SITREP 4: KOZULIN'S PLAN FOR A SHADOW GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000329 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SUBJECT: SITREP 4: KOZULIN'S PLAN FOR A SHADOW GOVERNMENT REF: A. MINSK 319 ¶B. MINSK 322 ¶C. MINSK 223 Classified By: AMBASSADOR GEORGE KROL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: A key Kozulin campaign member and a spokesperson for the Zubr youth group spoke to Poloff on March 23 to discuss their plans in the wake of fraudulent elections and massive arrests. Kozulin seeks Milinkevich,s cooperation in creating a new shadow government that will unite all political parties and social groups. Demonstrators continued to protest on October Square, despite their dwindling numbers and increased provocations from security forces, and were finally removed by OMON forces on March 24 (septel). Mass arrests and beatings continue, directed mainly at the youth, and many people are still missing. Kozulin,s team plans to create a fund providing legal assistance to those arrested for political activities. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Poloff met with key Kozulin campaign manager Oleg Volchek and Zubr press secretary on March 23 to discuss post election plans. Kozulin Wants to Work With Milinkevich, Create Shadow Government -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Volchek passed Poloff a copy of a request Kozulin sent to Milinkevich on March 23 asking that they work together to create a shadow government. Kozulin claims he and Milinkevich, in reality, received the support of the majority of Belarusians, and the fact that so many gathered on March 19 on the square demonstrated that they were ready for change. They needed to use this support to form the Government of the People,s Trust (GPT),which would attempt to solve the social, economic, and political problems in Belarus. Volchek said the GPT would elect its own ministers, organize movements, and include all the opposition,s social and political elite. According to Volchek, the rift between Kozulin and Milinkevich over the demonstration was trivial and would not impede their work together (Ref A). Volchek called it a &clash of personalities,8 which is not unusual between leaders. (Note: The Milinkevich team believes otherwise. See Ref B for details.) Kozulin Supports Demonstration, But Concerned for Youth,s Welfare -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) According to Volchek, Kozulin asked the demonstrators on October Square to disband not because he did not support their cause, but because BKGB sources informed him that SOBR and ALMAZ units were prepared to violently &cleanse8 the square by March 24, a day before the planned March 25 rally. Volchek said that Kozulin had made an agreement with the authorities and the BKGB that the demonstrators would have a &window of opportunity8 to leave the demonstration without police reprisals. Unfortunately for Kozulin, the demonstrators did not agree. Volchek said that if police decide to use violence against the demonstrators, Kozulin was prepared to stand beside them on the square. (Note: During the razing of the demonstrator,s tent village on March 24, Kozulin was present. More information in septel.) Fewer Demonstrators and More Problems -------------- ¶5. (C) Zubr press secretary Aleksandr Atroshchenkov admitted to Poloff on March 23 that fewer people were participating in the demonstration, but the perseverance of those that remained has not been affected. He said the mood on the square was good, although they know that at any moment the security services could severely beat them. To pass the time the demonstrators play music and busy themselves with assigned duties, such as sanitation, security, and food procurement. Although they recognize Milinkevich as their leader, both Atroshchenkov and Volchek noted that Belarusian Popular Front activist Vechislav Sevchik is the de facto leader of the group. (Note: Sevchik,s mother was arrested on March 23 and Sevchik himself is reportedly in a hospital after suffering a severe beating. Septel.) ¶6. (C) Atroshchenkov said that demonstrators were facing more provocations from the authorities. On the night of March 22, &drunks8 with vodka and champagne would try to give a drink to the demonstrators. However, several of the provocateurs were recognized as state television personalities. In one instance, a &drunk8 was making a nuisance of himself, so MINSK 00000329 002 OF 003 Atroshchenkov had a nearby police officer confront him. After speaking to the police officer, the drunk displayed a pistol hidden under his coat and was immediately let go. Atroshchenkov fears that violence is imminent, as most international journalists, accreditations expire on March 23 and 24. Police Continue to Detain and Beat -------------- ¶7. (C) Volchek claimed that the militia in black uniforms surrounding the demonstrators on October Square were not actually militia, but Commander Dmitry Pavlichenko,s elite SOBR forces. (Note: Embassy RSO later received information that security services were actually OMON units commanded personally be Colonel Yuri Podobed.) He explained how the officers arrest anyone near the square who is carrying food, whether they be an activist or an innocent bystander, and take them to the Okryestan detention center. These officers also continue to beat activists in broad daylight in underground pedestrian crossings and subway platforms. Volchek said at least 20 people who were arrested in the last few days are still missing and neither the police nor courts will give information as to their whereabouts. Those Detained Living in Squalor Prison Conditions -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Volchek and Kozulin went to the infamous detention center Okryestan where hundreds of arrested activists are serving their 10 ) 15 day sentences. They were successful in speaking to a few of the detained, who complained of poor quality food and cold temperatures, but were not allowed into the prisoner areas. Volchek claimed the detainees were living in squalor conditions and prison authorities would not allow Kozulin to bring food or blankets to the detainees. (Note: Civil society activist Alyona Volnyeb recently told Pol/Econ Chief in a separate meeting that in several cases the prison authorities have refused to provide toilet paper to women when using the restroom.) Meanwhile authorities would not release detainee names to the dozens of frantic parents gathering outside the prison. Zubr press secretary Aleksandr Atroshchenkov told Poloff on March 23 that many of those incarcerated have been beaten and he has unconfirmed information that several have went on a hunger strike. Kozulin,s Team Organizing a Free Legal Help Service -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) In the wake of mass protests, Volchek and other members of Kozulin,s team are organizing a fund to provide free legal assistance to help those, especially the youth, who are arrested and/or expelled from school for their political activities. The only problem with the idea, however, is that the fund is empty and they are seeking financial assistance from anyone who can give. Volchek had already spoken to the ODIHR and OSCE about printing leaflets on various legal subjects, such as &How to Protect Yourself From Illegal Police Searches8 and &How to Avoid Coercion and Blackmail.8 Volchek explained that the youth was suffering the most because they did not realize how &sadistic and fascist8 police behavior could be. Kozulin,s Team Sends Complaints to Prosecutor -------------- ¶10. (C) Volchek presented Poloff a copy of all complaints Kozulin,s team filed with the Supreme Court and General Prosecutor,s Office. According to Volchek, the Supreme Court,s official message ironically is that it does not have the power to determine whether Lukashenko,s run for president violated the constitution. The Court continues to dismiss all complaints about illegal arrests and search and seizures of activists. Prosecutor,s Decision On February 17 and March 2 Incidents -------------- -------------- ¶11. (C) The Prosecutor General,s Office decided to extend its investigation by one month into an ALMAZ commander,s actions for shooting at a vehicle and the beating of several journalists on March 2 (Ref B). Volchek doubts the Prosecutor will charge the security service officers for their actions. Instead, he fears that he himself will be charged for hooliganism for being shot in the face with a gas gun by an OMON officer on February 17. Rumors have also circulated that the severely beaten Komsomolskaya Pravda journalist will also be charged for hooliganism and his paper will not receive accreditation once its current one expires. Comment MINSK 00000329 003 OF 003 -------------- ¶12. (C) Throughout the meeting, Volchek repeatedly stressed the need for Kozulin and Milinkevich to work together and not let the opposition fragment like it did following the 2001 presidential elections. He cited a new found momentum that needed to be supported not just by both candidates, but all those active in politics and society. This is to be the purpose of the shadow government. However, with the wave of arrests and the courts, blatant indifference, few are left to make the necessary plans and preparations. Krol