Suspicious Belarusian Trade

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000148 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ETRD PREL USTR BO SUBJECT: Suspicious Belarusian Trade ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In recent years, Minsk has actively sought to increase trade and relations with pariah states as a counterbalance to Western pressures to democratize and as evidence that Lukashenko's rule is accepted abroad. Despite these efforts, trade with these Outposts of Tyranny and State Sponsors of Terror only accounted for 0.43% of Belarusian trade in the first nine months of ¶2005. In addition, the GOB publicly admits it is a major arms exporter, but does not provide any public record or detail of arms sales. These trade figures open a window to Belarus' opaque arms transfers. The data shows relatively large exports to a number of suspected buyers of Belarusian weapons, including Syria, Iran, Libya, Eritrea, Algeria and others, with no or very low levels of imports, indicating this is not normal bilateral trade. End summary. ¶2. (U) These numbers only analyze Belarus' foreign trade for the first nine months of 2005, the latest data available in detailed form. A general analysis of Belarusian foreign trade can be found septel. Outposts of Tyranny/State Sponsors of Terror -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The GOB makes frequent pronouncements of successful and growing trade with outposts of tyranny (as designated by Secretary Rice in her January 2005 Senate confirmation hearing). Largely to counter its political isolation, Minsk is seeking new friends and markets among pariah states, and its external trade reflects this trend. Of the five other "outposts of tyranny" (Cuba, Burma, Zimbabwe, Iran, and North Korea; Belarus is the sixth),Belarus has the strongest trade ties with Iran (USD 28.6 million in the first nine months of the year) and Cuba (USD 17.2 million). Trade with North Korea reached USD 5.5 million, Burma USD 471,100, and Zimbabwe USD 398,300. Trade with North Korea, Iran, Zimbabwe and Burma grew compared with 2004, by 203%, 111%, 157% and 9,059% (although still at low levels) respectively. Trade with Cuba fell by half compared to the year before. ¶4. (U) Belarus traded USD 29.5 million with Syria, a state sponsor of terror, in the first nine months of 2005. Sudan, like Syria, is another state sponsor of terror with which the GOB is continuously working to improve relations. Bilateral trade with Sudan was only USD 3.3 million. Trade with the last state sponsor of terror, Libya, more than doubled to USD 14.9 million. For all three of these countries, bilateral trade consisted almost entirely of Belarusian exports, raising the possibility these numbers reflect arms sales. ¶5. (U) Trade with these pariah states totaled USD 99.9 million, or just 0.43% of Belarus' total trade. Despite Minsk's rhetoric and attempts to expand political and economic ties with likeminded regimes, these countries still constitute only a tiny percentage of Belarus' foreign trade. Suspicious Exports, Possibly Arms -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Belarus' export data shows suspiciously high levels of exports to certain countries, not matched by correspondingly high imports. The nature of these countries, and the disproportionate level of exports from Belarus, compared to their neighbors, indicates these countries are likely purchasing arms or dual- purpose equipment from Minsk. This is especially true given the large number of Soviet-era arms companies located in Belarus, and the GOB's stated intention to remain one of the world's largest arms exporters. For the first three quarters of 2005, trade with these countries was (in US dollars): Belarus' exports Belarus' imports China 307.4 million 195.1 million Syria 29.2 million 243,600 Iran 26.6 million 2.0 million Libya 14.9 million zero Eritrea 7.5 million zero Algeria 4.4 million zero ¶N. Korea 3.8 million 1.6 million Sudan 3.3 million 100 Djibouti 2.6 million zero Angola 2.3 million 100 Ivory Coast 1.6 million 3.8 million MINSK 00000148 002 OF 002 Yemen 90,000 zero ¶7. (SBU) Much of this might be legitimate, non-military trade. However, given the opacity of Belarusian arms exports, the political and military situations in these countries, and in many cases their history of having purchased Belarusian weaponry, many of these Belarusian exports are likely military goods. Other Possible Arms Buyers -------------- ¶8. (SBU) There are a number of other countries with which Belarus has a large trade surplus. Outside of petroleum products, which mainly go to Europe, Belarus' main exports are potash and trucks/trailers and military equipment, although the GOB does not release data on arms sales. [Note: Again, much of this trade is likely for civilian uses, but given the structure of Belarus' exports, much of this probably is military or dual purpose. In some of these cases, these countries may have little to sell to Belarus. Given the complete opaqueness of Belarus' arms exports, Post cannot authoritatively say which of these countries import arms, and with which Belarus sim`ly has a strong trade surplus in non-military goods.] Belarus' exports Belarus' imports India 136.9 million 34.9 million Pakistan 48.3 million 2.6 million Vietnam 30.5 million 1.7 million Serbia 28.1 million 8.4 million Egypt 27.1 million 4.9 million Croatia 16.6 million 5.7 million Venezuela 13.6 million 19,800 Cuba 10.2 million 7.0 million Bangladesh 9.1 million 521,300 Afghanistan 9.0 million 81,100 Bosnia 8.1 million 26,600 Lebanon 7.7 million 52,600 Panama 5.2 million 46,700 Albania 5.1 million zero Mongolia 4.7 million 6,400 Guinea 4.4 million zero Jordan 3.6 million 62,800 Brunei 3.4 million 100 Nigeria 3.3 million 12,100 Saudi Arabia 2.5 million 306,900 Guatemala 1.4 million 15,700 Burkina Faso 1.1 million zero Tanzania 818,700 24,100 Congo 621,000 zero Sierra Leone 583,900 493,000 Burma 470,900 200 Senegal 258,800 2,800 Nepal 141,700 7,900 Iraq 78,200 zero Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Belarus' efforts to improve economic relations with pariah states are limited by the simple fact that, other than weapons, these countries have very little to offer each other. These countries can certainly find political comfort in their common isolation from the West, but despite Lukashenko's aggressive rhetoric against the West, Belarus is becoming increasingly dependent on Western markets. Trade with the United States alone, Lukashenko's main public enemy, was three-and-a-half times higher than with all the pariah states combined. Trade with democratic neighbor Poland, another object of the state media's vitriolic attacks, was ten times higher. PHLIPOT