EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - OCTOBER 31,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001159 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON KTDB EPET BO SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - OCTOBER 31, 2006 ¶1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy Minsk. TABLE OF CONTENTS CIVIL SOCIETY -------------- - Milinkevich Wins European Parliament's Sakharov Award (para. 2) - Skrebets Will Be Released in November (para. 3) - Activist Arrested Near Presidential Administration (para. 4) ELECTIONS -------------- - Candidates in Large Cities Get Radio Spots (para. 5) - District Election Commissions Formed by October 30 (para. 6) - Opposition Appeals Exclusion from Executive Committee para. 7) INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS -------------- - Interagency Committee on Border Cooperation in Minsk (para. 8) TRADE AND INVESTMENT -------------- - Belarus' Food Imports Up 21.9 Percent (para. 9) - Iran Considers Opening Bank in Belarus (para. 10) DOMESTIC ECONOMICS -------------- - One Quarter of Industrial Companies in Red (para. 11) - Average pay in Belarus Up 7.9 percent in September (para. 12) - Lukashenko Raises Pensions by Nine Percent (para. 13) - QUOTE OF THE WEEK (para. 14) -------------- Civil Society -------------- ¶2. Milinkevich Wins European Parliament's Sakharov Award On October 26, independent Belarusian media reported that opposition leader and former presidential candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich won the European Parliament's Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought. The European Parliament (EP) will present the award to Milinkevich during a formal plenary session on December ¶13. The EP's Delegation for Relations with Belarus nominated Milinkevich on the grounds that he "succeeded in uniting the opposition forces and expressing the desire of a large part of Belarus society to restore democratic rights and political freedoms in their country." In December 1985, the EP created the prize, named after Soviet dissident Andrei Sakharov, to honor individuals or organizations that dedicated their lives to the defense of human rights. The Belarusian Association of Journalists won the prize in ¶2004. ¶3. Skrebets will Be Released in November On October 27, independent media reported that opposition politician Sergei Skrebets will be released from prison on November ¶15. According to Skrebets' brother Aleksandr, authorities agreed to cut Skrebets' prison term by one year under Belarus' amnesty law because he has already served more than half of his term and has a good conduct record. On February 14, the Supreme Court found Skrebets guilty of fraudulent bank loans and sentenced him to two years and six months in a minimum-security correctional facility. Skrebets denounced the conviction as politically motivated. ¶4. Activist Arrested Near Presidential Administration On October 26, Borisov-based opposition Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Gramada" (BSDP) activist Ales Abramovich was arrested in Minsk after he unfurled a sign reading "Freedom to Kozulin and other political prisoners!" near the Presidential Administration building. Authorities also apprehended independent journalists Galina Abakunchik of the Belarusian Service of RFE/RL and Kseniya Alimova of the private weekly Belorusy i Rynok. Authorities released the reporters after two hours without charges. Abramovich was charged with holding an unsanctioned demonstration and taken to the Leninsky District Court for trial. -------------- Elections -------------- ¶5. Candidates in Large Cities Get Radio Spots MINSK 00001159 002 OF 003 On October 26, the Belarusian Central Election Commission announced that candidates running in larger cities and districts during Belarus' January 14 local elections would be allowed five-minute pre-recorded appearances on local radio networks but refused air time to candidates running in smaller and rural constituencies. CEC Head Lidiya Yermoshina noted that addresses calling for war or for the overthrow of the constitutional order, inciting social, religious, ethnic and race hatred, as well as defaming government officials and other candidates would not be broadcast. The CEC also adopted a directive that allows persons serving "arrest" sentences to vote. A total of 1,587 people were serving sentences in jail as of September 1. ¶6. District Election Commissions Formed by October 30 On October 25, CEC Secretary Nikolay Lozovik announced that the formation of the district election commissions for the January 14 local elections will be completed by October 30. According to Lozovik, only political parties, "workers' collectives" having no fewer than 30 members, and individuals who have collected no fewer than 30 voter signatures will have the right to nominate candidates to the 369 district election commissions throughout Belarus. The deadline for nominations to district commissions was October 27. Formation of territorial election commissions was completed on October 20. ¶7. Opposition Party Appeals Exclusion from Executive Committee On October 