INDEPENDENT POLLING: MILINKEVICH SUPPORT RATINGS DECLINE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MINSK 001117 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI ECON BO SUBJECT: INDEPENDENT POLLING: MILINKEVICH SUPPORT RATINGS DECLINE Ref: MINSK 1055 MINSK 00001117 001.2 OF 004 ¶1. Summary: Independent Belarusian pollster Manaev September 25 gave Poloff results of his fifth post election survey conducted in August. Opposition coalition presidential candidate Milinkevich's support rating dropped 8.8 points since March to 11.6%, whereas President Lukashenko's support rating remained at 55%. The majority of respondents (63.5%) accept Lukashenko's decisions as president and claim he can be trusted. Sixty-six percent of respondents believe providing material support/welfare to the people was more important than implementing democracy and 56% believe a strong leader provided more to citizens than good laws. Fifty-five percent of respondents admitted they were often or always afraid to express their political opinions in public. Most respondents (79%) do not want a union with Russia at the expense of Belarus' independence, although many would sacrifice Belarus' independence for an improved economy. End summary. ¶2. Independent polling service (IISEPS) director Oleg Manaev presented Poloff the fifth of six opinion polls conducted on August 15-25 (Ref A). IISEPS interviewed 1515 people in the August polling. The margin of error was 3%. Milinkevich Ratings Decline -------------- ¶3. IISEPS' survey results continue to indicate that Lukashenko received the majority of votes in the March presidential elections and Milinkevich received approximately 20%. However, fewer respondents today would vote for Milinkevich as president than they did during the March elections. "Whom did you vote for in the 2006 presidential elections?" March April June August Lukashenko 64.9(%) 63.1 61.9 55.5 Milinkevich 21.4 18.8 19.9 20.4 Kozulin 5.0 7.3 5.9 4.8 Gaidukevich 2.2 5.2 3.3 3.0 "If elections were tomorrow, whom would you vote for?" April June August Lukashenko 60.3(%) 54.3 55.5 Milinkevich 18.4 13.6 11.6 Kozulin 3.7 3.7 3.2 Lukashenko Leadership Satisfactory -------------- ¶4. Approximately 50% of the respondents voted for the 2004 referendum allowing Lukashenko unlimited terms as President. When asked why they would repeatedly vote for Lukashenko, the respondents answered as follows [Respondents allowed to choose three responses]: He fulfills his duties and not necessary to replace him 29.8(%) No other suitable candidate 22.4 He worries about people like me 20.6 Afraid that it would be worse with another president 17.9 He is moving toward a union with Russia 12.0 I personally like him 9.9 He defends us from the West 8.1 Those who would not vote for Lukashenko (23.8%) answered as follows [Respondents allowed to choose three responses]: He has already demonstrated all that he is capable of 13.2(%) I am tired of him 11.8 His participation in the elections was illegal 11.5 He is leading Belarus to disaster 10.5 He had a fallout with the West 9.4 He is not fulfilling his promises 8.8 He exhausted his possibilities 7.8 There are more suitable politicians 7.0 ¶5. Sixty percent of respondents trust Lukashenko. When asked why, respondents answered: He successfully solves the country's problems 31.6(%) No one else can solve the country's problems 16.4 He will hopefully solve Belarus' future problems 13.2 Other reasons 1.7 "Do you accept the actions of." MINSK 00001117 002.2 OF 004 "Lukashenko" "the government" Yes, without question 29.5(%) 21.0 Yes, more or less 34.0 34.8 No, more or less 18.3 20.9 No, without question 13.9 16.1 "In your opinion, what qualities are characteristic of the current Belarusian government (respondents can choose more than one answer)?" Close to the people 30.4(%) Bureaucratic 25.5 Strong and firm 23.6 Legitimate 23.1 Criminal and corrupt 20.3 Honest and open 16.9 Effective 13.3 Unprofessional 12.8 Educated, intellectual 11.8 Distant from people 10.8 Competent 9.9 ¶6. Forty-nine percent of those polled believe Lukashenko's and his government's arbitrary rule has decreased over the years, but many recognize that they rely heavily on security forces to preserve their rule. "In your opinion, whom does Lukashenko rely on [Note: respondents allowed to choose three responses]?" Military, Ministry of the Interior, BGKB 48.6(%) Pensioners 41.4 Presidential "vertical" 37.0 Simple people 34.2 Villagers 30.0 Government officials 20.5 Democracy Takes Backseat to a Strong Leader -------------- ¶7. Sixty-six percent of those polled agree that material welfare should be provided to citizens before Belarus should even consider democracy. In addition, 56.2% of respondents believe a strong leader can give the country more than can good laws. "In your opinion, what is more necessary for the country [Note: respondents allowed to