meetings with candidates and their proxies 6.4
Bosses 5.5
No information received 5.1


Whose informational material did you receive? Whose representatives
did you meet with?

Milinkevich 25.6%
Kozulin 14.2
Lukashenko 9.9
Gaidukevich 3.6


Did you see the presidential candidates' speeches on TV?

Yes, the February 22 speeches 11.3%
Yes, the March 2 speeches 15.3
Yes, both the February and March speeches 36.3
No, did not watch any of them 37.1


Which of the speeches gave you the biggest impression?

Milinkevich's speech 15.8%
Kozulin's speech 13.7
Gaidukevich's speech 2.2
No impression 35.9
[Note: Lukashenko did not make an official campaign speech, but did
dominate most news broadcasts.]


Did these speeches influence your decision on who to vote for?

Did not influence 35.9%
Influenced to a degree 18.8
Greatly influenced 9.3


Did you have enough information on candidates for president in
order to make a sure choice?

Yes 71.6%
No 27.4


When did you decide who you would vote for?

Long before the elections 68.3%
On the eve of elections (5-6 days) 23.6
On Election Day 8.0


What two questions are more important to you when deciding who to
vote for? (Only two choices allowed)

General quality of life 43.9%
Democracy and an independent Belarus 21.5
Places of work 19.9
Price growth 19.2
Improving health care 18.2
Payment of pensions 16.3
Demands of freedom in Belarus 9.0
Corruption in society 8.6
Relations with Russia 7.4
Education 7.4
Relations with the West 6.2
Threat of terrorism 5.9
Crime 5.2
Freedom of religion 0.9


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Public Acceptance of Propaganda
--------------


6. Most respondents, despite their support and vote for Lukashenko,
do not accept some of the regime's propaganda. Most did not
believe the head of the BKGB's pre-election statements that the
opposition was planning a coup and that peaceful demonstrations are

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terrorism. Most also view the arrests of opposition activists as
being politically motivated.

Recently many people have said that external forces are trying to
create a "colored revolution" in Belarus. In your opinion, do such
claims conform to reality or not?

Yes, Absolutely True 22.1%
More or Less True 32.8
More or Less Not True 22.3
No, Absolutely False 11.1


On March 16 the head of the BKGB, Sergey Sukharenko, publicly
announced that some were "planning a violent takeover of power
under the pretext of presidential elections." Do you agree with
this announcement?

Yes 30.9%
No 49.1


Sukharenko also announced that to actively participate in
demonstrations protesting presidential election results would be
viewed as terrorism. Do you agree that mass protests are acts of
terrorism?

Yes 26.8%
No 58.1


Before the elections, several representatives of democratic forces,
who openly express their disagreement with the current political
system, were arrested for preparing terrorist acts. Do you think
their arrests were politically motivated or do you think they were
arrested based on real facts that they were preparing terrorist
acts?

Their arrests were politically motivated 57.0%
Their arrests were based on real evidence 26.3


At the All Belarusian People's Assembly held in the beginning of
March in Minsk, Lukashenko said that the country's political and
economical course of development was correct and would not be
changed in the next five years. Do you agree with his statement?

Yes 54.2%
No 36.4


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Protests of Election Results
--------------


7. A majority of Belarusians have heard of the post-election
demonstrations, but a slim majority side with Lukashenko in
opposing western and opposition calls for new elections and believe
that Lukashenko's victory will unite Belarus. However, only a
small minority said they would take part in demonstrations
themselves.

Did you know that beginning on March 19 on October Square in Minsk
occurred a protest against the falsified election results,
involving thousands of people who demanded freedom in the country
and a second vote?

Yes 69.4%
No 26.9


What do you think of this act of protest?

Accept it 20.4%
Do not accept it 45.9


The U.S., EU, European Parliament, European Commission and other
influential international structures did not accept the
presidential election results in Belarus because they "did not meet
OSCE standards." These organizations supported the opposition's
demands on holding a second vote. Some consider this decision
fair, but others do not. What do you think?

Fair decision 27.3%
Unfair decision 54.2


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Lukashenko's victory at the elections, in your opinion, further
united Belarusian society or deepened the division?

Further united society 55.9%
Deepened the division 27.1


How do you view participation in public actions to express your
opinions?

Took Part Ready to Would not
Take Part Take Part
Meetings, demonstrations 5.8% 10.9% 78.1%
Strikes 1.1 10.0 82.7
Hunger strikes 0.3 4.7 89.2
Armed resistance 0.6 4.5 88.0



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Socio-Economic Background of the Elections
--------------


8. IISEPS found that a majority of respondents are pleased with the
direction their country is taking, although a significant minority
indicated otherwise, believe it is hard for youth to find a decent
job, and would emigrate if given the chance.

How has your life and that of your family changed since 2001?

Changed for the better 38.9%
Did not change 44.0
Changed for the worse 15.5


In your view, in general is our country developing in the correct
or incorrect direction?

