PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES BEGIN THEIR CAMPAIGNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MINSK 000191 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES BEGIN THEIR CAMPAIGNS REF: MINSK 44 Classified By: Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On February 17, the Central Election Committee (CEC) registered President Aleksandr Lukashenko, 10 Coalition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich, former rector of Belarusian State University Aleksandr Kozulin, and leader of the Libera Democratic Party Sergey Gaidukevich as officialpresidential candidates, signaling the beginning o the second phase of the presidential elections campaigning. Milinkevich immediately began his cmpaign with a symbolic march to Minsk,s Victory quare followed by trips to regional capitals. Wereas the President will use his administrative esources to campaign as he wishes, the CEC and Mnsk city authorities have restricted the amount of money opposition candidates can spend, when and were candidates can meet with voters, and how muc media access candidates will have. Violating tese regulations can result in a candidate,s immeiate disqualification from the presidential race. End Summary. The Registration Process -------------- ¶2. (U) Before registering canidates on February 17, the CEC verified the contnders, signatures and reviewed their income and roperty statements, backgrounds, and violations o the electoral code. During the registration ceremny, three CEC members voted against registering ilinkevich because his wife reportedly did not tmely file a declaration for the income she receied when she sold her car. CEC Secretary Nikolai ozovik repeatedly urged his colleagues to SIPDIS overlok this &minor8 violation and accept Milinkevich asa candidate. Decisions on other candidates, regstration were unanimous. Candidate Registratin Complete -------------- ¶3. U) During a February 17 ceremony at the Palace of he Republic, the CEC registered President Aleksadr Lukashenko, 10 Coalition leader Aleksandr Miinkevich, former rector of the Belarusian State niversity Aleksandr Kozulin, and leader of the Lieral Democratic Party Sergey Gaidukevich as offiial presidential candidates. During their brief peeches, Milinkevich spoke about violations commited by the GOB thus far in the electoral process,lack of democracy, and political prisoners while ozulin openly criticized Lukashenko, calling himan &uncontrollable dictator8 and an &illegal8 paticipant in the upcoming election. Lukashenko dd not react to the criticisms, but spoke aboutstaility and preserving peace and warned foreign countries not to interfere in the election. The President congratulated all the candidates, but onlyshook hands with Gaidukevich, who in his speech disagreed with Milinkevich and Kozulin,s criticisms. (Note: Kozulin,s criticism of Lukashenko angered CEC Head Lidiya Yermoshina, who later accused Kozulin of illegally insulting and slandering GOB officials. She warned candidates that they would be disqualified if future speeches contain such &slander.8) State Support for Candidates -------------- ¶4. (U) The state will provide each candidate USD 30,000 from the national budget to cover campaign costs, but a candidate can be disqualified if he uses more than this amount or receives other financial assistance. Candidates will be able to publish their platforms in seven state-run newspapers and each candidate can present a &prerecorded8 speech on two 30-minute time slots on the state-controlled radio station First Belarusian Radio and two 30-minute time-slots on Belarusian National TV (BT). On February 17, the CEC allocated time slots to the candidates: Candidate TG Radio -------------- -------------- -------------- Luka. Feb. 21 18:30-19:00 Feb. 24 08:30-09:00 Mar. 01 18:00-18:30 Mar. 03 08:00-08:30 Mili. Feb. 22 18:00-18:30 Feb. 27 08:30-09:00 Mar. 02 18:30-19:00 Mar. 06 08:00-08:30 Koz. Feb. 22 18:30-19:00 Feb. 27 08:00-08:30 Mar. 02 18:00-18:30 Mar. 06 08:30-09:00 Gaid. Feb. 21 18:00-18:30 Feb. 24 08:00-08:30 MINSK 00000191 002 OF 004 Mar. 01 18:30-19:00 Feb. 24 20:30-21:00 Milinkevich First Out of The Starting Block -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Following the registration ceremony at the Palace of the Republic, 200 to 300 Milinkevich supporters, holding placards designating the regions from which they came and shouting &Milinkevich, Milinkevich, Milinkevich,8 &Live Belarus,8 and Milinkevich,s new campaign slogan &Freedom, Truth, and Justice,8 gathered on October Square to celebrate his registration. (Note: Belarusian Popular Front,s (BPF) press office initially reported 1,000 supporters were present, but Milinkevich,s regional travel manager Ales Yanukevich on February 21 told POLOFF 500 supporters were present.) Milinkevich spoke briefly on October Square before leading