Belarus Buying Indian SU-30s

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000278 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/16 TAGS: PARM PREL MNUC ETTC BO SUBJECT: Belarus Buying Indian SU-30s Ref: IIR 6 937 0078 05 Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (SBU) In February a number of Indian and Russian press sources announced that Belarus was intending to buy 18 used Sukhoi SU-30 aircraft from India. According to these press reports, India acquired a number of SU-30K fighters in 1997-1998, but is now modernizing its air force. Belarus therefore intends to purchase 18 of these fighters and upgrade them inside Belarus to SU-30KN's, largely as a counter to Poland's recent purchase of F-16s. According to Indian journal India Defence, the GOB is paying USD 300 million for this deal, just under USD 17 million per aircraft. Russian paper Vedomosti reported that Russian firm Russkaya Avionika, a subsidiary of SU-30 manufacturer Irkut, would assist the GOB in modernizing the planes. Belarus Plans to Buy SU-30s; But are These only Rumors? -------------- Q*rRo"krcraft and will not acquire SU-QQQHQ#}Belarusian Security Council's 2006-2015 rearmament plan did not allocate funds for such aircraft, even though in December Levitsky told the press the GOB would eventually buy SU-30s. ¶3. (SBU) However, in June 2005 while speaking to the staff of the 927th Fighter Base in Beryoza (upset about their redeployment to a new base, reftel),President Lukashenko attempted to mollify the airmen by promising that new aircraft would soon join Belarus' inventory. Lukashenko stated, "We are considering very attractive offers for purchasing SU-30 planes for our armed forces." On February 24, Lukashenko told students at the Suvorov Military Academy that Belarus was modernizing and re-equipping its air defense network. He stated, "We will invest and have already started investing big money there; we will reequip it." Lukashenko also admitted that Belarus might soon buy SU-30K fighters, "But this is not the most important for us, the air defense system is very important to us." ¶4. (SBU) Speaking extemporaneously before the Third All Belarusian People's Congress on March 3, Lukashenko addressed rumors of massive Belarusian arms sales and explained how the Belarusian military acquires new equipment, outside the normal budget. Lukashenko told delegates that Belarus inherited large stockpiles of Soviet-era weaponry, which it has been selling since independence. He claimed that 50% of the proceeds of such sales go to the military for modernization and the other 50% are used to fund grandiose social projects, such as hockey arenas and the National Library. Indian Embassy Claims to Know Nothing -------------- ¶5. (C) On March 6, Poloff met with Tarsem Singh, First Secretary and Pol/Econ officer at the Indian Embassy in SIPDIS Minsk. Singh claimed to know nothing at all about any aircraft sales, and dismissed the press reports as untrue. Singh claimed there is little bilateral trade between Belarus and India, and much of that is Indian imports of potash fertilizer. [Note: According to GOB statistics, Belarus' bilateral trade with India reached USD 172 million in the first nine months of 2005, USD 137 million in Belarusian exports and USD 35 million in imports.] Singh added that, "Only one Belarusian compan)Q>C5F5`'t, war material, missiles and ammunition." They sell and repair all types of Soviet-bloc military equipment.] Belarus Supplies Pumps for Indian Nuclear Power Plants -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Separately, according to Belarusian press, in August a spokesman for the Bobruisk Mechanical Engineering Plant announced his company was supplying eight rotary pumps for an Indian nuclear power plant. His company had already shipped four of the pumps to Russia's Kaluga Turbine Plant, where they would be installed in turbines before being shipped to India. According to this spokesman, his company was expected to sell USD 300,000 worth of pumps to India in 2005, and also sold pumps (although not necessarily for nuclear plants) to Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Moldova, the Baltic States, Bulgaria and Greece. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The news stories on Indian SU-30 sales to Belarus, along with Lukashenko's quasi-acknowledgement, are sufficiently detailed as to be credible. While it is possible the Indian Emassyis nt awae of this deal (the Indian Embassy does not havea Defense Attache for instance),Singh's denials id not seem trustworthy. The GOB is likely makig this purchase, and is funding it through non-bdgetary means, such as arms sales. The questionremains whether the GOB can afford to maintain and fly such aircraft, or if it intends to modernize hem before selling to a third country. KROL