Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK36
2006-01-17 13:49:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:
Minsk Election Weekly IV (January 6-January 16)
how-toVZCZCXYZ0000 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHSK #0036/01 0171349 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 171349Z JAN 06 FM AMEMBASSY MINSK TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3612 INFO RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS 3501 RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 3159 RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KIEV 3080 RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 3279 RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA 1520 RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0828 RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS MINSK 000036
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly IV (January 6-January 16)
UNCLAS MINSK 000036
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly IV (January 6-January 16)
1. This is the fourth in a weekly series of election-oriented
reports, providing brief items of interest related to the March
19, 2006 presidential elections.
--------------
Signature Collection
--------------
2. Lukashenko Leads in Signature Collections; Other Meets
Minimum Requirement
The following are the latest numbers of collected signatures as
reported by independent news source Belapan. [Note: Each
candidate needs 100,000 signatures to run in the presidential
election.]
Candidate Number of Signatures Date Reported
A. Lukashenko 993,000 January 11
A. Milinkevich 140,000 January 16
S. Gaidukevich 124,000 January 16
A. Kozulin 100,000 January 12
V. Frolov 60,000 January 16
Z. Poznyak 40,000 January 11
S. Skrebets 35,000 January 12
Despite already meeting the 100,000 signature requirement, both
Kozulin and Milinkevich's campaign teams vow not to stop
collecting signatures until they have several hundred thousand
signatures.
3. To Make the Grade, Sign for Luka!
On January 6, human rights NGO "Charter 97" received letters
from students at Belarusian State University describing
instances where university officials strongly encouraged
students to sign nomination forms in support of Lukashenko
before they were allowed to take their exams. Students were
not required to present their passports as proof of citizenship
because the dean's office has all students' personal data. On
January 9, human rights NGO "Vyasna" reported similar
occurrences at the private Belarusian Institute for Legal
Science. University officials interrupted an exam to announce
that if the students want to receive good marks, they must sign
nomination forms in support of Lukashenko. Post has separately
heard this from several students as well.
4. Signature Collectors Barred from Passageways, Dormitories
On January 5, signature collectors from presidential hopeful
Zenon Poznyak claimed that they were chased out of underground
passageways by police and barred from entering student
dormitories. The signature collectors claimed the police cited
a law banning collection of signatures in underground
passageways, but never produced a copy of the law. According
to a statement by Central Election Commission secretary Nikolai
Lozovik, collectors may gather signatures anywhere unless it
obstructs the work of businesses or organizations. Lozovik
promised to handle any complaints received from collectors
within twenty-four hours, but encouraged signature collectors
to obtain permits from the authorities for signature gathering
in order to avoid problems in the future.
--------------
The Campaigns
--------------
5. Voitovich Drops Out of the Presidential Race
On January 9, independent presidential hopeful Alexander
Voitovich withdrew from the presidential election race.
Voitovich accused Lukashenko of deceiving the people and
stated, "the entire election campaign is being conducted to
give the impression of the legality of the third term for
President Lukashenko....I don't want to enable the creation of
[that] illusion for the electorate." Voitovich also described
unfair campaign practices committed by Lukashenko including
closing independent media sources and denying opposition
candidates access to state-run media.
6. Opposition Leaders Encourage Use of "Popular Vote" Tactic
to Reveal Election Fraud
On Janaury 11, former presidential candidate Aleksandr
Voitovich endorsed presidential hopeful Zenon Poznyak's idea of
using a "popular vote" to reveal vote rigging. The plan
encourages opposition voters to submit a fake ballot on
election day with their chosen candidate's name written on it
and to take the original ballot with them. The opposition
voters should then fill out the original ballots and submit
them to an independent agency who will then accurately reveal
the number of votes for the opposition members. [Note: Removing
the original ballot on election day means that actual votes for
the opposition will not be included in the GOB's elections
results, which will further skew the voting results further
towards a Lukashenko victory. Likewise, only pro-opposition
voters would participate, making it useless as a means of
verifying the official vote.]
7. Election Officials Warn Poznyak's Nomination Group
On January 12, the Central Election Commission (CEC) issued an
official warning to Poznyak's nomination group for violating
"early campaigning" laws. The CEC cited the distribution of
campaign leaflets by signature collectors as the basis for the
warning. Poznyak protested the warning, claiming that the
leaflets detailed Poznyak's proposal against vote rigging and
not campaign information about the candidate.
8. MoD Explains Electoral Process to Servicemen
On January 6, Minister of Defense Leonid Maltsev ordered the
creation of a working group to support the electoral process
and to increase awareness about the presidential campaign among
members of the Armed Forces. The group will ensure the
integrity of servicemen's voting practices as well as explain
voting rights and the electoral code to members of the armed
services and their family members.
9. Skrebets' Nomination Group Denied Access to Candidate
On January 5, the Supreme Court denied Sergey Galagonyuk, the
head of Sergey Skrebets' campaign team, access to meet the
imprisoned opposition leader in person or talk to him over the
phone. [Note: Skrebets has been in jail since May for charges
of bribery, fraud and "illegal business activities."]