choose three responses]?" Strong government 47.2(%) Strong leader 42.4 Cultural/spiritual revival 26.7 Revival of national traditions 22.5 Democracy 20.5 Political Freedom -------------- ¶8. The majority of respondents (55.5%) knew that former presidential candidate Kozulin was sentenced to 5.5 years in prison. However, the respondent's reactions to Kozulin's conviction were divided: "[If you knew of Kozulin's conviction], how do you feel about the court's decision?" The verdict was not just 26.6(%) The verdict was just 24.3 It does not concern me 22.4 "According to the court, Kozulin was convicted of malicious hooliganism and organizing and participating in group actions that violated public order. In your opinion, were the court's reasons for convicting Kozulin sincere?" Kozulin's conviction was politically motivated 41.6(%) I agree with the court's reasons 33.0 "What moves should be made against people and groups whose opinions and activities you do not agree with?" Allow them to carry out activities within the law 51.8(%) Ban their activities 26.6 Limit public actions and meetings 13.8 Limit their access to the media 13.0 MINSK 00001117 003.2 OF 004 "Are you ready to openly express your political opinions?" I am never afraid 41.9(%) Sometimes afraid 35.5 Often afraid 22.0 Russian Union -------------- ¶9. According to IISEPS, 45.4% of respondents would vote for the Belarus-Russian Union if a referendum were held today and 34% would not. The vast majority of those polled (78.5%) are not in favor of Belarus' integration with Russia should it mean the loss of Belarus' independence or sovereignty. Although Belarusians prefer other relationships with Russia than full integration, many would make concessions if it meant economic development. "What relationship between Belarus and Russia do you prefer?" Neighborly relations of two independent governments 41.4(%) Union of independent governments 41.5 Formation of one government 14.8 "If a referendum is held on the Constitution act of the Belarus- Russian Union, how would you vote?" For 44.4(%) Against 27.8 "What is more important - improving Belarus' economic situation or preserving Belarus' independence?" Improving economic situation 48.5(%) Preserving independence 41.9 "If the referendum results called for Belarus to become part of the Russian Federation, how would you respond?" Agree with the results because they cannot be changed 35.8(%) Protest/demonstrate to change the results 8.8 Move to another country 3.4 Ready to defend Belarus' independence with weapons 2.4 No answer 49.6 "If a presidential position was created for Russia and Belarus, who would you vote for?" Lukashenko 43.5(%) Putin 22.5 Milinkevich 1.5 "If there was a referendum tomorrow on the integration of Belarus into the EU, how would you vote?" Against 41.3(%) For 36.5 ¶10. Standard of Living -------------- "In your opinion, how has Belarus' economic situation changed in the last year?" Improved 37.5(%) Not changed 45.8 Worsened 12.5 "How will Belarus' social-economic situation change in the coming years?" Improve 40.8(%) No change 36.2 Worsen 12.0 "In your opinion, how do people live in neighboring countries [compared to Belarusians]?" Better Same Worse -------------- -------------- -------------- Latvia 34.1(%) 23.3 21.9 Lithuania 33.1 25.0 21.9 Poland 46.2 22.5 14.9 Russia 21.1 44.6 23.6 Ukraine 8.4 29.3 50.6 ¶11. Information MINSK 00001117 004.3 OF 004 -------------- "How often do you watch the following TV channels?" Everyday Often Rarely -------------- -------------- -------------- ONT (BYR) 50.9(%) 32.1 13.1 RTR (Rus) 37.5 42.6 16.7 NTV (Rus) 35.0 39.0 21.3 ORT (Rus) 30.0 35.7 30.3 BT (BYR) 37.5 40.2 16.4 Cable TV 18.9 27.5 40.6 Local TV 13.7 42.1 34.2 TV-6 (Rus) 8.7 33.0 47.8 Satellite TV 8.7 25.9 53.5 "How often do you listen to the following radio stations?" FM (BE, Alfa, Radio-roks) 27.6(%) 27.1 40.9 GOB radio 24.1 18.3 49.1 Local radio 12.2 14.6 63.8 Russian radio 5.6 14.4 67.8 Radio Liberty (Belarusian) 4.3 11.4 73.7 (Russian) 2.2 9.9 77.3 Western radio 2.5 8.1 78.3 "Do you use the internet?" Everyday 5.8(%) Several times per week 8.0 Several times per month 9.0 Several times per year 4.5 No 66.4 "If you use the internet, where do you have access?" At work/school 8.5(%) Home 13.1 Internet caf 5.1 "What information source do you trust the most?" TV 52.6(%) Press 31.7 Personal contacts 27.1 Radio 24.5 Internet 10.8 Comment -------------- ¶12. The GOB's active propaganda campaign and blockade of independent media is successfully convincing Belarusians that Lukashenko's strong hand and government can provide a better life than democracy. However, the respondents' responses to many of the polling questions, including their feeling of powerlessness in reversing referendum results, indicate that they understand the Belarusian "paradise" has come at the expense of their political rights as citizens. MOORE