DAS KRAMER DISCUSSES ELECTIONS WITH MILINKEVICH

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000234

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KIEV FOR USAID
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C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - TEXT THRUOUT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: DAS KRAMER DISCUSSES ELECTIONS WITH MILINKEVICH
CAMPAIGN TEAM

REF: A. MINSK 200


B. 05 MINSK 1495

C. MINSK 0184

Classified By: AMBASSADOR GEORGE KROL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: On February 24, EUR DAS David Kramer met
with deputy campaign managers of the single opposition
candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich's campaign team Victor
Korneyenko and Aleksandr Dobrovolsky. Korneyenko confirmed
Milinkevich's plan to hold a rally on March 2, the same day
as President Lukashenko's Third All-Belarusian Assembly, and
laid out the plans for supporters to defend their vote on
Election Day. Korneyenko and Dobrovolsky discussed the
campaign's progress, noting Milinkevich's high name
recognition, as well as commenting on Milinkevich's and
Kozulin's February 22 appearances on state television.
Korneyenko relayed Milinkevich's major complaints with the
campaign process thus far, including the population's lack of
awareness about the upcoming elections, the skewed coverage
of the candidates in the state press, the Central Election
Committee's decision not to force Lukashenko to take a leave
of absence during the campaign, and the low number of
opposition members represented on the precinct
election commissions. Korneyenko defended Milinkevich's
foreign travel, including Korneyenko's recent trip to Moscow,
when Kramer commented that Milinkevich's voters are in
Belarus. Finally, Kramer reiterated U.S. interest in
Belarus, stressed the united U.S. and EU position on the
elections and pledged U.S. engagement with Belarusian society
regardless of the outcome of the elections. End Summary.


2. (C) On February 24, EUR DAS David Kramer, accompanied by
Ambassador and Embassy notetakers, met with deputy campaign
managers Victor Korneyenko and Aleksandr Dobrovolsky for 10
Plus Coalition candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich's campaign
team. At the time of the meeting, Milinkevich was in the
northern part of the country on a campaign trip and campaign
manager Sergei Kalyakin was in Prague for the PACE conference
to discuss the situation in Belarus.

Milinkevich Plans Rally, Expects Problems
--------------


3. (C) Korneyenko confirmed that Milinkevich planned to hold
a rally in Freedom Square on March 2, the same day as the
Third All-Belarus Assembly (septel). (Note: Freedom Square
is located near the site of the Third All-Belarus Assembly.)
Korneyenko hoped to have 10,000-15,000 supporters at the
rally, but expects that law enforcement officials will take
measures to decrease that number. (Note: Post estimated that
2,000-3,000 people participated in the event, while
Milinkevich campaign team activists and ODIHR observers
believed there were 5,000 supporters present.)


4. (C) Stressing that he was passing this message to all
parties, Kramer strongly underscored the importance of the
elections being concluded without any resort to force or
violence. He noted this message was mainly directed to the
Belarusian authorities, which should abide by its OSCE
obligations and allow people to peacefully protest. However,
Kramer reminded the campaign team that if they do decide to
conduct protests, they should be peaceful and
non-provocative.


5. (C) Korneyenko promised that they would try to
demonstrate peacefully, but also mentioned that it may not be
possible. Korneyenko fears that a violent or drunken
"protester" will be planted in the demonstration to start a
riot, giving the GOB the opportunity to respond with force.

Election Day Plans: Supporters to Flock to Polling Stations
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Korneyenko said that the Milinkevich campaign team is
encouraging Milinkevich supporters to go to their local
polling stations at 8 p.m. on Election Day. The team thinks
this will help prove the results of the elections were
falsified by showing the true number of people who voted for
Milinkevich. (Note: Previous plans from the Milinkevich team
included calling on Milinkevich supporters to gather in Minsk
around 10:00 p.m. following the mini-protests at the polling

stations, but Korneyenko did not mention this idea to Kramer.
Perhaps the team views such a strategy as unrealistic, given
the GOB pressures faced by Milinkevich supporters on February
17, when trying to gather in Minsk for the candidate
registration ceremony.)


7. (C) Korneyenko said that the government is gearing up to
face protests on and after Election Day. Korneyenko fears
that the GOB will impose strict restrictions on
transportation, including ordering trains or subway trains to
pass through stations in Minsk without stopping. Korneyenko
expects that the GOB will close the center of town in
addition to the campaign headquarters of the opposition.

Assessment of the Candidates' Television Performances
-------------- --------------


8. (C) When Kramer asked what the campaign team thought
about Kozulin's television appearance, Korneyenko replied
that the text of Kozulin's speech was brazen (ref A). (Note:
Kozulin aired Lukashenko's dirty laundry and made bold
accusations about the sitting president, including that he
has an illegitimate child and a mistress.) Ambassador
commented that Kozulin reminded him of Lukashenko during his
first presidential campaign in 1994. While Korneyenko
admitted that Kozulin's style might appeal to some,
Korneyenko claimed that most people do not believe or trust
Kozulin.


9. (C) When Kramer asked about Milinkevich's performance,
Korneyenko responded that Milinkevich talked about important
concepts but admitted that Milinkevich's speech lacked
energy. Korneyenko explained that Milinkevich was nervous
because he did not have much time to review the information
that his campaign team prepared for him. Despite the 10 Plus
Coalition candidate's lackluster performance, Korneyenko
claimed that the people still liked Milinkevich.


10. (C) Kramer responded that the U.S. has been impressed
with Milinkevich's rise, but also stressed that the U.S.
supports a democratic process of free and fair elections and
not any one candidate.

