OPPOSITION UNITED ON KOZULIN, DIVIDED ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 001273 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO SUBJECT: OPPOSITION UNITED ON KOZULIN, DIVIDED ON BOYCOTTING ELECTIONS REF: A. MINSK 1222 ¶B. VILNIUS 879 ¶C. MINSK 1252 Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Through a series of demonstrations on World Human Rights Day (December 10),the Belarusian democratic forces demonstrated unity in supporting hunger striking imprisoned former opposition candidate Aleksandr Kozulin. Opposition leaders also expressed gratitude for Congress' recent passage of the Belarus Democracy Reauthorization Act. However, the opposition remains divided on the issue of boycotting Belarus' January 14 local elections. Opposition party leaders Lebedko and Vyachorka told Ambassador that they flatly reject recent calls to withdraw from the elections, but civil society leaders in a separate meeting with Ambassador support a "well-timed" and coordinated boycott. End Summary. Opposition Unified in Supporting Kozulin -------------- ¶2. (C) On December 8, Ambassador met with two of the four leaders of the United Democratic Forces (UDF) opposition United Civic Party (UCP) Chair Anatoliy Lebedko and BPF Chair Vintsuk Vyachorka to discuss their positions on supporting Aleksandr Kozulin. Vyachorka recalled that Kozulin has pledged to end the hunger strike he began on October 20 when at least one G-8 member agreed to raise GOB human rights violations at the UN Security Council or when the UDF formally recognizes Belarusian Prime Minister Sergey Sidorskiy as the legitimate head of state (ref A). Vyachorka expressed concern that Kozulin was unable to understand the complexity of his demands after 50 days of fast and isolation in prison. Nevertheless, both leaders stressed their desire to persuade Kozulin to end his hunger strike. Lebedko noted the UDF would organize a street demonstration in support of Kozulin and other political prisoners on World Human Rights Day on December 10. The UDF also pledged to send a letter relaying Kozulin's de mands to Sidorskiy. ¶3. (U) A promised, the UDF organized a street rally on December 10 in October Square in downtown Minsk. The 50 or so participants formed a human chain and held up pictures of Kozulin and other political prisoners for several minutes before Belarusian special forces violently dispersed the crowd. Belarusian authorities briefly detained 25 demonstrators, including Lebedko and UCP activist Valentija PolevZ-KQ9 Before their release, police charged Lebedko and Polevikova with "minor hooliganism," which carries a penalty of up to 15 days in jail. Meanwhile, police arrested three opposition Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) youth wing members for allegedly distributing prohibited printed materials, including reports by UN Human Rights Council Special Rapporteur Adrian Severin, during a demonstration in support of Kozulin near BPF headquarters. Opposition Grateful for USG Support for Kozulin, BDRA -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Highlighting U.S. efforts with respect to issues relahing to Kozulin's demands, Ambassador becalled President Bush's statements at the recent NATO Summit in Riga and the passage of the U.S.-sponsored resolution on Belarus in the UN Third Committee. DCM aDded that the 109th Congress -- at the behest of Speaker Hastert, whom the UDF leaders met in September in Vilnius (ref B)-- had just approved the Belarus Democracy Reauthorization Act (BDRA) as one of its last actions. In response, Lebedko and Vyachorka expressed their deepest gratitude to the USG and the Embassy for these "concrete acts of support" to the opposition and the victims of GOB repression. Top UDF Leaders Oppose Election Boycott -------------- ¶5. (C) Despite the apparent unity on Kozulin and U.S. support for Belarus' pro-democracy forces, the opposition is split on participating in the January 14 local elections. When asked by Ambassador whether the United Democratic Forces (UDF) opposition coalition had decided to boycott the elections, Lebedko and Vyachorka abjured any plans for the parties to withdraw candidates. Vyachorka briefly seemed to MINSK 00001273 002 OF 002 equivocate by noting that withdrawing from districts with only one pro-government candidate could theoretically hurt the GOB by denying its candidates absolute majorities required in such districts under Belarusian election law. Nevertheless, Vyachorka predicted that his party would not likely pull out of the race and concurred with Lebedko that the opposition would lose an important opportunity to engage in dialogue with the Belarusian people if it boycotted the local elections. ¶6. (C) Lebedko conceded that many UDF opposition candidates in the regions, who were already under enormous pressure from authorities, were discussing the possibility of boycotting the elections after the opposition Belarusian Party of Communists (BPC) had endorsed a boycott at BPC's December 2 conference (ref C). However, Lebedko noted that he and other opposition leaders would make 25 trips to support local candidates outside Minsk and prevent "skepticism from prevailing" in the opposition camp. Lebedko pledged that he would try to convince opposition leaders at the UDF Political Council not to throw in the towel on the local elections. Vyachorka observed that much of the momentum for boycott among lower-level activists was generated by opposition Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Gramada" (BSDP) Chair Anatoliy Levkovich's December 4 recommendation that BSDP emulate the BPC boycott. (Note: Lebedko and Vyachorka separately told Poloff that they believe Levkovich's call for boycott was an emotional res ponse to Kozulin's ongoing hunger strike and may not be supported by all factions within BSDP.) Civil Society Leaders Support Boyc^tt -------------- ¶7. (C) During a December 7 meeting with Ambassador, leading civil society representatives strongly supported boycotting the race. Viktor Gorbachev, whose assoFiation of pro-democracy entrepreneurs has registered 80 opposition candidates in local races, stated that his association and other opposition groups were considering a withdrawal three to five days before the elections. Gorbachev justified such a@boycott on the grounds that participating in the election process would permit the oppositioN the chance to engage in its desired dialoguewith the Belarusian people but that withdrawing bebore the actual vote would highligPt the illegitimacy of the election results. Gorbachev praised the spirit of BPC and BSDP's@apparent withdrawal but criTicized opposition leaders for not coordinatinG their boycotts. ¶8. (C) During the same meeTing, Inna Kulei, wife of UDF leader and formeR presidential candidate Aleksandr MilinkevichQ echoed Gorbachev's support and logic for a last-minute withdrawal bi opposition candidates. When AmbAssadgr asied Kulei about the breadth of supportfor an election boycott, Kulei indicted that plans to bmycott would likely be backed by a mAjority of opposition leaders and actRvists. However, she stoppe$ shobt of articulating her husband's support for boycott. (Note: Although Milinkevich has "een actively collecting signatures for candidates throughout Belarus, he has been relatively silent on the issue ofa boqcott,) Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The oppositiol forces' unity on Cozulin is encouraging, but the deep divide over papticipation in the local elections is a setback for the democratic foraes. Thoqe candidates gho plan tm remain in the race will likely confuse voterq because of the ambiguity of the oppocition'sQposition on the elections. Ideally, opposition candidates gill reach a broad #onsensus on the importance of using the campaign period to m`ximize c/ntacds with voters, and agree to not withdraw from the electhons until after the campaign period ends. Stewart