his supporters down Minsk,s main street to Victory Square to lay flowers at the WWII memorial. Milinkevich then called on supporters to defend their vote and encouraged them to take part in a March 2 demonstration at Freedom Square. ¶6. (C) Yanukevich stated that Milinkevich,s performance following the registration evoked the most positive reaction from the supporters. Few Kozulin supporters were on the square waiting for their candidate and eventually (according to Yanukevich) joined Milinkevich,s crowd. Lukashenko left the Palace of the Republic through a backdoor. Yanukevich noted that supporters from all regions of Belarus traveled to Minsk to celebrate Milinkevich,s registration, but several groups were stopped by police for &unfounded and baseless8 reasons, such as not stopping at pedestrian crossings or for riding in allegedly stolen vehicles. In one case, a group from Zhlobin was detained once they entered Minsk,s city limits. However, the large BKGB and police presence during Milinkevich,s march did not result in any arrests. ¶7. (C) Milinkevich immediately began his regional travels following registration. According to Yanukevich, on February 18, Milinkevich spoke to 200 supporters on the street in Bobruisk (since the local government refused to grant him a venue) and to 500 supporters at a conference hall in Mogilev. On February 19, he met with supporters in Zhlobin and Svetlagorsk and 750 people attended a meeting with the candidate in Gomel. On February 20, Milinkevich met with 350 supporters in Rechitsa before returning to Minsk. He is currently preparing a recording of his speech that will air on Belarus, National TV (BT) on February 22. Kozulin,s Rocky Start -------------- ¶9. (U) Independent news coverage does not indicate that Kozulin,s campaign has gained as much momentum as Milinkevich,s. In fact, Kozulin,s election campaign has had a rough beginning. Following his February 17 registration, Kozulin and members of his campaign team elbowed their way into the National Press Center demanding an impromptu press conference. Kozulin was denied access despite showing his presidential candidate certificate. Consequently, Kozulin began aggressively trying to force the door open until security personnel physically tried to move Kozulin out of the building, resulting in a grabbing and shoving match. (Comment: A state media cameraman was in position to film the entire incident, which later aired on the February 19 BT episode of Center of Attention (see para 14),throwing Kozulin in a bad light.) ¶10. (U) After the scuffle and still denied access, Kozulin spoke to Belarusian and foreign journalists in the lobby of the National Press Center, telling them that if he became president, Belarus would revert back to observing the rule of law. Kozulin then blamed President Lukashenko, commander of the 3214 quick response regiment Colonel Dmitry Pavlichenko, and former Head of the Presidential Administration Viktor Shieman for the disappearances of opposition political figures and noted details of the investigation. Kozulin is currently in Minsk preparing his first prerecorded speech that will air on BT on February 22. His campaign team continues to campaign door-to-door distributing leaflets. Gaidukevich -------------- ¶11. (U) On February 21, Gaidukevich,s first 2006 campaign speech aired on BT. He stressed that Belarus, foreign policy should fit the goals of the country,s development and should work for the benefit of the economy. Gaidukevich listed steps to expand integrations within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS),the Eurasian Economic Community, MINSK 00000191 003 OF 004 and the Common Economic Space to remove barriers to trade and business. He opined that Belarusian embassies should work harder to promote trade and economic ties with foreign countries and called for Belarus, accession to the World Trade Organization. Gaidukevich stated that EU expansion eastward would draw Belarus closer economically and that Belarus should develop political and economic dialog with the U.S., China, India, Japan, and the Middle East. Lukashenko Uses Concerts For Campaigning -------------- ¶12. (U) Earlier in February, opposition candidates filed complaints with the CEC claiming that President Lukashenko was using a series of free-admittance concerts titled &For Belarus8 (Lukashenko,s slogan for the 2004 referendum allowing him to run for a third term) as an early electioneering tactic. The CEC dismissed this, claiming that the concerts and its slogan could apply to all candidates. However, during a February 20 airing of a &For Belarus8 concert, the purpose behind the extravagant concert was obvious. Gigantic Belarusian flags with &For Belarus8 and &For Batka8 (self-imposed nickname for Lukashenko, meaning Father,) waved on mechanical wands. The concert hosts would try to excite the