Lukashenko Leads February Poll

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 MINSK 000285 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/16 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON BO SUBJECT: Lukashenko Leads February Poll Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) Ref: 05 MINSK 591 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a poll conducted just before the presidential campaign began, Lukashenko dominated the field and most Belarusians relied on state media for information. Still, despite lack of access and constant pro- Lukashenko/anti-opposition propaganda, pro-democracy candidate Milinkevich had attracted a respectable level of support. In the three weeks since this poll, during which it became legal (if still difficult) to meet voters and pass out campaign literature, Milinkevich's support has undoubtedly grown. End summary. ¶2. (C) Under the auspices of a DRL Human Rights and Democracy Fund small grant (reftel),the IISEPS polling service conducted the second of six opinion polls in mid- February. IISEPS polled 1,429 respondents across Belarus. IISEPS head Oleg Manaev shared the results with Ambassador on March 6. [Note: IISEPS was closed by the Supreme Court in April 2005 and opinion polling is now strictly controlled by the GOB. Therefore, please strictly protect the source of this information.] IISEPS is planning the next such poll for early April, just after the presidential elections. Prospects for Change -------------- ¶3. (SBU) This poll found that, for the most part, Belarusians are content with the direction their country is headed, and by extension with Lukashenko's rule. [Comment: the state controls nearly all media, and state news and television "documentaries" continuously explain how successful Belarus is while simultaneously claiming most of the rest of the world is falling into ruin. Such ceaseless propaganda is no doubt having an effect.] In general, is the situation in Belarus developing in a correct or incorrect direction? Correct 58.5% Incorrect 28.1% Which is more important for you, preserving the current situation in the country of change? Preserve 53.4% Change 37.8 In your view can their be an "Orange Revolution" in Belarus, like there was in Ukraine? Yes 12.0% No 76.8 Presidential Elections -------------- ¶4. (SBU) A majority of Belarusians are likely to vote to re-elect Lukashenko. [Comment: Again, the regime's endless propaganda and constant efforts to deride the opposition and keep them from presenting any alternate truths influence these results.] Has A. Lukashenko fulfilled his responsibilities as president well, and should be re-elected, or is it time to give someone else a chance? Re-elect Lukashenko 53.4% Someone Else 37.0 How would you vote if the ballot contained these four presidential candidates? Lukashenko 58.6% Milinkevich 16.5 Kozulin 6.4 Gaidukevich 4.5 For No One 6.0 MINSK 00000285 002 OF 005 If the presidential election was tomorrow, for whom would you vote? (respondent asked to write in any name) Lukashenko 57.6% Milinkevich 15.4 Kozulin 5.2 Gaidukevich 4.3 Other politician 1.1 How would you vote if the ballot contained these three presidential candidates? Gaidukevich 4.9% Lukashenko 57.9 Milinkevich 21.1 For No One 7.7 How would you vote if the ballot contained these three presidential candidates? Gaidukevich 7.2% Kozulin 12.8 Lukashenko 58.5 For No One 12.8 Which candidate would you never vote for in any circumstance? Gaidukevich 19.0% Kozulin 12.3 Lukashenko 23.8 Milinkevich 12.9 Will the March 19 presidential elections be free and fair? Yes 54.9% No 32.1 Influencing the Vote -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Lukashenko receives the highest levels of trust of voters, and more people thought another Lukashenko term as president would improve their lives more than would the election of a pro-democracy candidate. While Milinkevich's campaign team appears to have been as successful in reaching voters with its campaign literature as has Lukashenko, coverage of Lukashenko continues to dominate in the media. [Comment: Post has not seen any pro-Lukashenko campaign literature, but respondents are likely referring to Lukashenko information in state newspapers and the ubiquitous "For Belarus" posters and billboards.] How do you view these politicians? Very Very Never Heard Positive Positive Negative Negative of Him Lukashenko 31.8 34.0 16.5 13.4 0.6 Milinkevich 6.5 26.2 21.9 8.1 20.3 Gaidukevich 3.1% 20.8% 26.3% 11.1% 19.6% Kozulin 2.9 22.8 20.8 7.2 29.8 If Lukashenko is re-elected, will: Improve Remain the Same Worsen Your social position 29.9% 48.7% 12.0% Your material position 35.5 38.6 15.9 Your children's future 37.5 28.6 16.9 If a democratic candidate is elected, will: Improve Remain the Same Worsen Your social position 14.3% 37.1% 18.6% Your material position 16.7 26.6 23.1 Your children's future 21.5 21.0 20.4 Which problems for you are more important when you decide for whom you will vote for president? (can choose more than MINSK 00000285 003 OF 005 one) General Quality of Life 44.2% Rising Prices 31.8 Improving Healthcare 24.8 Employment 23.1 Democracy and Independence 18.1 Pension Levels 15.4 