MEXICO'S CALDERON SUBMITS BUDGET TO CONGRESS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 006823 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR A/S SHANNON STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/EPSC, EB/IFD/OMA STATE FOR EB/ESC MCMANUS AND IZZO USDOC FOR 4320/ITA/MAC/WH/ONAFTA/ARUDMAN USDOC FOR ITS/TD/ENERGY DIVISION TREASURY FOR IA (ALICE FAIBISHENKO) DOE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS KDEUTSCH AND SLADISLAW STATE PASS TO USTR (EISSENSTAT/MELLE) STATE PASS TO FEDERAL RESERVE (CARLOS ARTETA) NSC FOR DAN FISK, CYNTHIA PENDLETON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ELAB EFIN PINR PGOV MX SUBJECT: MEXICO'S CALDERON SUBMITS BUDGET TO CONGRESS REF: MEXICO 6157 -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The new Mexican government of President Felipe Calderon, which took office on December 1, submitted its 2007 budget proposal to the Chamber of Deputies on December 5. The $205-billion budget is based on assumptions of 3.6% real GDP growth, inflation of 3.0%, a Mexican oil mix price of $42.50 a barrel, and an average nominal exchange rate of 11.20 pesos to the dollar. The proposal reflects Calderon's emphasis on job creation, poverty reduction, and public security. When compared to the approved 2006 budget, the proposal increases social spending by 6.9%, anti-crime spending by 12.4%, and transfers to state-owned energy company PEMEX by 32.5%. Although the fiscal deficit increases from 0.8% of GDP in the 2006 budget to 1.6% in Calderon's proposal, the budget is fiscally responsible. The budget does not include fiscal reform measures, but Finance Secretary Agustin Carstens has said a fiscal reform package SIPDIS is likely in 2007. The proposed budget replaces the controversial 20-percent "beverage tax" on fructose-sweetened soft drinks with a 5-percent tax on drinks sweetened with either sugar or fructose syrup -- a move that Carstens says brings Mexico into compliance with a WTO ruling. Although the current political environment will complicate the process, Calderon should be able to secure congressional approval of the budget without major difficulties before the December 31 deadline. End Summary. -------------- The 2007 Budget Proposal -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Finance Secretary Carstens on December 5 presented the newly installed Calderon government's 2007 budget proposal to the Chamber of Deputies. Calderon has called the bill "realistic" and said it is based on expectations of an economic slowdown due to lower growth in the U.S. and a drop in Mexico's oil production. The budget proposal assumes real �0A;GDP growth of 3.6%, consumer price inflation of 3.0%, an average nominal exchange rate of 11.2 pesos per dollar, a real interest rate (28-day Cetes) of 3.9%, a current account deficit of 2.3% of GDP, and an oil price estimate of $42.5 per barrel for 2007. The proposal balances the budget using the narrow definition of the budget balance (which excludes contingent liabilities),but the broader measure of the budget balance, the Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (PSBR),is a deficit of 1.6% of GDP. This figure is up from the 0.8% of GDP deficit targeted in the 2006 budget. Proposed net expenditures total $205.0 billion, up 9.4% from the 2006 budget in real terms, while programmable expenditures total $149.7 billion, up 12.1% from 2006. (Note: total net expenditures actually fall by 2.9% in real terms when compared to actual 2006 spending. End Note.) The budget is based on the underlying assumptions of U.S. real GDP growth of 2.5% and a real expansion of U.S. industrial production of 3.0%. -------------- -------------- Emphasis on Security, Poverty Reduction, and Jobs -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Calderon said publicly that the budget seeks to concentrate spending on programs oriented toward his administration's three priorities: public security, the fight against poverty, and job creation. Calderon -- who is under pressure to focus more heavily on poverty alleviation to earn the support of the millions of Mexicans who voted for his leftist opponent -- increased spending on social programs by 6.9% in real terms. Calderon boosted spending on public MEXICO 00006823 002 OF 003 security by 12.4% in real terms compared with the 2006 budget. Among the administration's anti-crime initiatives are plans to establish a unified police force, create a technology-based criminal information system, and increase funds for counter-narcotics work. The government, which expects oil prices and its oil production to fall in 2007, increased transfers to PEMEX by 32.5%. The budget proposal also boosted spending on education by 4.2% and spending on health by 9.3% in real terms. The largest spending cuts went to financial services (-20.9%),communications and transportation (-20.5%),sustainable development (-18.7%), and agrarian issues (-13.3%). -------------- Reforms Notably Absent, But Promised for 2007 -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The budget does not include significant fiscal reform measures, but during the presentation of the proposal, Calderon said that the budget would be accompanied by efforts to boost Mexico's chronically low tax