Where's Lukashenko?

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000348

SIPDIS

KIEV ALSO FOR USAID

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BO
SUBJECT: Where's Lukashenko?

Ref: Minsk 314


1. Summary: On March 28 the GOB indicated Lukashenko's inauguration
would not take place March 31 as had been widely reported and
prepared for. This followed an eight-day period where Lukashenko
disappeared from public view. Only on March 28 did a wan and de-
energized Lukashenko reappear for a very brief story on state news.
The Presidential Administration told one news service Lukashenko
was not seen publicly because he was "working with documents,"
which was the official excuse whenever Russia's Boris Yeltsin was
incapacitated. This "disappearance" coincides with Lukashenko
facing unprecedented criticism at home and abroad for blatantly
undemocratic elections. It remains to be seen if and when
Lukashenko fully returns to the scene, but his behavior is odd to
most observers who feel he is suffering from stress, or simply
avoiding further international opprobium. End summary.


Inauguration Postponed, Lukashenko Missing for 8 Days
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2. On March 28 the Central Election Commission announced that
Lukashenko's inauguration, scheduled for March 31, would be
postponed to sometime in the first half of April. CEC deputy
Nikolay Lozovik told the press he did not know when the
inauguration would now be held, but that the Presidential
Administration would announce the date later. Lukashenko's last
public appearance was on March 20, when he spoke for several hours
on live TV on the previous day's elections (reftel). Russian and
independent Belarusian press commented that President Aleksandr
Lukashenko was not seen in public for the next eight days. He only
reappeared for a very brief television appearance on March 28,
where he looked ill and was not his usual demagogic self.


3. When subsequently asked by journalists why the inauguration was
being postponed, Lozovik replied that it was not being postponed as
no date had ever really been set. He claimed the March 31 date was
just a proposal. However, the Japanese Embassy in Minsk told
Poloff they received an invitation on March 24 to the March 31
inauguration. The Bulgarian and Turkish Ambassadors informed their
EU counterparts they too had received invitations for March 31, but
told the MFA they would not attend. The U.S. and EU embassies did
not receive invitations.


TV Fixture Lukashenko Off the Air for 8 Days
--------------


4. Mundane coverage of Lukashenko's daily activities normally
dominates the first 30 minutes of the daily state television news.
However, state news did not show Lukashenko at all for eight days.
On March 28, state news at 1500 showed a very brief clip, no more
than 30 seconds long, of a pale and worn Lukashenko addressing a
handful of staff on the need for debureaucratization. Lukashenko
was clearly not as energized as usual, and the meeting was not in
his normal office, making it appear he has been ill. During this
period state media has been busily trying to defend Lukashenko's
election "victory" against all external and domestic challengers,
without Lukashenko's presence or participation. PolAsst noted that
it has been several years since Lukashenko disappeared from public
sight for such a long period.


5. Lukashenko's web site has not updated its chronicle of his daily
activities since March 23. Even the days before that showed scant
activity, with Lukashenko apparently signing three decrees and
having just two meetings in a week. For March 28 the site shows
only that Lukashenko is participating in a "Conference on
Perfecting the Structures of Organs of State Management." The news
that day showed his speaking briefly to six senior staff, casting
doubt on what sort of conference this was. On March 29, as if
responding to speculation in the Russian press, the Presidential
Administration's press office announced that Lukashenko would be
holding a series of "working meetings."


"Working with Documents"
--------------


6. Russian radio station Ekho Moskvy reported on March 28 that it
asked Lukashenko's press spokesman, Pavel Legkiy, about
Lukashenko's absence. Legkiy replied, "In the period which you are
talking about the head of state is working, maybe he simply had few
less public appearances on television, but this is not anything to
worry about. The president is healthy, he is working, these rumors
are completely groundless and to some degree even a little absurd."
Ekho Moskvy further reported that Lukashenko has not issued any
statements in response to the congratulations he received for

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winning the election. Independent Belarusian news service
Belorusskie Novosti reported on March 28 that when it queried the
Presidential Administration on Lukashenko's status, it was told
that, "The President is working with documents the past few days."
Belorusskie Novosti pointed out that whenever Boris Yeltsin was
incapacitated, the official story was that he was "working with
documents."


Comment
--------------


7. Lukashenko's prolonged absence and the postponement of the
presidential inauguration, to a date TBD, has stoked many rumors
about Lukashenko's health. Lukashenko's brief reappearance on
March 28 did not present a man celebrating winning his third
presidential term with 83% of the vote. Instead he clearly looked
sick. During the election period a number of people commented to
us that Lukashenko looked to be under a great deal of stress and
worried. The press has reported that no one knows why Lukashenko
dropped from view, but it is exceedingly strange that he is keeping
such a low profile now, when the opposition managed to hold a four
day protest in Minsk's main square and when much of the
international community is castigating Lukashenko and Belarus for
the recent blatantly undemocratic elections. This absence raises
the possibility that Lukashenko, neither rational nor level headed
at the best of times, is recovering from stress or simply waiting
until interest in Belarus dies down to avoid more criticism or even
demonstrations. Milinkevich publicly called Lukashenko's absence a
clear sign he is "seriously ill." Some sources claim Lukashenko is
scheduled to travel to Moscow either April 1 and 2 to celebrate the
tenth anniversary of the Union State treaty, but the Presidential
Administration press office has refused to confirm any presidential
travel. It remains to be seen if he makes this trip.

KROL