According to Belarusian law, only relatives and lawyers may
talk with people held in custody. Galagonyuk plans to appeal
to Lukashenko for help.
--------------
Harassment
--------------
10. Police Seize 10,000 Milinkevich Calendars
On January 6, police seized 10,800 small calendars with 10+
Coalition candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich's picture on them from
Belarusian Communist Party activist Valery Rybchenko in the Gomel
region. Police stopped Rybchenko's car and took the calendars,
claiming that the calendars did not have the proper publication
data printed on them. Rybchenko claimed that the search was
illegal. Two weeks earlier, police from the same area seized
57,000 holiday cards signed by Milinkevich.
11. Milinkevich's Team Faces Threats and Searches
On January 6, police searched Milinkevich nomination team member
Vladimir Hundar's apartment in Baranovichy and confiscated computer
equipment they claim is connected to a criminal case from 2000
involving Hundar. On January 12, Milinkevich's campaign manager
Sergei Kalyakin estimated that approximately 60 percent of the
group's members have already been questioned by authorities or
threatened with dismissal or expulsion from their educational
institutions if they continue to collect signatures. Kalyakin
reported that already 40 people have resigned their membership.
Conversely on the same day, pro-Lukashenko presidential hopeful
Sergey Gaidukevich announced that his signature collection process
was proceeding smoothly and without serious interference or
violations by the authorities.
12. Kozulin's Campaign Team Reports Numerous Problems
On January 11, Kozulin's nomination group filed another
complaint with the Central Election Commission. The complaint
alleges that the deputy head of the Slutsk city government
pressured a collector to quit when the collector submitted
signatures for verification. The complaint also described
instances where employees at government run kindergartens were
threatened with dismissal if they did not sign a nomination
form in support of Lukashenko. Kozulin's group claims that
they have been denied access to student dormitories.
Separately on January 12, the Brobruisk chapter of Kozulin's
Social Democratic Party "Hramada" (BSDP) lost its office after
state authorities cancelled the lease due to dangerous floor
conditions. The leasing authorities refused to rent BSDP
another room in the building.
--------------
Quote of the Week
--------------
13. The following is a brief exchange on January 11 between
deputy head of the presidential administration, Natalia
Petkevich, and a journalist after Petkevich explained the
reasons behind the resignation of Victor Sheiman:
Petkevich: "After the elections, Victor Sheiman will return to
government work and resume an active role as the secretary of
the Security Council."
Voice from the audience: "Are you sure that he [Sheiman] will
want to work for Aleksandr Milinkevich?"
KROL
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly IV (January 6-January 16)
1. This is the fourth in a weekly series of election-oriented
reports, providing brief items of interest related to the March
19, 2006 presidential elections.
--------------
Signature Collection
--------------
2. Lukashenko Leads in Signature Collections; Other Meets
Minimum Requirement
The following are the latest numbers of collected signatures as
reported by independent news source Belapan. [Note: Each
candidate needs 100,000 signatures to run in the presidential
election.]
Candidate Number of Signatures Date Reported
A. Lukashenko 993,000 January 11
A. Milinkevich 140,000 January 16
S. Gaidukevich 124,000 January 16
A. Kozulin 100,000 January 12
V. Frolov 60,000 January 16
Z. Poznyak 40,000 January 11
S. Skrebets 35,000 January 12
Despite already meeting the 100,000 signature requirement, both
Kozulin and Milinkevich's campaign teams vow not to stop
collecting signatures until they have several hundred thousand
signatures.
3. To Make the Grade, Sign for Luka!
On January 6, human rights NGO "Charter 97" received letters
from students at Belarusian State University describing
instances where university officials strongly encouraged
students to sign nomination forms in support of Lukashenko
before they were allowed to take their exams. Students were
not required to present their passports as proof of citizenship
because the dean's office has all students' personal data. On
January 9, human rights NGO "Vyasna" reported similar
occurrences at the private Belarusian Institute for Legal
Science. University officials interrupted an exam to announce
that if the students want to receive good marks, they must sign
nomination forms in support of Lukashenko. Post has separately
heard this from several students as well.
4. Signature Collectors Barred from Passageways, Dormitories
On January 5, signature collectors from presidential hopeful
Zenon Poznyak claimed that they were chased out of underground
passageways by police and barred from entering student
dormitories. The signature collectors claimed the police cited
a law banning collection of signatures in underground
passageways, but never produced a copy of the law. According
to a statement by Central Election Commission secretary Nikolai
Lozovik, collectors may gather signatures anywhere unless it
obstructs the work of businesses or organizations. Lozovik
promised to handle any complaints received from collectors
within twenty-four hours, but encouraged signature collectors
to obtain permits from the authorities for signature gathering
in order to avoid problems in the future.
