MINSK FORUM: BITING THE HAND THAT PATS YOUR BACK?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 001220

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL BO
SUBJECT: MINSK FORUM: BITING THE HAND THAT PATS YOUR BACK?

REF: MINSK 1188

MINSK 00001220 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
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1. (C) November 9-11 witnessed the Minsk Fgrum, an annual
German-sponsored conference designed to be a platform for
open dialogue. The GOB's denial of visas to at least eight
would-be attendees overshadowed the substance of the
conference. The row highlights the hazards of attempting
even seemingly benign means of cooperation with elements of
the GOB. End summary.

Visas: Would-be Participants Don't Leave Home without Them
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2. (SBU) T(ree European MPs, three German MPs, and a
journalist from Deutsche Welle were denied viss to attend
the Minsk Forum, a German-sponsord conference designed t
foster the growth ofBelarusian civil societ by providing a
platfrm for open dialogue oneconomic, political andsocial
topics. The GB MFA told the German Ebassy the European MPs
were denied because th Minsk Forum is a bilatral event.
The GermanMPs were denied based o reciprocity, as German
participates in the isa ban against those sbverting
democracy inBelarus. A Belarusian ournalist told PoloffDeutsche Welle's journalist was likely excludedin order to
prevent cverage of the event abrad.

Opening Remarks:It's Not a Pleasure to ork with You
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3. (SBU) Against that bckdrop, rEmarks at the opening
ceremony attened by Ambassador were anything but
pleasantries. German Minsk Forum chairman Rainer Lindner
referred to former presidential contender and current
political prisoner Aleksandr Kozulin, the European
Parliament's decision to award Aleksandr Milinkevich the
Sakharov human rights prize, and to the GOB denial of visas
to the European MPs. German MP and CDU Party Secretary
General Ronald Pofalla spok even more bluntly, noting t(at
all dictatorsips must come to an end


4. (SBU) This was aparently too much for te GOB's senior
represntative, Chairman of th Belarusian House of
epresentatives VladimirKonoplev. Konoplev hadmade earlier
welcomin remarks, but he exercied a right of reply to
emotionally make the Blarusian equivalent resonse of
"people in glss houses shouddn't thrw stones." He said the
West should not critiize Belarus given that he country is
secure nd safe, whereas Franceand Germany suffer from
riots, crime and discimination against minorties. He
criticized Germa.y for its role in Iraq, Afghanistan, and
Yugoslavia. He continued that Europeans should hardly
complain that the GOB denied a few visas when the EU has over
30 Belarusians on its visa ban list. He concluded that
Belarus will chart its own course and does not need to be
told what to do by others.

Political Disagreements Continue after Day One
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5. (SBU) At the session the next day on foreign and security
policy, speakers representing several EU countries and the
European Commission stated Europe would continue to support
political reform in Belarus. The Belarusian MFA
representative, Andrey Bushilo from the Department for
European Integration, gave a fire-and-brims4one speech
claiming the EU was approaching Belarus incorrectly. He said
the EU and Belarus were mutually dependent on trade, and the
rem/val of GSP (reftel) wou,d merely hurt the average
~~~~Belarusian and European. Bushil suggested Belarus and the
EU increase their political cooperation tomatch their
economic Jlations.

Economy: Bsiness Climate Mediocre@Risks in Energy Sector
-------------- Z -------------- --------------


6. (SBU@At the session on the conomy, the representatle
from the Belartsia Ministry of Economics Bs a no show.Q
Busines representatives gave aZediocre assessment of he
climate for entrepeneurs. Klaus Baier ofhhe the German
Business Club (a rough equivalent to AmCham) said in aLew
survey of over 300 local companies, fifty percent of
respondents gave the economic climate a satisfactory rating,
but thirty percent still described it as poor. Businesses
reported problems with registration, regulations, customs and

MINSK 00001220 002.2 OF 002


arbitrary government interference.


7. (SBU) Margarita Balmaceda of Harvard University explained
that fast economic growth based on access to Russian energy
is over even if Russia does not sharply raise export prices
to Belarus. Russia will begin raising prices in its domestic
markets, which would mean less of an advantage for Belarusian
companies as well as for Russian ones. Furthermore, world
energy prices will not likely grow so quickly in the near
term. Irina Tochitskaya from the In3titute for
Privatization and Management presented a model predicting a
rise in gas prices to USD 200 per thousand cubic meters could
knock 14 percent off of Belarus's GDP within five to seven
years.

Comment: GOB Hardliners Fear Broader Forum Goals
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8. (C) Germany used similar forums after World War II in
France and again after the collapse of Communism in former
Warsaw Pact countries to build international trust. Although
the GOB certainly wants expanded economic relations with
Germany, it would also like for its public to continue to
mistrust Germany when it comes to topics like democracy. The
GOB's propaganda that it pemains open to cooperation with the
West "on the basis of mutual respect" makes it impolitic for
Belarus to simply deny permission for the forum to continue.
Instead, by its hardnosed tactics, the GOB may hope to force
Germany into either abandoning plans to continue the Forum,
or to water down its content.
Stewart