Correct direction 59.5%
Incorrect direction 30.7


Can youth today have a successful career in Belarus?

Yes 54.4%
No 30.1
Don't know 15.5


Would you want to emigrate to another country?

No 61.6%
To the U.S. 9.1
To Germany 7.6
To Russia 3.9
To Poland 2.5
To the Baltics 1.0
(in total 30.8% of respondents expressed the desire to emigrate)


In general, are people in Belarus fully free, partially free, not
very free or fully not free?

Fully free 27.5%
Partially free 32.2
Not fully free 21.5
Fully not free 16.2


In the past three years have government authorities offended you?

No 60.4%
Many times 8.9
A few times 18.7
Once 8.9
(36.5% of respondents reported being offended at least once by a
government official)


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Belarusians Identify More with the USSR than the EU
-------------- --------------


9. Manaev said he was surprised at the results of the question
regarding whether people view themselves as more Soviet or
European, although he admitted that he could not define what it

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meant to be Soviet. Over 2003 and 2004, the EU was gaining in
popularity compared to union with Russia, and in some polls proved
more popular. The results in this poll compare to those from
February, but show the EU has dropped in popularity, likely as a
result of the regime's constant propaganda against the EU and the
West.

Do you consider yourself more of a Soviet or a European?

Soviet 52.0%
European 36.0


If there were to be a referendum on accepting the Constitution on
the Belarusian and Russian Union, how would you vote?

For Constitution 48.2%
Against Constitution 28.3
Would Not Vote 10.4


If there was a referendum tomorrow on Belarus' accession to the EU,
how would you vote?

For EU Accession 34.2%
Against Accession 44.7
Would Not Vote 10.2


If you had to choose between a union with Russia or entry to the
EU, which would you choose?

Union with Russia 56.1%
Entry to EU 31.9


If a presidential post was created for Belarus and Russia, who
would you vote for that position?

Lukashenko 44.4%
Putin 22.0
Milinkevich 1.5
Zhirinovski 1.3
Another Politician 2.3


--------------
International Relations Following Elections
--------------

In your opinion, how is Lukashenko's reelection influencing
Belarus' relationship with the West?

Improving relationship with the West 16.4%
Worsening relationship with the West 45.7
Relationship not affected 29.8

In your opinion, how is Lukashenko's reelection influencing
Belarus' relationship with Russia?

Improving relationship with Russia 45.2%
Worsening relationship with Russia 13.5
Relationship not affected 37.3


--------------
Information Access
--------------


10. Most Belarusians continue to receive their news from state
television and newspapers, but alternatives are growing in
importance. A sizeable number watch EuroNews, have a DVD player or
VCR (Milinkevich's team passed out DVDs and CD-ROM campaign movies
before the election),and more say they use the inernet with every
poll. However, attempts to reach Belarusians with radio from
abroad has so far had only marginal success, with no foreign
station attracting for than 4% of listeners (in a poll with a 3%
margin of error).

What TV channels do you watch?

Channels Watch Do Not Watch No Answer
-------------- -------------- -------------- --------------

Belarusian TV (BT, ONT, CTV) 88.9% 9.8% 1.3%
Russian TV (ORT, RTR, NTV) 79.3 18.9 1.8
Local TV 39.7 55.5 4.8

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Cable TV 33.3 61.5 5.2
EuroNews (Russian Version) 19.5 75.3 5.2
Satellite TV 14.9 79.2 5.9
Polish TV 10.1 83.6 6.3
Weekly RTVI broadcasts 5.7 87.4 6.9


Not long ago the EU began radio broadcasts to Belarus (in Russian
and Belarusian). Do you listen to these broadcasts?

Radio Stations Listen Do Not Listen No Answer
-------------- -------------- -------------- --------------

European Radio for Belarus
(Warsaw) 3.7% 94.7% 1.6%
Belarusian Chronicles Radio,
German Wave (Bonn) 2.4 96.4 1.2
Belarusian Radio Polonia
(Warsaw) 3.1 95.3 1.6
Radio Ratsi (Belyastok) 1.9 96.5 1.6
Radio Baltiski Khvaliya
(Vilnius) 1.0 97.1 1.9


What periodical publication do you read more than the rest? (More
than one answer)

Sovetskaya Belarus 20.5%
Local paper 22.6
Komsomolskaya Pravda 16.4
Argument and Fact 7.0
Respublika 5.1
Narodnaya Volya 3.0
Antenna 1.8


Do you have a VCR or DVD player to watch films?

DVD player 10.6%
VCR 30.1
Both 16.5
Neither 41.8


Do you use the internet?

Yes, everyday 4.7%
Yes, several times per week 8.8
Yes, several times per month 7.7
Yes, several times per year 3.8
No 70.1
Do not know what is internet 3.9


What language do you use in everyday life?

Belarusian 3.5%
Russian 61.0
Both 12.9
Mixed usage 21.5


KROL