Minsk Election Weekly XIII (March 11-March 17)

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TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly XIII (March 11-March 17)


1. This is the thirteenth in a weekly series of election-
oriented reports, providing brief items of interest related to
the March 19 presidential elections.

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Observers
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2. OSCE PA and ODIHR Launch Short-Term Observer Mission

On March 16, OSCE Parliamentary Assembly President Alcee Hastings,
a U.S. Representative from Florida (D),arrived in Belarus to lead
126 delegates from 35 member states in the OSCE PA short-term
presidential election observation mission. The OSCE Office for
Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) expects to field
440 short-term observers for the presidential elections. OSCE PA
and OSCE/ODIHR plan to release a joint press statement on their
assessment of the election process on March 20.


3. Swedish and Danish Observers Arrested, Thrown Out

On March 15, Belarusian authorities arrested eight members of a
Scandinavian team of unofficial observers and ordered them to
leave Belarus. The two Swedes, members of Sweden's Liberal
Party, were arrested in Grodno after visiting a polling station
and were banned from entering Belarus for five years. The six
Danes, including members of the Social Democratic Youth of
Denmark, were arrested in Minsk, questioned for four hours, and
their computers were confiscated. Other members of the
unaccredited observation team, sent by the Danish NGO Silba,
were detained in Gomel, Grodno, Minsk, and Mogilyov. According
to a Silba spokesperson, 40 Swedes and Danes were denied visas
this week and the rest entered on tourist visas, thinking that
it would be "perfectly legal" to observe the election.


4. Georgian MPs Detained at Airport

Eight MPs of the Georgian Parliament, who are accredited as
observers of the OSCE PA, were detained on March 16 at the
Minsk airport when they arrived on a flight from Vienna. Upon
arrival, security services questioned the MPs about Georgia's
alleged involvement in preparation of terrorist attacks during
the election. The MPs' phones were disconnected and could not
be reached. The Georgian consuls in Moscow and Kiev have left
for Minsk to resolve the situation. Other Georgian MPs are
reportedly in Minsk.


5. Belarus Has Right to Control Access to Foreigners

Spokesman for the MFA Andrei Popov on March 16 announced that
Belarus was using its right under the Vienna convention to
"control access of foreigners to Belarus" to deny two Polish
and one German ODIHR observers entry.


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Repression and Harassment
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6. Anonymous Tip Warns of Violence on Election Day

Independent online news source Belapan on March 14 received an
anonymous e-mail supposedly sent by a police officer warning
that Minsk authorities have called in 7,500 troops and all
special task, rapid response units, police units to prevent
opposition forces from gathering in the streets. The anonymous
tip alleged that the police were issued 1000 Zarya-1 light and
sound grenades, 700 Taifun, Cheryomukha and Siren grenades,
2,500 rubber bullet cartridges, and 200 Taifun-M gas grenades.
The source claimed that troops would be concentrated in
basements of the Palace of the Republic, the Trade Union's
Palace of Culture, the Minsk Regional Executive Committee, and
the Presidential Administration and snipers would be on
rooftops. The source also claimed that special units would
provoke demonstrators, possibly by exploding bombs to cause
panic. The anonymous source said Interior Minister General
Vladimir Naumov is in charge of the operation and General
Prosecutor Petr Miklashevich sanctioned the use of weapons and
physical force. On March 16, BKGB Chief Stepan Sukharenko told
reporters that he knows the identity of the anonymous source
and was prepared to "deal" with him.


7. Students Encouraged to Leave Capitol
According to news reports and Post contacts, university
directors were instructed to cancel classes on March 17 and
March 20, giving the students a four-day weekend during the
election. Students have allegedly been "encouraged" to vote
early and told to return to their homes outside of Minsk for
the weekend. The rector at Belarusian State University
reportedly warned students that they were to blame for whatever
should happen to them should they decide to remain in the
dormitories or in Minsk. He closed by reminding students about
their high stipends, praising the quality of their lives and
education, and reminded them "who these good things come from."