25, opposition Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Gramada" (BSDP) Brest-regional chapter leader Igor Maslovskiy sent an appeal to the Brest Regional Executive Committee asking why BSDP nominee and former Brest city election commission member Pavel Kornev was not included in the current regional election commission. Another BSDP nominee, Vitaly Nagorny, was also denied membership. Other opposition parties recently reported that the CEC has also not accepted any of their nominations for the election commissions. -------------- International Relations -------------- ¶8. Inter-Agency Committee on Border Cooperation in Minsk On October 26, the Inter-Agency Committee on Border Cooperation with Neighboring Countries met at Belarus' Foreign Ministry to discuss cross-border cooperation among Poland, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, and Belarus and receive a report on the European Neighborhood and Partnership Instrument (ENPI),which will replace the Technical Assistance for the CIS (TACIS) program from 2007 to ¶2013. The meeting included representatives of all six regional executive committees, district executive committees, the TACIS National Coordination Unit, the State Border Troops Committee, the State Customs Committee, and the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Economics, Transport, Finance, Energy, and Environment. -------------- Trade and Investment -------------- ¶9. Belarus' Food Imports Up 21.9 Percent On October 24, the Belarusian Ministry of Statistics and Analysis reported that Belarus' food imports increased 21.9 percent on the year in January-August to USD 914.1 million. Imports from Russia totaled USD 392.1 million, up 18.1 percent. Belarus mainly imported ready-to-eat foods, worth USD 677 million, from January to August, an increase of 18.5 percent on the year. The share of foods in Belarus' total exports reached 7.2 percent, down 0.8 percentage point on the year. Belarusian companies' food exports rose 15.8 percent on the year in January-August to USD 938 million. Exports of food to Russia increased 17 percent on the year to USD 709.4 million. ¶10. Iran Considers Opening Bank in Belarus On October 23, during an official visit to Tehran, Belarus' Foreign Minister Sergei Martynov and Iran's Commerce Minister Masud Mir- Kazemi discussed the possibility of opening a bank in Minsk with 100 percent Iranian capital. Martynov also met with the chairman of Iran's Chamber of Commerce. Martynov and senior Iranian officials agreed to establish a joint business cooperation council, which will coordinate efforts of the Belarusian and Iranian chambers of commerce and provide assistance to businesses. -------------- Domestic Economy -------------- MINSK 00001159 003 OF 003 ¶11. One Quarter of Industrial Companies in Red On October 23, the Ministry of Statistics and Analysis projected that many as 582 industrial enterprises, or 25.3 percent of all industrial enterprises, operated at a loss in the first eight months of 2006. Their losses reportedly totaled USD 109 million. The number of unprofitable enterprises amounted to 40.6 percent of firms in light industry, 27 percent in the fuel industry, 26 percent in food processing, 25.3 percent in the chemical and petrochemical industries, 24.3 percent in the timber, woodworking and paper industries, 20.2 percent in the machine building and metalworking industries, 20.1 percent in the construction materials industry, and 4.8 percent in the ferrous metal industry. ¶13. Average Pay in Belarus Up 7.9 percent in September On October 24, citing a recent GOB analysis, independent media reported that inflation-adjusted average pay in September was 7.9 percent higher than in December 2005. Consumer prices rose by 3.1 percent during that same period. Real average pay rose by 19.7 percent in Belarus in 2005. The dollar equivalent of the average before-tax monthly pay went up from USD 261 in December 2005 to USD 283 in September. ¶14. Lukashenko Raises Pensions by Nine Percent On October 20, independent media reported that President Lukashenko issued a presidential edict raising retirement pensions by nine percent as of November 1. The average retirement pension will amount to USD 133, up from USD 121. Lukashenko has raised retirement pensions twice this year. Meanwhile, the GOB increased the minimum pension rate and social pensions three times. Taken together, these measures have increased the average pension 17.8 percent since January 1. -------------- Quote of the Week -------------- ¶15. During an interview with Deutsche Welle, Belarusian MP Sergey Kostyan offered the following tortured insight regarding Belarus' potential need for nuclear weapons: "If we were besieged, like Cuba, Iran, the Democratic People`s Republic of Korea, we would have to protect ourselves. America has constructed two military bases along our borders. The Poles are going to sell more land for one more to be constructed. What should we do? As for nuclear weapons, this question would never be brought up in the leading circles of our country. Heaven forbid, and I do not want that. But, life is so unpredictable, and sometimes it makes us do the things we do not want." Stewart