collection, in part by simplifying the system. During a television interview on December 6, Carstens said that the government likely would submit a fiscal reform package in 2007. Carstens said that the government needs to increase revenues because of the pressure pensions put on government finances and because PEMEX needs significant investment over the next few years to maintain its export platform. He said that without fiscal reform, the fiscal deficit would increase to 3% of GDP by ¶2012. Calderon earlier this week slashed salaries of senior officials in the executive branch by 10 percent -- including his own -- and cut expenses, such as office and telephone costs. Calderon said the measures were intended to free up funds for social programs -- though some commentators noted that the move was also at least partially intended to show up his leftist opponents. (Note: Mexican government officials are some of the highest paid in Latin America. End Note.) -------------- -------------- Carstens Says Budget Resolves Dispute Over "Beverage Tax" -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The budget proposal included a measure that would replace the controversial 20-percent "beverage tax" on sales and imports of soft drinks that use sweeteners other than cane sugar with a 5-percent tax on sales and imports of all soft drinks regardless of which type of sweetener they use. Carstens said publicly that the change brings Mexico in line with a WTO ruling that demands the fructose soda tax be eliminated. According to the local press, Mexican cane sugar producers reacted favorably to the proposal because it complies with the WTO ruling while not leaving them completely totally unprotected. -------------- Reactions to Budget Proposal -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Financial markets performed well after the announcement of the budget, with the stock market continuing to post records and the peso recovering to 10.87 pesos per dollar. HSBC's Juan Pedro Trevino and JP Morgan's Alfredo Thorne (strictly protect) agreed that the budget proposal is fiscally responsible and that Calderon and Carstens would be able to secure the budget's approval in Congress without major conflicts. Both economists said that the budget was in line with their expectations, but expressed confusion about why the current account deficit assumption jumped from 0.3% of GDP in 2006 to 2.3% in 2007. Trevino told Econoff that expectations of slower U.S. growth and lower oil revenues explained part of the jump, but he was at a loss to explain why the current account deficit worsened so much. He also told Econoff that the increase in the PSBR deficit was a MEXICO 00006823 003 OF 003 signal that Mexico needs fiscal reform to increase the tax base. ¶7. (SBU) Local press reporting shows that complaints have already arisen regarding the amount of funds allocated to infrastructure, education, and agriculture. Businessmen with interests in infrastructure development have complained about large spending cuts to the Secretariat of Communications and Transportation, arguing that the cuts will give advantage to foreign companies. (Comment: it is possible that Calderon is looking to private-sector investment to help fill the gap. End Comment.) The President of the lower house's Education Committee said publicly that he would push for more resources for the Secretariat of Public Education, saying that the budget allocations in Calderon's proposal are insufficient, particularly for higher education. Local agricultural groups are protesting for additional resources. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Calderon's budget proposal did not include any major surprises, as it was in line with what the incoming government team has been saying for the past few weeks. It focuses on Calderon's three key priorities of job creation, poverty alleviation, and public security. While it represents a slight fiscal easing, it is fiscally responsible. It appears that Calderon's strategy was to submit a relatively non-controversial budget in order to help build consensus in a difficult political environment during his first year in office. Many analysts expect that he will start pushing reforms forward in 2007. In this regard, one of Finance Secretary Carstens' key challenges will be making lawmakers understand the risks to the Mexican economy of failing to implement reforms. ¶9. (SBU) Calderon should be able to secure congressional approval of the budget without major difficulties before the December 31 deadline. This is due in part to the budget's emphasis on social spending, as well as the formula defined in the new fiscal responsibility law for calculating the oil price estimate. That said, the "political factor" will undoubtedly complicate negotiations on the budget in Congress, especially after Calderon's chaotic inauguration ceremony last week. (Note: Self-declared "legitimate president" of Mexico Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has proposed his own budget. The document proposes federal spending of $193 billion and, like Calderon's budget, it cuts office expenses and allocates more funding for infrastructure and housing programs. End Note.) Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity BASSETT