MARINICH RELEASED

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000408

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL
SUBJECT: MARINICH RELEASED

REF: A. 04 MINSK 754


B. 04 MINSK 965

C. 04 MINSK 1303

Classified By: AMBASSADOR GEORGE KROL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Imprisoned opposition member Mikhail
Marinich was released from jail April 14 after serving two
years on trumped up charges. A Minsk court April 12 ruled to
release Marinich a full year earlier than his sentence
required. The 66-year-old Marinich, Belarus' former
Ambassador to Latvia and former Minister of External Trade,
was sentenced in 2004 to five years in prison for alleged
misappropriation of Embassy computer equipment provided to
his NGO. The courts later reduced his sentence to 2.5 years.
Marinich suffered a stroke in prison and his health has
deteriorated. His son reported to Post on April 14 that
Marinich is feeling well and in very good spirits. Many
expected Marinich to be released after the elections, viewing
his incarceration as an effort by Lukashenko to remove a once
serious rival. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Marinich, a former Ambassador to Latvia and former
Minister of External Trade, was arrested in late April 2004
on patently false charges he had stolen USG-donated computer
equipment from his NGO (reftels). In December 2004 he was
sentenced to five years in prison. This sentence was reduced
in February 2005 to 3.5 years and in August 2005 to 2.5
years. Since his imprisonment, Marinich suffered a
mini-stroke and his health has deteriorated. The Minsk
Central District Court in an April 12 hearing granted
Marinich an early release. He was released early in the
morning April 14, and his sons took him home. His son Igor
told Post Marinich is feeling fine and is in reasonably good
health, and that his spirits are high.

A Purpose Behind Marinich's Release?
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3. (C) Poloff met with Igor Marinich on April 12. Igor
claimed a close contact within the GOB told him in March that
Marinich would serve his full term. Only a week ago the same
contact forewarned Marinich's family that he could be
released early. Igor attributes this development to
Lukashenko's poor health and subsequent slipping grip on
power. According to Igor, his father was part of the
nomenklatura, who are NOW seeking someone who could possibly
shield it from blame when the regime falls. The nomenklatura
sees Marinich, not opposition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich or
Aleksandr Kozulin, as someone who could defend them when the
time comes. Igor said this was a sign Lukashenko's support
within the GOB is crumbling. (Note: Marinich's future plans
will obviously depend on his health and his desire to again
challenge the regime. Igor stated that the family hopes to
bring Mikhail to Latvia, where Marinich was Ambassador and
where the family still has strong business ties, for proper
medical treatment.)

Comment
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4. (C) While Igor's theory on his father's release is
possible, many saw Marinich as a possible presidential
challenger to Lukashenko, one who would be acceptable to
Russia. With elections over, and Marinich recovering from
his stroke, the regime may simply have decided he is no
longer a threat. Regardless of this release, the number of
political prisoners incarcerated in Belarus continues to
grow. Post will continue to lobby for their release as well.
Krol