8. BKGB Suggests Possible Milinkevich Arrest After Elections

BKGB Chief Sukharenko told reporters on March 16 that the GOB
would not press any charges against Milinkevich until after the
elections. According to Sukharenko, Milinkevich would like to
be arrested for a minor offense before the election, but
Sukharenko asserted that this would not happen. Sukharenko
later threatened terrorism charges and use of force against
anyone who participates in demonstrations. Terrorism charges
carry prison sentences up to 25 years, and in some cases, the
death penalty. Sukharenko later commented that the BKGB does
not interfere in the election process, but cannot allow a
seizure of power by force. Milinkevich refuted Sukharenko's
claims that the opposition was planning terrorist acts.


9. No Guarantee for Reporters' Safety

Interior Minister Vladimir Naumov on March 16 told reporters
that he could not guarantee the safety of journalists at any
demonstrations should they occur on March 19. He said he could
only guarantee their safety should they remain in a "specially
designated area." However, if journalists were to climb
fences, run around, or provoke officers, then the journalists
would not be safe.


10. Thousands of Campaign Ads Seized

Minsk police on March 16 seized 92,000 leaflets and printed
campaign ads from nine opposition activists, who were
subsequently detained and released. On the same day, police
detained two activists and seized 40,000 leaflets from their
vehicle.


11. Kozulin Activist Severely Beaten

A Grodno police lieutenant on March 14 severely beat Kozulin
activist Nikolai Voron in a factory dormitory as he was passing
out campaign flyers. According to a Kozulin spokesperson, the
officer repeatedly slammed Voron's head against a wall. An
ambulance rushed Voron to a hospital with serious head
injuries.


12. Judge Drops Charges Against Kozulin Activists

A Minsk District Judge on March 13 dropped charges against four
Kozulin activists for lack of evidence. Nikolai Tetyorkin,
Sergey Kostylenko, Ivan Lobachev, and the candidate's brother
Vladimir Kozulin were among 20 people who were apprehended on
March 2 at the October police station after Kozulin was
violently arrested at the Palace of Railroad Workers. All men
were charged with hooliganism. The courts did not release Yury
Radivil, the activist driving the car involved in the March 2
shooting.


13. Workers Forced to Pro-Lukashenko Concert

According to independent online news source Belapan, the
Svetlogorsk District Executive Committee on March 14 issued a
directive to all Svetlogorsk enterprises ordering managers to
force their employees to attend the March 15 concert at which
Belarusian pop stars will support President Lukashenko. The
directive required heads of companies to personally register
the names of employees attending the concert at the Committee's
office. Officials with the Committee declined to comment about
the directive to journalists. According to a local Belarusian
Popular Front (BNF) member, schoolchildren were ordered to buy
state flags and most of the audience will be bused in from
work.


14. Ukrainian Embassy Protests Arrests

The Ukrainian Embassy on March 15 contested the 10-day
sentences given to five Ukrainian activists who were detained
on March 12 following a Milinkevich rally. The Embassy filed
an appeal with the Minsk City Court and phoned the Minister of
Foreign Affairs Sergey Martynov. On March 16, Ukrainian MPs
publicly condemned Belarus' decision to deny entry to a
Ukrainian Channel 5 news crew on March 14 and 15. The MPs said
that Belarus' refusal to allow journalists to cover the
elections and its violent apprehension of Ukrainian journalists
on March 12 proves that Belarus' level of democracy falls
short of OSCE standards.


15. BPF Denies Involvement in Fake Newspapers

Deputy chairman of the BPF Aleksandr Mikhalevich on March 14
denied that his party was responsible for publishing a fake
issue of the state-run newspaper Sovetskaya Belarus. According
to Mikhalevich, the issue was published by a group called
"Khopits" [Enough] and he was only accompanying the 65,000
copies when they were seized by police in Mstislavl. The fake
issue strongly resembled Sovetskaya Belarus with articles
allegedly written by the paper's real staff that glorified
Lukashenko in a "grotesque" manner. Editor-in-chief of
Sovetskaya Belarus Pavel Yakubovich said the incident showed
the morality of the opposition's tricks, but he would not sue
Mikhalevich because it would be "below him."


