LUKASHENKO INAUGURATED: A PALE IMAGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MINSK 000397

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO INAUGURATED: A PALE IMAGE


Classified By: AMBASSADOR GEORGE KROL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko was
inaugurated in a brief, highly orchestrated and sparsely
attended ceremony in Minsk April 8. In an unusually short
speech, a depressed looking Lukashenko stressed his
re-election represented the people,s will and lashed out at
outside forces for attempting to export the &virus of
revolutions8 into &this island of stability.8 No heads of
state attended the ceremony, which was held under
extraordinarily tight security with only a few hundred bored
onlookers bussed in to witness the sober event. After
receiving the oath of the Belarusian military in an outdoor
parade on Minsk,s October Square, site of anti-Lukashenko
demonstration only two weeks earlier, Lukashenko, dressed in
his &Commander-in-Chief8 uniform, got into to his motorcade
and sped off, disappearing once again from public view. End
Summary.

Inauguration Begins
--------------


2. (U) On Saturday April 8 Aleksandr Lukashenko was sworn in
as president for his third term. Live television showed
Lukashenko,s motorcade driving from his Drozdhy residence
along the Boulevard of the Victors devoid of crowds but lined
by hundreds of leather coated security agents facing the
buildings along the route as if to guard against any attack
or demonstration. The city center had been closed to all
vehicular and pedestrian traffic several hours prior to the
start of the 3 PM ceremony. The motorcade stopped at October
Square in front of the Palace of the Republic. Lukashenko,s
Mercedes limousine rolled up to the very spot on the square
where two weeks before demonstrators had brazenly set up
their tents. Dressed in a dark suit but looking like he was
wearing a bullet-proof vest underneath, Lukashenko alighted
from the vehicle. Accompanied only by the sound of trumpets,
he walked along a 200-meter long red carpet lined by soldiers
leading across the square past a crowd of spectators sitting
in special stands to the Palace itself and into Palace of the
Republic where 3,000 invited guests including the entire
Belarusian government stood to greet him with applause.


3. (U) A serious looking Lukashenko stepped up onto the stage
decorated with Belarusian flags, the Presidential standard
and a white podium and large white desk placed in the middle
of the stage. Standing nervously in a row off to the side
were the heads of the two chambers of Parliament, the head of
the Constitutional Court and the Orthodox Metropolitan
Filaret. Central Election Committee chairwoman Lidiya
Yermoshina was also on stage and acted as MC. In a quavering
voice, Yermoshina opened the ceremony and asked Lukashenko to
take his oath of office. Lukashenko went up to the lectern
and placed his right hand on a leather-bound copy of
Belarus, constitution. As required by the Constitution, he
recited the oath in poorly accented Belarusian, one of the
very rare instances when Lukashenko has spoken the language.
Yermoshina then walked up to Lukashenko and handed him his
&presidential identity card,8 getting a kiss on the cheek
for her effort. She then directed him to the desk in the
center of the stage for him to sign his attestation document.
As Lukashenko got up to stand by the lectern again, Head of
the Upper House of Parliament Gennady Navitsky, the Chairman
of the Constitutional Court Georgi Vasilevich, and Metropolit
Filaret gave short remarks praising Lukashenko and wishing
him &good health and fortune.8 Filaret recited a verse
from the Psalms referring to responsibility coming from the
Almighty.


An Unusually Short Speech
--------------


4. (C) Following these accolades, Lukashenko addressed the
assembled who sat beneath a large Russian language banner
that read &For a strong and prosperous Belarus8 )
Lukashenko,s campaign theme. In an unusually (for
Lukashenko) short speech, and in an equally unusual
unemotional voice, Lukashenko stressed his re-election
reflected the clear will of the people &despite the
malicious and crude foreign and domestic pressure.8
&Belarusians once again proved that they would not be
manipulated.8 The President thanked Belarusian voters who
believe in his &strategic8 plan for Belarus and thanked
Russia, the CIS, and China for their support. Lukashenko
said he was responsible for the fate of the country.

On The Horrible Revolution Virus
--------------


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5. (C) Lukashenko vowed to lead with the citizens, interest
in mind and pronounced the new slogan for his presidency is
&government for the people.8 Lukashenko noted Belarus had
accomplished a lot in the last 10 years without revolution
and without theft of the nation,s wealth. He cited
revolutions in other CIS countries as evidence that calm and
order were important for a country,s development.
Lukashenko accused other nations of trying to humiliate
Belarus, the &island of stability,8 and make it the next
victim in the series of color revolutions. He claimed these
countries, especially Belarus, new EU members, under the
guise of &so-called8 democratic intentions, unsuccessfully
tried to export to Belarus &foreign technologies of
destruction,8 &total chaos,8 &humiliation,8 and
&spiritual degradation.8 Lukashenko claimed these efforts
were not the will of the peoples of these neighboring
countries who know and respect Belarus. Rather these were the
efforts of the leaderships of these countries to draw
attention away from their own failures to provide for their
peoples. He called on these &politicians8 to concentrate on
resolving the problems &in their own houses8 and warned
that Belarus enjoyed a strong immunity from &revolutionary
virus.8

A Government For the People
--------------


6. (C) The President told the audience that the new five-year
plan, accepted at the March 2-3 All Belarusian People,s
National Assembly, encapsulated his goals for his third term.
The plan would result in a better economy and a higher
quality life. Lukashenko dubbed the plan &A Government For
The People8 and claimed it would efficiently reduce red tape
and bureaucracy and be based on the principle that the
government should solve people,s problems. According to
Lukashenko, the plan would significantly increase wages,
pensions, student stipends, and welfare, improve medical
services, and make village life more comfortable.