Milinkevich's Numbers Are Good, But He Needs More Time
-------------- --------------


11. (C) Korneyenko said that Milinkevich is doing well in the
polls. Korneyenko reported that Milinkevich's name
recognition is at 60 percent according to Gallup polls. In
Minsk, Lukashenko and Milinkevich's numbers are close;
Lukashenko is polling at 33.5 percent and Milinkevich is not
far behind at 27.5 percent. (Note: Milinkevich's positive
numbers result from a poll that relies on name recognition,
not name recall. Since Milinkevich's name recognition is
high, the results might be slightly inflated.) In the rural
areas, however, Lukashenko leads at 69.5 percent compared to
Milinkevich's 12.5 percent. Korneyenko reported that
Kozulin's numbers were in the low single digits. Korneyenko
said that Milinkevich's polling numbers exploded early and
Korneyenko and Dobrovolsky agreed that Milinkevich needs more
time to win this election. Regardless of the result of the
elections, Korneyenko said the 10 Plus Coalition will not go
back over the campaign and point fingers at who is to blame.
Instead, they will try to remain united after the elections.

Campaign Team's Major Complaints
--------------


12. (C) Korneyenko reported that they are not very happy with
the way the campaign has proceeded. The campaign
headquarters had originally wanted 10,000 volunteers working
during the nomination phase to collect signatures, but were
only able to get 3,000 (ref B). Korneyenko made repeated
comments that Kozulin's team had more resources, which makes
it difficult for Milinkevich's team to negotiate with Kozulin
even if Milinkevich's team does have better ideas.


13. (C) Kramer asked what points of concern should he raise
in his meeting later that day with the Central Election
Committee (CEC). Korneyenko immediately responded that
Kramer should ask why the CEC insists on a passive, almost

uneventful campaign. Korneyenko expressed his incredulity
about the low-level of awareness among the population about
the upcoming elections. He noted that the elections are
three weeks away and there are few signs in Minsk that there
is a campaign going on. He also explained that volunteers
are not able to campaign effectively because local government
authorities, who control where candidates can gather and
distribute information, assign the opposition volunteers such
obscure places to speak or distribute information that that
the information is not reaching the people. Finally,
Korneyenko complained about the time the campaign team lost
in the two weeks of dead time from when the candidates
submitted their nomination signatures until they received
their candidate registrations.


14. (C) Korneyenko went on to complain about the state press'
coverage of the elections. He said that Lukashenko receives
hours of positive coverage in the state media every week (ref
C),while the little coverage that the opposition gets is
negative or neutral at best. Dobrovolsky also added that
access to the press is another main problem. Dobrovolsky
pointed out that candidates cannot publish their platforms in
the independent press because it violates election laws as
"illegal campaign financing." Dobrovolsky also mentioned
that the time slots for the pre-recorded television segments
were ineffective since they broadcast during rush hour when
most people are not in front of a television.


15. (C) Korneyenko also noted that Lukashenko has not taken a
leave of absence, as he is required according to Article 77
of the Election Code. The rule states that any candidate
campaigning for President must take a leave of absence from
work after being registered. The law specifies, however,
that presidential incumbents seeking a second term are exempt
from the rule. Korneyenko complained that Lukashenko is
seeking a third term, not a second, and therefore he should
be required to take a leave of absence. Korneyenko claimed
that CEC head Lidya Yermoshina's response to these
allegations was that the Election Code has not been updated
to reflect the November referendum, which allows a President
to run for a third term. Yermoshina continued that while the
law specifically mentions a second term and not a third, the
"spirit of the law" implies that Lukashenko does not have to
take a leave of absence. (Note: This position contradicts
Yermoshina's and the CEC's prior rulings where they have
closely followed the letter of a law, and not its spirit.)


16. (C) Korneyenko also asked Kramer to raise the issue of
skewed representation on the precinct electoral commissions
where only one out of 74,000 commission workers was a member
of an opposition party.
Campaign Team Defends Milinkevich's Foreign Travel
-------------- --------------


17. (C) Kramer said that the West is impressed with
Milinkevich's rise and the impression that he has made
abroad, but reminded him that people outside of Belarus
cannot vote in the upcoming elections. Kramer encouraged the
campaign team to focus Milinkevich's efforts on Belarus.
Korneyenko stated that Milinkevich's trips abroad helped him
gather support from Belarusians as well. According to
Korneyenko, millions of Belarusians saw Euronews' coverage of
Milinkevich's European visit, which helped present a
favorable image of Milinkevich as a candidate who can meet
and converse comfortably with foreign leaders.


Russian Analysts Wash Their Hands of Milinkevich
-------------- ---


18. (C) Korneyenko just returned from Moscow where he met
mainly with analysts, including Vladimir Ryzhkov, Slava
Nikinov, Sergei Karaganov and Nikita Belykh, at a conference
entitled "Belarus: The Apple of Contention Between Russia and
the West." Korneyenko said that Russia is trying to make
Belarus a point of contention between Russia and the West,
forcing Belarus to choose. Milinkevich's campaign team tried
to persuade the participants that Belarus does not have to
choose, but can work with both. Korneyenko reported that the

analysts already have their minds made up about the elections
in Belarus; they have little information and they will not
get any more. According to Korneyenko, Karaganov and Nikinov
have "reliable sources" in Belarus telling them 90 percent of
the population support Lukashenko.

Kramer Reaffirms U.S. Long-term Commitment to Belarus
-------------- --------------


19. (C) Kramer stressed to the members of the campaign team
that the EU and the United States are very interested in
Belarus and remain united on the elections in Belarus.
Kramer renewed U.S. commitment to Belarus and pledged that
whatever the outcome of the elections, the U.S. will continue
to engage Belarusian civil society and political opposition.

Krol