OPPOSITION DENIED PARTICIPATION IN ELECTION

UNCLAS MINSK 000138 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SUBJECT: OPPOSITION DENIED PARTICIPATION IN ELECTION PRECINCT COMMISIONS ¶1. (U) Summary: On December 30, the Central Election Committee announced the results of the territorial (regional and municipal) commission nomination process. Out of the 2,124 members, only one was a representative of the opposition, despite the dozens of nominations opposition parties submitted. On February 2, the results of the precinct commission nomination process showed that out of the 74,104 precinct members, only two were representatives of opposition parties. Most of the commission representatives are state employees, putting into question their independence from the authorities. The outraged opposition considered the results an indication of Lukashenko,s insincerity in conducting free and fair elections. End Summary. Territorial Commissions Formed -------------- ¶2. (U) The Central Election Committee (CEC) on December 30 announced that 165 territorial (regional and municipal) election commissions were formed with 2,124 members, averaging 13 people per commission. Political parties represented 2.6 percent of territorial commission members, most of which were pro-Lukashenko parties such as the Communist Party of Belarus, the Liberal Democratic Party, the Social Sports Party, the Republican Party of Labor and Justice, and the Agrarian Party. (Comment: The last three parties seem to only exist during election season.) Twenty percent of the territorial commissions represented the pro-Lukashenko &NGOs8 Belarusian National Youth Union, the Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus (FTUB),and the Belarusian Women,s Union. Thirty percent of commission members represented the manufacturing, transport, trade, and construction sectors, 22.7 percent represented civil servants, 12.1 percent represented educators, and 7.2 percent were farm representatives. Representatives from worker collectives made up 19.2 percent. The Opposition Is Left Out -------------- ¶3. (U) Out of all the candidates nominated by opposition political parties, only one Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) member was included on the territorial commissions. (Note: BPF member Ales Yanukevich told Poloff on February 7 that this member was nominated by a working collective and not by the BPF.) Sergei Kalyakin, leader of the Belarusian Party of Communists (BPC) and campaign manager for 10 candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich considered the results an indication that the GOB would not conduct free and transparent elections. Not one of the BPC,s 70 nominees was selected to the commissions. The United Civic Party (UCP) nominated 38 members to the territorial commissions, but all were excluded. The BPF nominated 30 members. The BPC complained to the heads of local governments, urging them to abide by the country,s Electoral Code. The Justice Ministry responded by issuing a written warning to the BPC, the second since Fall 2005, for allegedly interfering in the work of government agencies and officials. (Note: Under Belarusian law, a party can be liquidated after two official warnings, but not during an election campaign.) Precinct Commissions Also Not Favorable -------------- ¶4. (U) On February 2, the CEC and local authorities formed 6,586 precinct commissions with 74,104 members. The Belarusian National Youth Union, FTUB, and the Belarusian Women,s Union had 489 representatives on the commissions. Twenty-six percent of the commission members represented the manufacturing, trade, transportation and construction sectors, 16.2 the agriculture sector, 6.6 percent the health and social security sector, and 5.8 percent represented government agencies. Political parties had 122 representatives on the commissions, but 109 of those were from the pro-government Communist Party of Belarus. Ten members represented the Agrarian Party and one was from the National Party of Labor and Justice. ¶5. (SBU) Despite nominating 800 candidates, only one UCP member was selected, as well as only one of the 300 Belarusian Social Democratic Party &Gramada8 nominees. The Assembly of Pro-democratic NGOs nominated 1,100 people and the BPF 206, but neither organization saw one of their candidates selected. Ales Yanukevich, regional travel manager for Milinkevich and BPF party member told Poloff on February 7 that the territorial and precinct commission results indicated that the GOB would rig the presidential elections. Yanukevich noted that the precinct commissions represented an essential component of the elections because it is at that level where votes are counted. Without opposition representation, massive fraud could occur, giving Lukashenko his pre-determined, 75-80 percent of the vote. Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The lack of opposition representation in the commissions is yet another warning that Belarus does not intend to conduct free and fair elections. Numerous contacts have told Emboffs that the GOB will rely on the commissions to discretely deliver a convincing victory for Lukashenko. It is difficult to imagine that a significant number of election workers will ignore their mandate to rig the election results, considering that almost all of the commission workers are employees of the state. Thus, independent domestic and international observers will play a key role in identifying the kinds and degree of violations of international election standards, if the authorities will allow them unhindered access. Krol