7. (C) Lukashenko said Belarus opposed aggression in any form
and wanted friends, not enemies, in the international arena.
Belarus was &holding its hand out8 to all countries for
&equal and mutual8 cooperation.

On the Opposition
--------------


8. (C) Lukashenko repeated that the majority of Belarusians
made their choice and no country could ignore their decision.
He noted the opposition,s revolutionary activities failed
because the Belarusian people did not respect their efforts
to degrade Belarus in the eyes of the outside world.

The Heart of Europe and A New History
--------------


9. (C) Lukashenko predicted Belarus, the &geographic heart8
of Europe, would soon have a highly developed economy and
culture that would be attractive to business. He said his
reelection and five-year plan was a new page in Belarus,
heroic history and maintained that Belarus would become a
strong and developed nation.

I Will Not Disgrace You
--------------


10. (C) Lukashenko pledged to be a servant of the people and
promised to be an honest, fair, and sincere leader who would
not betray the people,s trust. Lukashenko, assurance &I
will never disgrace you8 drew the only applause from the
crowd during his ten minute speech. He added he would never
ignore the nation,s interest to appease foreign powers
&from across the Atlantic,8 as other political leaders had
done. He noted he did not know if he should be happy with the
honor he had been bestowed as it has been a heavy burden, but
he concluded that he would carry the cross in the service of
the people.

The Military Parade
--------------


11. (C) Lukashenko left the stage to a standing ovation as he
strode alone down the aisle and out of the auditorium. State
TV carrying the event live then cut to a twenty minute tape
extolling the progress Belarus has made over the last twelve
years. The live broadcast resumed to show Lukashenko, NOW
dressed in his full &Commander-in-Chief8 military uniform
(also it seemed with a bullet-proof vest beneath) stride out
of the Palace of the Republic to the sound of trumpets into
October Square where he walked up to a reviewing platform

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facing uniformed contingents of the Belarusian Army, Border
guards, KGB, Internal Ministry and Emergency Situation
troops. Uniformed heads of the respective Ministries and
Committees including Minister of the Interior Vladimir
Naumov, Defense Minister Leonid Maltsev, and BKGB Chief
Stepan Sukharenko stood in a line not far from Lukashenko as
did the civilian ministers led by Prime Minister Sergey
Sidorsky. Lukashenko launched into a short speech in which he
repeated the themes of his earlier inaugural address,
although he emphasized that Belarus would be prepared to
repel any attack from outside forces seeking to pressure or
subdue the Belarusian people. After he ended his remarks with
a rather weak &Hurrah,8 the assembled troops under command
of MOD Maltsev yelled out their oath of allegiance to the
president and after three rousing &hurrahs8 goose stepped
past their saluting &Commander-in-Chief.8 With the sound
of boots crashing down on the pavement and dressed in his
military uniform with large Soviet style saucer hat, the
mustachioed Lukashenko looked very much like the Fuhrer of
another time who also took a salute of his troops not far
from the site of the day,s parade. Following the parade,
Lukashenko shook hands with his government that had, per the
Constitution, just tendered its resignations and then walked
to his waiting motorcade that sped away once again through
empty streets, presumably back to his Drozhdy retreat. Unlike
earlier times, he did not reappear later to participate in
the large concert held on October Square in his honor.

A Pale Image
--------------


12. (C) Lukashenko did not look like his old self at this
event. He walked awkwardly and when standing on the stage
looked like a stiff wind could easily blow him over. The
caked-on makeup could not cover the large bags underneath his
sunken eyes and the cameras showed his right hand clenched
into a fist and his left hand slightly twitching (newspaper
photos the day after airbrushed out all these defects.) His
eyes frequently wondered about the room. He seemed to
breathe irregularly and each breath caused his whole body to
move. There were little intonations in his speech and he did
not display any of his usual charisma.

Bored Crowd
--------------


13. (C) The audience at the ceremony both inside the Palace
of the Republic and outside on October Square was largely
comprised of GOB officials and selected people who were
required to be there. Groups of pensioners and students were
bussed in and given flags to wave. Few seemed overjoyed to
spend a rare sunny Saturday afternoon as part of this
spectacle. The EU and U.S. ambassadors (mercifully) did not
receive invitations and the heads of missions of Serbia,
Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Japan and Israel, who did,
regretted. Only CIS, China and Muslim country ambassadors
(Iran, Palestine, Libya) attended. No foreign heads of state
were invited. Russian luminaries of the &union state8 sat
prominently in the front row. During Lukashenko,s speeches,
the audiences showed little emotion and gave unenthusiastic
applause. A local Embassy employee told Poloffs many people
he knew were forced to attend the inauguration, including his
child,s school principal.

Comment
--------------


14. (C) Lukashenko,s inauguration reflected very much the
state of tension and uncertainty surrounding Europe,s last
dictator these days. The empty streets, heavy security
presence and Lukashenko,s relatively brief, orchestrated
appearance did not impart a festive, celebratory atmosphere
or the image of a healthy, exultant victor. Where were the 83
percent of the voters who cast their ballots for Lukashenko?
Certainly not celebrating their hero in the streets of Minsk.
Even state media gave rather short shrift to the event and
did not dwell on Lukashenko himself. In fact the cameras
showed more the audience than the leader. Lukashenko looked
alone, isolated, shaken, lacking energy, defensive and
uncertain, adding to the sense his dominance is waning. Even
the picked audience looked nervous and uncertain wondering
perhaps how long the man before them would last. One camera
shot of the crowd observing the military parade seemed to say
it all: it showed two young girls utterly bored leaning on
each other half asleep while an old pensioner mechanically
waved her red and green &Lukashenko8 flag. One wonders if
the state media was deliberately making a statement of its
own. The Lukashenko of April 8 seemed a pale image of
himself. People are watching and waiting, and for those in
the regime, worrying.

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Krol