Corruption 9.4 Crime 8.8 Relations with Russia 8.4 Education 7.7 Relations with the West 5.3 Freedom of Religion 1.5 Whose campaign material have you received, and with which candidate's representatives have you met? Lukashenko 29.2% Milinkevich 29.9 Kozulin 16.5 Gaidukevich 13.6 From what sources have you received information about candidates and their programs? Television 47.3% Newspapers 41.1 Colleagues and Friends 23.3 Radio 20.7 Election material delivered 16.0 to my mail box Leaflets and posters in 14.1 public places Work supervisor 5.7 Internet 3.9 Meeting candidates 2.0 Have not received any 14.9 information Access to Media -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Belarusians continue to rely overwhelmingly on state media for information. Few use the internet, and the only independent newspaper to reach more than 3% of respondents is more tabloid than news (although its editor manages to publish a number of objective stories, including about the opposition). The French news channel EuroNews, broadcast in Russian, reached 16% of respondents, but only a small fraction saw the channel's coverage of Milinkevich. Which television channels do you watch? Trust? Watch Trust Do Not Trust Belarusian state TV 88.3% 67.1% 26.9% Russian channels 80.2 69.6 14.8 Cable TV 32.7 27.7 20.7 Satellite TV 16.2 16.7 20.4 Local TV 25.6 22.1 21.1 Polish TV 10.9 10.1 24.0 Ukrainian TV 9.8 9.1 22.7 Which newspapers do you read? Sovietskaya Belarussia (state) 16.1% Local papers (both) 13.2 Komsomolskaya Pravda (ind.) 12.2 Argumenty i Fakty (Russian ind.) 5.2 Narodnaya Volya (ind.) 2.7 Respublika (state) 2.2 Narodnaya Gazeta (state) 1.7 Zvyazda (state) 0.6 BDG (ind.) 0.5 7 Dnei (state) 0.4 Obozrevatel (pro-Luka ind.) 0.3 Belarusy i rynok (ind.) 0.3 Belorusskaya Gazeta (ind.) 0.2 Izvestiya (Russian ind.) 0.2 (No other newspaper received more than one percent.) Do you use the internet? MINSK 00000285 004 OF 005 Daily 4.1% Few times a week 8.6 Few times a month 9.6 Few times a year 3.7 No 63.0 What is the internet? 10.3 Do you watch EuroNews in Russian? Daily 3.9% Few times a week 11.9 Few times a month 7.0 Few times a year 4.5 Generally no 69.0 If you watch EuroNews, did you see the coverage of democratic presidential candidate Milinkevich? Yes, a few times 5.7% Yes, once 6.8 No 55.1 Society -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Lukashenko and many state organs retain the trust of the people, even though nearly half the respondents admit many Belarusians are afraid to express their views openly. And while the GOB brags that monthly salaries have risen to USD 250 a month, few respondents admit to earning that much. [Comment: These low salary figures, coupled with the high levels of trust placed in Lukashenko, again indicate the regime's "all is well" propaganda is extremely effective.] Do you trust the following state and social institutes? Trust Do Not Trust Orthodox Church 69.1% 17.7% Military 62.6 27.2 President 60.2 30.8 State Media 57.0 34.1 Catholic Church 42.0 33.9 Government 46.0 42.7 Independent Media 41.4 41.0 Courts 43.1 43.9 Central Election Commission 41.9 42.8 Human Rights Organizations 33.2 35.6 KGB 37.7 42.3 Union of Entrepreneurs 32.3 40.2 International Organizations 32.4 42.9 Local Government 37.4 51.4 Independent Trade Unions 31.3 45.1 Parliament 32.1 47.7 Police 36.0 51.8 State Trade Unions 28.7 50.2 Pro-Government Parties 28.4 50.2 Protestant Church 17.9 55.1 Independent Parties 19.8 58.4 Do you think Belarusians are ready to express their political views? No one is afraid to express views 23.7% Only some are afraid 23.2 Many are afraid 32.2 Everyone is afraid 13.5 What is the average monthly salary for those that work in your household? Up to USD 74 20.2% USD 74 to USD 116 45.0 USD 116 to USD 233 29.2 Above USD 233 4.8 International Relations -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Belarusians would prefer union with Russia over joining the EU, but most would still vote to retain MINSK 00000285 005 OF 005 Belarusian independence. Which variant of relations between Belarus and Russia is the best? Neighborly between two 45.5% independent countries Union of independent states 39.2 Unification into one state 13.6 Other 1.2 If you had to choose between union with Russia and joining the European Union, which would you choose? Union with Russia 56.3 European Union 27.5 Who is presenting a threat to the development of Belarus? (can choose more than one) The West 36.7% Belarusian authorities 17.3 Belarusian opposition 12.9 Russia 3.8 Other sources 2.5 No one is threatening 29.0 Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) This poll was conducted around the same time that campaigning for the presidential election became legal. Only after this poll did it become legal for candidates to meet with voters and pass out campaign material, so these popularity numbers have no doubt changed in recent weeks. Still, this poll is useful in presenting a baseline for Lukashenko's popularity and shows that, even before he was allowed to begin campaigning and in the face of relentless attacks in state media, a significant portion of the Belarusian people already supported Milinkevich. KROL