MILINKEVICH CALLS FOR STREET PROTESTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000299 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO SUBJECT: MILINKEVICH CALLS FOR STREET PROTESTS Classified By: Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4(B,D ) ¶1. (U) Summary: Opposition presidential candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich told a press conference on March 20 that the opposition does not recognize Lukashenko as the winner of the obviously falsified elections. Milinkevich is demanding a repeat election, held in a democratic manner without repression. He called for his supporters to peacefully take to the streets of Minsk in order to pressure Lukashenko and his government to give in. End summary. No Recognition to Batka -------------- ¶2. (U) On March 20, the day after presidential elections were held, leading opposition candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich addressed a packed hall of journalists. Milinkevich, and later his deputy Sergey Kalyakin, stressed that the opposition do not recognize the elections as legitimate or valid, and do not recognize Lukashenko as president of Belarus. Milinkevich argued that the 2004 referendum that removed the constitutional limit on presidential terms had not been democratic, that the Law on the President still limits the president to two terms, and that the GOB acted illegally throughout the current election period. Milinkevich claimed that the security services, not the Central Election Commission, actually ran this election, leading to mass repression and falsification. Demands a Repeat, Democratic Election -------------- ¶3. (U) Milinkevich announced that the "united opposition" has several demands from authorities: 1) a second election that follows the law; 2) election commissions that have representatives from independent organizations; 3) no political arrests; 4) no political firings from work; and 5) no repression. To force these demands on the authorities, Milinkevich called for the Belarusian people to peacefully take to the streets that evening "to defend their and their children's futures." He insisted that, "the only way to talk to these authorities is from the street," therefore the opposition needs ten times as many people to publicly demonstrate as came out the evening of March 19. (Note: Post estimates that 10,000 to 12,000 demonstrated on election night (septel).) Kalyakin reiterated this call later in the press conference. ¶4. (SBU) Despite the apparent loss, Milinkevich called March 19 a historic day for Belarus and a victory for the opposition because many Belarusians "threw off their fear" to fight for the future of their country. He stated that the mood in the country has changed in recent months, and that Belarusians now believe that change is possible. Kalyakin claimed that in a Levada exit poll, less than 50% said they voted for Lukashenko. He said the real number was likely lower, as many people probably claimed they voted for Lukashenko out of fear. (Note: Embassy Moscow contacted Levada on this topic. Irina Palilova of Levada's press section admitted that Levada did conduct exit polls of a significant representative sample of voters. However, because 30% of those polled refused to answer, Levada felt it could not officially publish valid results. Levada did share its results with some in Belarus, who apparently leaked them to Milinkevich's team.) ¶5. (U) Responding to journalists' questions, Kalyakin announced that Milinkevich's campaign had submitted hundreds of complaints about electoral violations to the CEC. Milinkevich said he plans to again invite the other opposition presidential candidate, Aleksandr Kozulin, to join "a larger coalition." He added that Kozulin appeared at Milinkevich's March 19 protest, showing that Kozulin supports Milinkevich. About his own security, Milinkevich claimed, "If the authorities want to shoot me, there is nothing I can do. If they jail me, it only hurts the authorities." More Expected on March 20 -------------- ¶6. (C) Milinkevich campaign deputy Aleksandr Bukhvostov told Poloff after the press conference that Belarusians know how they and their friends voted, and so they know the elections were falsified when the CEC claims only 6% voted for Milinkevich. He thought this would make it more likely MINSK 00000299 002 OF 002 people would take to the streets to demonstrate. Bukhvostov estimated that 30 to 32% actually voted for Milinkevich. Bukhvostov speculated that the authorities did not use force against the March 19 demonstrators because the U.S., EU and Russia all warned Lukashenko against doing so. He also thought there were internal politics, involved, as he said he was certain Interior Minister Vladimir Naumov wanted to respond to demonstrations violently. Bukhvostov also maintained that the U.S. and EU could most effectively damage Lukashenko by convincing Russia to drop its economic support for him. Without Russian subsidies, Bukhvostov stated, Lukashenko cannot survive. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Milinkevich's next step is to try and get as large a crowd of supporters into the streets of Minsk on March 20. He exceeded many expectations on March 19 by drawing 10,000 to 12,000 people to October Square in the face of a very heavy security force presence. There were additional unconfirmed reports that another 6,000 tried to come to the square but were blocked by police. However, the event ended somewhat abruptly; after several speeches Milinkevich dispersed the crowd. Milinkevich and his team have not indicated if they have developed a plan for future demonstrations or will let events take their course. Krol