crowd between performances, yelling &For Belarus,8 &Choose, Choose,8 and &We are the clean, generation8 followed by loud applause. (Note: During the loud applause, the video footage of the crowd showed them sitting calmly in their seats.) The cameras periodically focused on the large BRSM (Belarusian Republican Youth Movement, pro-Lukashenko youth group) banners on the stage and audience members wearing BRSM t-shirts. Most of the concert performers were very young and energetic and would randomly shout, &You know who you should vote for.8 (Comment: These performers have greatly benefited from Lukashenko,s decree that 75 percent of radio play lists should be music performed by Belarusian artists. They are, no doubt, greatly indebted to the President for their success as pop stars.) ¶13. (U) On February 20, Lukashenko did not appear at the BT television station to record his speech, which was to air on February 21. Neither he nor his administration gave a reason for the President,s absence. In 2001, Lukashenko also waived one of his television spots. Election Coverage -------------- ¶14. (U) The state media has increased its coverage of the election process, but it still refrains from using the opposition candidates, names as much as possible and continues to smear their reputations. BT,s February 19 episode of &Center of Attention8 briefly showed all the candidates giving their registration speech, but then followed with an expose on what makes a great leader. During this expose, various employment agency directors commented that a good leader needed to be charismatic, decisive, and energetic and opined that the opposition candidates did not have these qualities. Other footage showed Kozulin being denied entrance to the Palace of the Republic during a press conference and his angry and physical response with the young adults who would not let him in. (Comment: The altercation seemed to be a set up given that security at the Palace of the Republic instigated the confrontation and the state media was already in position to cover it.) Throughout the show, opposition candidates were referred to as the &unemployed.8 (Note: BT will air on February 26 a &documentary8 called The Controllable House, which investigates &U.S.-financed8 revolutions and their consequences.) Inequalities in Campaigning -------------- ¶15. (U) Although the GOB is providing assistance to all candidates, it is miserly compared to Lukashenko,s administrative resources and unlimited access to the state media, which he uses to call opposition candidates thugs and Western stooges. Opposition candidates can only count on having media access allotted by CEC regulations. Belarusian laws prohibit criticizing the President and GOB, and since the contenders, presentations are to be prerecorded, the authorities will have cart blanche to edit as they chose. The small independent press would have been the opposition candidates, only outlet for extra publicity, but on February 8, CEC Chair Yermoshina warned candidates that campaigning in the independent press was a form of illegal financial support and a violation of electoral law. MINSK 00000191 004 OF 004 ¶16. (U) On February 11, the Minsk City Executive Committee listed 30 places, mostly parks away from the city center, where presidential candidates would be allowed to hold meetings and 39 places where candidates were allowed to post and distribute their campaign materials. The Committee stated that police were instructed to prevent candidates from holding rallies and distributing campaign materials in non-specified areas. On February 15, the Minsk City Executive Committee,s ideology department reminded candidates that they must get permission from the city government before meeting with voters. However, since such meetings are related to the presidential campaign, candidates need to submit for permission only two days, rather than the usual 15 days, before the event. The ideology department claimed that this process was to avoid scheduling conflicts with other candidates. Meetings held without permission will be considered illegal rallies. These restrictions will not apply to Lukashenko. Comment -------------- ¶17. (C) The candidates, registration and Milinkevich,s energetic start to his campaign raises some hope that change may be possible. The number of people Milinkevich meets with in the regions has greatly increased since he was first nominated as the 10 candidate in October. However, like the signature collecting before it (reftel),the campaigning portion of the election process is susceptible to inequalities and manipulations in favor of Lukashenko. We expect the GOB to use any means possible to restrict the opposition candidates from meeting with the electorate while the President uses his free reign over the media and government to further propagate himself as &Batka8 of Belarus. Krol