BELARUS AND THE ELECTIONS ACCORDING TO 2001

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000174

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL
SUBJECT: BELARUS AND THE ELECTIONS ACCORDING TO 2001
CANDIDATE GONCHARIK

REF: MINSK 1528

Classified By: Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Ambassador recently met with former trade
union leader and 2001 &single8 opposition presidential
candidate Vladimir Goncharik to discuss the current political
and economic environment in Belarus. Goncharik noted
Belarus, worsening political and economic situation and
Belarusians, growing dissatisfaction with their country,s
leadership. The former opposition leader believes President
Lukashenko will win the elections in part because the
opposition has failed to convince the public that life would
be better under a new leader. The opposition needed to focus
its time on garnering support rather than attending
conferences and seminars. Following the elections, Goncharik
predicted that Belarus, economy will worsen and the GOB
would take further measures to increase its control over the
people. End Summary.


2. On February 6, former leader of the Federation of Trade
Unions of Belarus (FTUB) and opposition contender in the 2001
presidential elections Vladimir Goncharik called on
Ambassador. Goncharik was chosen as the democratic forces,
opposition presidential candidate one month before the
elections. Semyon Domash backed out of the race and threw
his support behind Goncharik. According to the official
voting tally in 2001, Lukashenko won 75.65 percent of the
vote, pro-Lukashenko MP Sergey Gaidukevich 2.48 percent, and
Goncharik 15.65 percent. Independent international and
domestic observers concluded the 2001 presidential elections
did not meet international standards.

The Situation Worsens
--------------


3. (C) On February 6, Goncharik told Ambassador that he had
dj vu when looking at Belarus, current political
situation, likening it to the political scene before the 2001
elections, but only worse. Goncharik was pessimistic towards
Belarus, immediate future, noting that the economic,
political, and social situation in Belarus had deteriorated
in the last five years. Wages increased as the President
promised, but so did the price of goods. According to
production levels, Belarus, economy grew, but only because
of cheap Russian fuel and not from sales. According to
Goncharik, President Lukashenko,s critical mistake was not
transforming the economy into a free market system when he
first took power. He thought that Lukashenko,s increasing
control over the economy had created a situation that would
make it more difficult to introduce free market principles
today than it would have been in 2001. Goncharik stated that
the GOB needed to encourage investment and offer incentives
to business rather than trying to control them. Fear has
gripped society, and GOB policies, such as the newly
introduced contract system, work well to control the people.


4. (C) According to Goncharik, Belarusians, dissatisfaction
with the country,s situation is greater because more of the
populace is now facing problems that did not affect them in

2001. Not one company manager or director with whom
Goncharik has met was satisfied with the current system.
Goncharik believes that Lukashenko is aware of the growing
dissatisfaction, but fortunately for him, the population is
focused more on the possible negative consequences of
democratic change, such as a significant increase in
unemployment and pension loss, rather than the benefits.

Milinkevich and Kozulin Do Not Have a Chance in Lukashenko,s
Election System
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Goncharik doubted presidential contenders Aleksandr
Milinkevich and Aleksandr Kozulin would win a significant
number of votes in the upcoming presidential elections. The
GOB already &predicted8 that Lukashenko would receive 70-75
percent of the vote and the opposition candidates would not
receive a high enough percentage to legitimately protest.
According to Goncharik, Lukashenko,s support ratings are
closer to 45-55 percent and Milinkevich,s are 20-30 percent.
If Milinkevich could increase his ratings to 35-40 percent,
Goncharik believes the presidential contender would have the
support needed to mount an effective protest.



6. (C) Goncharik doubted Kozulin would vigorously pursue the
presidency to the very end because he had too much to lose.
Kozulin is relatively young with little affiliation to a
political party, many good contacts in the nomenclature, and
in general could still have a bright future in Lukashenko,s
Belarus. Goncharik predicted that if Kozulin continued with
the race, he would lose these opportunities, ending up like
Milinkevich and (as he admitted) Goncharik.

Is Kozulin a GOB Pawn?
--------------


7. (C) Ambassador noted the irony of why an opposition
activist like Mikhail Marinich was sitting in jail for a
speculative crime while Kozulin, who was accused of
corruption while being rector of Belarusian State University,
remained free as a presidential contender. Goncharik
dismissed rumors that Kozulin was not in jail because he was
a GOB stooge. Goncharik pointed out that opposition
activists Marinich and Sergey Skrebets did not go to jail
immediately for their anti-Lukashenko activities. He
predicted that if Kozulin became a bigger threat to
Lukashenko, he would be sent to jail like the others.

Support for Opposition Parties Remains Low
--------------


8. (C) Aside from GOB measures to marginalize and taint the
opposition, Goncharik posited that the oppositional political
parties have been unable to develop a coherent, attractive,
and relevant message to voters. Without this, the opposition
would not get the popular support it needed to secure
political reform in Belarus. Goncharik argued that the
opposition must change its strategy to stave off decreasing
party membership and party members, lack of faith in their
leaders. Goncharik said another problem was that the
opposition leadership wasted its energy on technical details,
such as conferences and seminars, rather than meeting with
constituents and garnering support. Goncharik noted that in
the last five years, not one charismatic or colorful leader
has emerged from the opposition. The opposition needs to
capitalize on the populace,s dissatisfaction with the status
quo by convincing people that life would be better under new
leadership.

Two Paths After the Elections
--------------


9. (C) Goncharik predicted that Belarus would experience
economic problems following the elections because all GOB
resources were being used to maintain Lukashenko,s popular
social programs and these resources will soon be depleted.
(Comment: Most political and economical analysts believe that
the Belarusian economy will decline due to other factors,
such as a sharp increase in prices for Russian gas in 2007
and the loss of competitiveness of Belarusian goods in the
Russian market (reftel).) Goncharik was not sure what
Lukashenko would do after the elections. He could decide to
increase his control over society, further cracking down on
opposition elements, or could loosen up his grip and
reintroduce a few democratic practices, such as reopening
independent newspapers and arranging for opposition MPs to
return to Parliament. Goncharik believed the second variant
would make Lukashenko appear as less of a dictator and could,
ironically, hurt the opposition,s fight.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Goncharik,s assessment of the dissatisfaction and
fear among the citizens is what we often hear from many
political and society leaders. Perhaps his negative
assessment of the opposition,s tactics is due to his own
failure as a presidential candidate in 2001 and the
opposition,s treatment of him as a virtual non-person, but
we have heard similar views from other observers of the
opposition political scene.
Krol