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Information
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16. Independent TV Transmission Stops

On March 16, the Belarusian-British joint venture cable
television company Kosmos TV stopped transmitting Russia's RTVi
channel to 57,000 Belarusian subscribers citing technical
problems. RTVi, a private Russian-language TV network, on
March 5 launched a 30-minute show called Window to Europe as
part of the EU's EUR 2 million program to increase independent
information access in Belarus. Window to Europe had planned to
broadcast reporting on the Belarusian presidential elections in
the days leading up to the vote. Mikhail Borschevsky, director
of RTVi, told RFE/RL that this move was politically motivated,
"Belarus' largest cable operator phoned us yesterday to say
that they received an order from a high authority to cut off
transmission during the election."


17. 200,000 Newspapers Seized

On March 17, police seized nearly the entire print run of
200,000 opposition Tovarisch newspapers. This special edition
had been printed in Moscow and included Milinkevich's campaign
program. Milinkevich's press spokesman announced that just
6,000 to 7,000 copies had been distributed before police seized
the rest as they were being unloaded from a truck.


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The Central Election Committee
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18. Nine Percent of Voters Already Cast Ballot

Central Election Committee (CEC) Secretary Nikolai Lozovik on
March 15, the first day of early voting, announced that three
percent of eligible voters had already cast their ballots. By
the end of the third day of voting, Lozovik announced that nine
percent of the electorate had voted.


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The Candidates
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19. Lukashenko Calls Opposition Neo-Fascists

During a March 10 visit to the Belaruskaly potash fertilizer
mine, Lukashenko called Milinkevich a representative of "ultra-
nationalist," pro-Nazi nationalist forces and accused Kozulin
of having criminal links. Spokesman for Milinkevich Sergey
Voznyak dismissed the remark and quoted Lukashenko from a past
interview with a German newspaper in which the President
praised Hitler for his practices during the 1930s.

20. Lukashenko Refutes Remarks About His Sons, Wealth

In a March 11 interview on Russia's NTV channel, Lukashenko
denied the opposition candidates' allegations that he and his
sons had amassed a fortune through illegal arms sales.
Lukashenko said that he had "destroyed" his sons because they
have nothing, not even freedom and claimed that no one has
heard of scandals involving his children. According to
Lukashenko, his sons are taking the same path that he did,
beginning with school, college, and army service in an elite
unit. Lukashenko accused the opposition of relying on foreign
funding and profiting from politics and said that they can
"shoot each other to death, as was the case with these
'kidnapped' who disappeared," referring to his opponents who
disappeared in 1999 and 2000.


21. Milinkevich Speaks to 5,000 in Gomel

According to independent press figures, 5,000 voters on March
13 in a Gomel soccer stadium gathered to listen to Milinkevich.
[Note: the Milinkevich team estimates 6,000 people attended the
rally.] Milinkevich outlined his election platform and called
the presidential race a "serious struggle between the past and
the future." He called it a disgrace that Lukashenko was not
welcome in Europe. The candidate answered questions about
economic reform, land ownership, investment, education, and
labor rights. Milinkevich lambasted the authorities for the
arrests and detentions of several political activists.


22. Minsk Gives Permission for Milinkevich Concert

On March 15, the Minsk City Executive Committee gave
Milinkevich permission to hold a rock concert and rally in
Nations' Friendship Park on March 18 in Bangalore Park. Banned
rock bands such as N.R.M., Neuro Dubel, and IQ-48 are scheduled
to perform.


23. Kozulin Blasts Supreme Court Chairman

Kozulin on March 14 complained to the chairman of the Supreme
Court Valentin Sukalo about the Supreme Court's refusal to
reply to any of the opposition's formal complaints. According
to Kozulin, Sukalo has "no right" to dodge meetings with
presidential candidates and regarded his refusal to meet with
Kozulin as an evasion of official duties. Kozulin described
the current events in Belarus as a "constitutional coup" and
insisted that Sukalo meet with him within the next two days.
As of March 16, such a meeting has not taken place.


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Quote of the Week
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24. Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Natalya
Petkevich on March 15 on the possible withdrawal of opposition
candidates from the election race:

"[Their withdrawal] would be an act of human cowardice" and
would be prompted by the realization that "they stand no chance
of victory."

According to Petkevich, the street demonstrations were the
opposition's "only chance to work off money provided by Western
countries. But I [Petkevich] am sure that law-enforcement
agencies will take adequate measures."

KROL