--------------
The Campaigns
--------------
5. Voitovich Drops Out of the Presidential Race
On January 9, independent presidential hopeful Alexander
Voitovich withdrew from the presidential election race.
Voitovich accused Lukashenko of deceiving the people and
stated, "the entire election campaign is being conducted to
give the impression of the legality of the third term for
President Lukashenko....I don't want to enable the creation of
[that] illusion for the electorate." Voitovich also described
unfair campaign practices committed by Lukashenko including
closing independent media sources and denying opposition
candidates access to state-run media.
6. Opposition Leaders Encourage Use of "Popular Vote" Tactic
to Reveal Election Fraud
On Janaury 11, former presidential candidate Aleksandr
Voitovich endorsed presidential hopeful Zenon Poznyak's idea of
using a "popular vote" to reveal vote rigging. The plan
encourages opposition voters to submit a fake ballot on
election day with their chosen candidate's name written on it
and to take the original ballot with them. The opposition
voters should then fill out the original ballots and submit
them to an independent agency who will then accurately reveal
the number of votes for the opposition members. [Note: Removing
the original ballot on election day means that actual votes for
the opposition will not be included in the GOB's elections
results, which will further skew the voting results further
towards a Lukashenko victory. Likewise, only pro-opposition
voters would participate, making it useless as a means of
verifying the official vote.]
7. Election Officials Warn Poznyak's Nomination Group
On January 12, the Central Election Commission (CEC) issued an
official warning to Poznyak's nomination group for violating
"early campaigning" laws. The CEC cited the distribution of
campaign leaflets by signature collectors as the basis for the
warning. Poznyak protested the warning, claiming that the
leaflets detailed Poznyak's proposal against vote rigging and
not campaign information about the candidate.
8. MoD Explains Electoral Process to Servicemen
On January 6, Minister of Defense Leonid Maltsev ordered the
creation of a working group to support the electoral process
and to increase awareness about the presidential campaign among
members of the Armed Forces. The group will ensure the
integrity of servicemen's voting practices as well as explain
voting rights and the electoral code to members of the armed
services and their family members.
9. Skrebets' Nomination Group Denied Access to Candidate
On January 5, the Supreme Court denied Sergey Galagonyuk, the
head of Sergey Skrebets' campaign team, access to meet the
imprisoned opposition leader in person or talk to him over the
phone. [Note: Skrebets has been in jail since May for charges
of bribery, fraud and "illegal business activities."]
According to Belarusian law, only relatives and lawyers may
talk with people held in custody. Galagonyuk plans to appeal
to Lukashenko for help.
--------------
Harassment
--------------
10. Police Seize 10,000 Milinkevich Calendars
On January 6, police seized 10,800 small calendars with 10+
Coalition candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich's picture on them from
Belarusian Communist Party activist Valery Rybchenko in the Gomel
region. Police stopped Rybchenko's car and took the calendars,
claiming that the calendars did not have the proper publication
data printed on them. Rybchenko claimed that the search was
illegal. Two weeks earlier, police from the same area seized
57,000 holiday cards signed by Milinkevich.
11. Milinkevich's Team Faces Threats and Searches
On January 6, police searched Milinkevich nomination team member
Vladimir Hundar's apartment in Baranovichy and confiscated computer
equipment they claim is connected to a criminal case from 2000
involving Hundar. On January 12, Milinkevich's campaign manager
Sergei Kalyakin estimated that approximately 60 percent of the
group's members have already been questioned by authorities or
threatened with dismissal or expulsion from their educational
institutions if they continue to collect signatures. Kalyakin
reported that already 40 people have resigned their membership.
Conversely on the same day, pro-Lukashenko presidential hopeful
Sergey Gaidukevich announced that his signature collection process
was proceeding smoothly and without serious interference or
violations by the authorities.
12. Kozulin's Campaign Team Reports Numerous Problems
On January 11, Kozulin's nomination group filed another
complaint with the Central Election Commission. The complaint
alleges that the deputy head of the Slutsk city government
pressured a collector to quit when the collector submitted
signatures for verification. The complaint also described
instances where employees at government run kindergartens were
threatened with dismissal if they did not sign a nomination
form in support of Lukashenko. Kozulin's group claims that
they have been denied access to student dormitories.
Separately on January 12, the Brobruisk chapter of Kozulin's
Social Democratic Party "Hramada" (BSDP) lost its office after
state authorities cancelled the lease due to dangerous floor
conditions. The leasing authorities refused to rent BSDP
another room in the building.
--------------
Quote of the Week
--------------
13. The following is a brief exchange on January 11 between
deputy head of the presidential administration, Natalia
Petkevich, and a journalist after Petkevich explained the
reasons behind the resignation of Victor Sheiman:
Petkevich: "After the elections, Victor Sheiman will return to
government work and resume an active role as the secretary of
the Security Council."
Voice from the audience: "Are you sure that he [Sheiman] will
want to work for Aleksandr Milinkevich?"
KROL