COALITION LEADERS SETTLE ON HOLDING SECOND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 001157

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
DEPT QLSO FOR INR
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO
SUBJECT: COALITION LEADERS SETTLE ON HOLDING SECOND
DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS

REF: MINSK 1141

Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) The United Democratic Forces (UDF) Political Council
recently agreed to convene a second congress of democratic
forces on March 25, 2007. The dec)sion was included in th%
Political CounciX's approved "Agreement on the UDF Political
Campaign" that also called for the creation of a Political
Council Chair and the restructuring of the UDF hierarchy.
Also approved was a manifesto "The Path to Freedom" - the
coalition's united message. The UDF demonstrated more
solidarity in approving the documents, but senior coalition
leaders remind us that the true gauge of cooperation is
concrete action. End summary.

Congress To Convene, Political Council Chair Created
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2. (C) On October 23, Belarusian National Front (BNF) Deputy
Chairman Viktor Ivashkevich gave Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff a
copy of the "Agreement on the UDF Political Campaign" the
Political Council (PC) approved on October 20. The most
significant concept in the agreement was the decision to
convene the second congress of democratic forces on March 25,
2007, ending months of stalemate within the UDF. Anoth%r
issue resolved in the document was the decision to create an
executive position with limi4ed powers, the PC Chair, who
will appoint the heads of the UDF executive body
("Secretariat") and the UDF shadow go6ernment committee
("National Committee"). Coalition leader Aleksandr
Milinkevich had long opposed a second congress unless an
executive leadership position with broad powers was
established (reftel). Leader of the Belarusian Communist
Party Sergey Kalyakin opposed the idea, claiming a
restructured PC would suffice. According to Ivashkevich, the
PC eventually found a middle ground and created the PC
Chairmanship, but not a general UDF leader with broad powers
as Milinkevich had hoped.

PC Restructured in New UDF Hierarchy
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3. (SBU) The agreement stipulates that the congress is the
supreme representative body of the UDF that approves
coalition strategies and policies. The second in authority
is the Political Council, which the congress will
restructure. Delegates at the congress will gather in their
respective factions (political parties or NGOs) and appoint
their representatives to the PC. Factions are allowed one PC
representative for every 30 delegates.


4. (SBU) The congress will also establish the Presidium, the
third-tier authority that resembles the current PC in
composition. Faction leaders and the PC Chair will
automatically become members of the Presidium and other
members will be chosen by the congress. The Presidium will
coordi.ate UDF operations by consencus. If no consensus is
reached, the issue will be referred to t(e PC, where it will
be resolved by a simple majority.

The Price of a Delegate to the Congress - 300 Signatures
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5. (SBU) According to the agreement, delegates to the
congress would be those campaigning for local council seats
or places on territorial electoral committees who collect
three hundred signatures of support. NGO and civil society
activists and volunteers not involved in the elections must
also gather 300 signatures, but in support of the UDF's
manifesto "The Path to Freedom" (see para 7). Individuals
with fewer than 300 signatures could form a group, combine
each other's signatures together to reach the threshold, and
select a delegate from among them.

Counting Commissions: A Mirror of the CEC
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6. (SBU) According to the agreement, the UDF is to establish
a Central Counting Commission (CCC) during local council
elections. The CCC, formed by the Political Council to
mirror the GOB's Central Election Commission (CEC),is to
ensure local council candidates and their initiative groups

MINSK 00001157 002 OF 002


are adhering to CEC campaign rules, help individuals register
as candidates to local councils, resolve internal disputes,
cancel UDF registration of candidates committing violations,
and verify signature lists.

The "United" Coalition Message
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7. (C) Ivashkevich also gave Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff the
UDF manifesto "The Path to Freedom," the coalition's united
message originally created by the Belarusian Assembly of
Democratic NGO's during the 2006 presidential campaign. The
document states the UDF's goals to destroy the GOB-created
farce of a "flourishing" Belarus, remind the authorities of
their illegal hold on power, help people overcome fear, and
convince Belarusians that alternative forces capable of
bringing change and defending Belarus' independence exist.
The manifesto also demands the GOB free political prisoners,
promote independent media, release Belarusians from the
restrictive contract system, be truthful about
Belarusian-Russian relations, promote free elections, and
allow citizens to freely express their opinions.


8. (C) All UDF members and opposition candidates in the local
council elections are to adopt the manifesto and gather
signatures of support. According to the document's fine
print, support for UDF-backed local council candidates is
equivalent to supporting the manifesto. Affiliated NGOs,
civil society groups, and other pro-democracy individuals not
involved in the local council elections would also promote
the manifesto and gather signatures.

Regional Councils to Coordinate Election Campaigns
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9. (SBU) Aside from the two documents, the PC also agreed to
form regional councils, made up of regional political party
leaders, to coordinate the campaigns of UDF candidates. BNF
Deputy Chairmen Aleksey Yanukevich explained to Poloff
October 26 that the councils would distribute campaign
materials to candidates, inform them on
decisions/instructions from the UDF, and provide needed
material and moral support. Yanukevich, however, could not
predict when the councils would be formed.

"For Freedom" Movement Put On Hold
--------------


10. (C) Ivashkevich informed Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff that
Milinkevich announced at the Political Council that the start
of his "For Freedom" movement would be postponed until after
the local elections, citing lack of preparation. (Note: Only
a couple hours before the Political Council meeting,
Milinkevich claimed to Ambassador that his movement was ready
to begin work and would likely nominate candidates for the
local council elections (reftel). End note.) Ivashkevich
viewed the movement as Milinkevich's push to create his own
political party, castigating it as a "naked idea" lacking a
planning committee and direction. He noted that BNF leader
Vintsuk Vyachorka was holding negotiations with Milinkevich
about the movement, but the former was remaining cautious of
Milinkevich's intentions in collaborating with the BNF.

Comment
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11. (C) After months of stagnation and infighting within the
UDF, the opposition leaders have made significant progress on
the issue of holding another democratic congress. However,
Ivashkevich and others have cautioned that the agreements are
simply on paper; in reality, no one can be forced to comply.
Milinkevich finally received what he wanted out of the deal -
a de jure leadership position - although the Political
Council made it clear that the position's powers would be
less than what he had hoped. The UDF further demonstrated
that some level of solidarity still existed within the
coalition by successfully establishing a unified message that
many disgruntled activists had been waiting for for six
months. However, the real test for the UDF is to see how
quickly and efficiently they can act.
Stewart