BKGB CLAIMS OPPOSITION COUP ATTEMPT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000224 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM SUBJECT: BKGB CLAIMS OPPOSITION COUP ATTEMPT REF: A. MINSK 192 ¶B. 05 MINSK 1163 Classified By: Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Chairman of the BKGB Stepan Sukhorenko on March 1 claimed his organization had foiled opposition plans to detonate a bomb during a demonstration on Election Day, resulting in a bloody coup that would ¶lyze8 Belarus. Sukhorenko accused the unregistered election monitoring NGO Partnership, an &illegal8 organization controlled and funded by the U.S. NGO National Democratic Institute (NDI), of planning to spread false exit polling results on Election Day to provoke a demonstration. Sukhorenko showed &evidence8 seized from an apartment owned by one of the arrested Partnership leaders such as falsified exit polls, coded information, U.S. currency, mobile phones, and a gas gun. Sukhorenko said little about the actual plans for a bomb, but claimed that if the opposition continued with its plan, the BKGB would arrest the masterminds and executioners. End Summary. The Opposition,s Plan -------------- ¶2. (U) In a March 1 meeting with BKGB department heads, Deputy General Prosecutor Nikolai Kupriyanov, and state media correspondents, Chairman of the BKGB Stepan Sukhorenko accused the opposition of planning to bomb a crowd of its own demonstrators after the March 19 presidential elections in an attempt to trigger a government coup. According to Sukhorenko, the opposition intends to use false exit polling results to contest official election results, entice several thousand opposition supporters to a square in downtown Minsk, bomb the supporters, and use this violence as reason to overthrow the government. Sukhorenko predicted that the sight of &blood and victims8 would give the protest organizers a &free hand8 to &take the buildings of government agencies and train stations, block railroads in order to paralyze the state.8 The KGB chairmen accused representatives of several Belarusian NGOs and militants from Georgia, Ukraine, and former Yugoslavia of being the masterminds and executioners of the plan. Partnership Involved -------------- ¶3. (C) Sukhorenko accused arrested leaders of the independent election monitoring NGO Partnership (ref A) of being involved in the plot, claiming that their role was to accuse authorities of rigging the vote. The BKGB chairman called Partnership a secretive underground organization created, controlled, and financed by the U.S. NGO National Democratic Institute (NDI). Sukhorenko named David Hamilton, head of NDI,s Belarus program but based in Kiev, as being directly involved in this plot. Sukhorenko showed video footage of Partnership activist Timofei Dranchuk,s interrogation in which he spoke about foreign funding of short- and long-term observers. He also showed &evidence8 seized from the apartment of one of the arrested Partnership leaders, such as coded information, 100 mobile phones with SIM cards of Lithuanian GSM operators, thousands of U.S. dollars, a gas gun, and falsified reports of exit polls dated March 19 that stated &results8 from 107 polling stations and gave opposition candidate Milinkevich 53.7 percent, Lukashenko 41.3, Kozulin 3.8 percent, and Gaidukevich 1.2 percent of the vote. ¶4. (C) Comment: Post understands the cell phones were actually bought by the U.S. NGO International Republican Institute (IRI) in 2004, smuggled into Belarus, and given to the independent polling service IISEPS for exit polling during the parliamentary elections. After the 2004 elections, IISEPS director Oleg Manaev gave the phones to a businessman friend, who has no connection to politics, to store. On February 21, the day the leaders of Partnership were arrested, the BKGB raided Manaev,s friend,s business and seized all the phones. The seizure was a USD 10,000 dollar loss for IISEPS. End comment. The Purported Bomb -------------- ¶5. (U) Sukhorenko did not give details about the planned bombing during a demonstration and predicted the opposition leadership would not go through with the plan after the BKGB had made it public. However, the BKGB would continue to investigate and should the opposition continue with their plan, the BKGB would quickly to find the explosives and arrest all those involved. MINSK 00000224 002 OF 002 Foreign Diplomats &Involved8 -------------- ¶6. (U) Sukhorenko further blamed foreign embassies for &assisting8 the opposition and &actively8 participating in changing the government leadership. He accused foreign governments of transferring thousands of dollars to small political parties via embassies in an attempt to destabilize Belarus. The BKGB chairman called these alleged acts violations of the Vienna Convention on noninterference in the internal affairs of a sovereign country. Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Sukhorenko,s statements came one day before Milinkevich,s planned election rally in Freedom Square, which the authorities have already called an illegal gathering that will be disbanded (septel). The BKGB has accused the opposition of planning bombings in the past, including two small explosions over the past year in Vitebsk (ref B),but no activists have been arrested. Sukhorenko,s theory of a coup attempt is the latest of regime efforts to provide a pretext to increase harassment of the opposition and prevent demonstrations, further frighten Belarusians, and discredit the opposition and the Western countries who support democracy. It is also a clear sign the regime will ratchet up its effort to ensure the elections will be conducted under complete regime control. Krol