MINSK FORUM: BITING THE HAND THAT PATS YOUR BACK?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 001220 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL BO SUBJECT: MINSK FORUM: BITING THE HAND THAT PATS YOUR BACK? REF: MINSK 1188 MINSK 00001220 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) November 9-11 witnessed the Minsk Fgrum, an annual German-sponsored conference designed to be a platform for open dialogue. The GOB's denial of visas to at least eight would-be attendees overshadowed the substance of the conference. The row highlights the hazards of attempting even seemingly benign means of cooperation with elements of the GOB. End summary. Visas: Would-be Participants Don't Leave Home without Them -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) T(ree European MPs, three German MPs, and a journalist from Deutsche Welle were denied viss to attend the Minsk Forum, a German-sponsord conference designed t foster the growth ofBelarusian civil societ by providing a platfrm for open dialogue oneconomic, political andsocial topics. The GB MFA told the German Ebassy the European MPs were denied because th Minsk Forum is a bilatral event. The GermanMPs were denied based o reciprocity, as German participates in the isa ban against those sbverting democracy inBelarus. A Belarusian ournalist told PoloffDeutsche Welle's journalist was likely excludedin order to prevent cverage of the event abrad. Opening Remarks:It's Not a Pleasure to ork with You -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Against that bckdrop, rEmarks at the opening ceremony attened by Ambassador were anything but pleasantries. German Minsk Forum chairman Rainer Lindner referred to former presidential contender and current political prisoner Aleksandr Kozulin, the European Parliament's decision to award Aleksandr Milinkevich the Sakharov human rights prize, and to the GOB denial of visas to the European MPs. German MP and CDU Party Secretary General Ronald Pofalla spok even more bluntly, noting t(at all dictatorsips must come to an end ¶4. (SBU) This was aparently too much for te GOB's senior represntative, Chairman of th Belarusian House of epresentatives VladimirKonoplev. Konoplev hadmade earlier welcomin remarks, but he exercied a right of reply to emotionally make the Blarusian equivalent resonse of "people in glss houses shouddn't thrw stones." He said the West should not critiize Belarus given that he country is secure nd safe, whereas Franceand Germany suffer from riots, crime and discimination against minorties. He criticized Germa.y for its role in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yugoslavia. He continued that Europeans should hardly complain that the GOB denied a few visas when the EU has over 30 Belarusians on its visa ban list. He concluded that Belarus will chart its own course and does not need to be told what to do by others. Political Disagreements Continue after Day One -------------- - ¶5. (SBU) At the session the next day on foreign and security policy, speakers representing several EU countries and the European Commission stated Europe would continue to support political reform in Belarus. The Belarusian MFA representative, Andrey Bushilo from the Department for European Integration, gave a fire-and-brims4one speech claiming the EU was approaching Belarus incorrectly. He said the EU and Belarus were mutually dependent on trade, and the rem/val of GSP (reftel) wou,d merely hurt the average ~~~~Belarusian and European. Bushil suggested Belarus and the EU increase their political cooperation tomatch their economic Jlations. Economy: Bsiness Climate Mediocre@Risks in Energy Sector -------------- Z -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU@At the session on the conomy, the representatle from the Belartsia Ministry of Economics Bs a no show.Q Busines representatives gave aZediocre assessment of he climate for entrepeneurs. Klaus Baier ofhhe the German Business Club (a rough equivalent to AmCham) said in aLew survey of over 300 local companies, fifty percent of respondents gave the economic climate a satisfactory rating, but thirty percent still described it as poor. Businesses reported problems with registration, regulations, customs and MINSK 00001220 002.2 OF 002 arbitrary government interference. ¶7. (SBU) Margarita Balmaceda of Harvard University explained that fast economic growth based on access to Russian energy is over even if Russia does not sharply raise export prices to Belarus. Russia will begin raising prices in its domestic markets, which would mean less of an advantage for Belarusian companies as well as for Russian ones. Furthermore, world energy prices will not likely grow so quickly in the near term. Irina Tochitskaya from the In3titute for Privatization and Management presented a model predicting a rise in gas prices to USD 200 per thousand cubic meters could knock 14 percent off of Belarus's GDP within five to seven years. Comment: GOB Hardliners Fear Broader Forum Goals -------------- --- ¶8. (C) Germany used similar forums after World War II in France and again after the collapse of Communism in former Warsaw Pact countries to build international trust. Although the GOB certainly wants expanded economic relations with Germany, it would also like for its public to continue to mistrust Germany when it comes to topics like democracy. The GOB's propaganda that it pemains open to cooperation with the West "on the basis of mutual respect" makes it impolitic for Belarus to simply deny permission for the forum to continue. Instead, by its hardnosed tactics, the GOB may hope to force Germany into either abandoning plans to continue the Forum, or to water down its content. Stewart