LUKASHENKO FOCUSES ON ENERGY SECURITY DURING CIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 001244 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO FOCUSES ON ENERGY SECURITY DURING CIS SUMMIT REF: A. MOSCOW 12711 ¶B. MINSK 1234 ¶C. MINSK 1235 Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) On November 28, Minsk hosted the CIS Heads of State summit. Although the agenda called for discussions on CIS reform and other issues, few agreements were reached. Lukashenko used the summit to negotiate with Russian President Putin on gas prices and the fate of Belarus' pipeline Beltransgaz. He also searched for other energy sources and partners against Russia in a trilateral meeting with his Azerbaijani and Ukrainian counterparts. However, the Belarusian authorities' refusal to accredit Russian journalists covering the summit dominated media attention. End summary. A BIG EVENT FOR MINSK -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On November 28, 11 of the 12 CIS Heads Of State gathered in Minsk for a summit at the Belarusian National Library. The agenda included 27 topics of discussion, including a report on the CIS's efficiency and development, organizational reform, increased cooperation in the economic and humanitarian spheres, security, illegal immigration, and border demarcation. The CIS leaders made little progress on these issues and spent most of their time in bilateral talks (ref A). Lukashenko's Priority: Energy Security -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Lukashenko held bilateral talks with several CIS leaders, but the most important meetings were those with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. In a private meeting, Putin and Lukashenko discussed Russian energy imports, particularly gas price increases and negotiations over the fate of Belarus' pipeline Beltransgaz. Details of the meeting were not publicized, but Putin told reporters afterwards that he stressed Russia would switch to market relations with all partners - no exceptions (including Belarus). However, gas prices for Belarus would be partly capitalized into the value of Beltransgaz, which would be restructured into a Gazprom-Beltransgaz joint enterprise on a "fifty-fifty" basis (ref B). Neither Lukashenko nor his state media have confirmed Putin's statements. ¶4. (C) Another important meeting for Lukashenko was his trilateral talk with Ukrainian and Azerbaijani counterparts Yushchenko and Aliyev on energy cooperation. According to official Belarusian news sources, Yushchenko suggested that Azerbaijan supply oil to Belarusian refineries via Ukrainian pipelines while Belarus and Ukraine coordinate rates for Russian gas transit through their territories. (Comment: This was likely a Lukashenko idea due to its similarities to suggestions he made to Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych on November 24. He also suggested to Yanukovych that Ukraine and Belarus form a political and economic union (ref C). End comment.) CIS Outlived Its Usefulness -------------- ¶5. (C) On November 30, political analyst Valeriy Karbolevich criticized the CIS as a dead organization that only existed to support nostalgia for the USSR, support and legitimize totalitarian regimes, and provide a venue for bilateral talks between leaders. Karbolevich told Poloff that organizations such as the CIS, Collective Security Treaty Organizations (CSTO) and European Economic Community (EurAsEc) provided little benefit to Belarusians. According to Karbolevich, Lukashenko highlights Belarus' leadership role in these organizations to show Belarusians that their country and president are not isolated from the world, but "important" players in the international arena. CIS Takes Back Seat to Journalist Scandal -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Belarus' refusal to accredit several Russian journalists and the Russian response took much of the media attention away from the CIS summit. On November 28, MINSK 00001244 002 OF 002 Belarusian authorities denied accreditation to correspondent Natalaya Galimova and photographer Aleksandr Astafyev of the "Moscovskiy Komsomolets" and photographer Dmitriy Azarov of "Kommersant" because, according to Lukashenko spokesman Pavel Lyogkiy, the publications had "carried information and photographs that were of an openly insulting nature for us." The barring of the Russian journalists came on the heels of the CIS summit of heads of government (PMs) on November 24 in Minsk when Belarusian authorities prohibited several Russian journalists from attending the final news conference. ¶7. (C) In response, Russian reporters left the CIS summit before the final news conference, angering Belarusian officials who considered the move "disrespectful." According to Karbolevich, the Russian journalists were part of Putin's press troupe. Therefore, the Belarusian authorities' refusal to accredit them was an insult to the Kremlin. During a press briefing at the Minsk airport before leaving for Moscow, Putin told reporters that Lukashenko had called the Russian journalist incident a "technical misunderstanding," but Putin's press office responded in kind by barring Belarusian media correspondents and TV crews from attending the news briefing. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The state media's headlines on November 29 captured the fruitlessness of the summit: "There Is Potential, That Is The Main Thing!" Lukashenko reported little about the bilateral talks and the state press glossed over the issues discussed. The lack of details from the Belarusian side on Lukashenko's meeting with Putin is becoming a tell-tale sign that Lukashenko either failed to reach an agreement with Russia on gas prices and the fate of Beltransgaz, or made concessions to Putin but is not ready to inform the public. The journalist scandal sparked some interference from both the Russian and Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and was another indication of the growing friction between Lukashenko and Russia. Stewart