THE RADICALIZATION OF AMLO?

84372 2006-11-04 01:57:00 06MEXICO6278 Embassy Mexico CONFIDENTIAL 06MEXICO5992 VZCZCXRO9487 PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM DE RUEHME #6278/01 3080157 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 040157Z NOV 06 FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4044 INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC RHMFISS/CDR USNORTHCOM RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC TAGS: ECON FBI DHS PAS DAO CONS OPAD DCM POL AID C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 006278 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2016 TAGS: ECON FBI DHS PAS DAO CONS OPAD DCM POL AID SUBJECT: THE RADICALIZATION OF AMLO? REF: MEXICO 05992 Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR ALAN MELTZER, REASON S: 1.4 (B/D) Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) After virtually two weeks of silence, defeated presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) took a more radical line in a speech to supporters of the Popular Assembly for the People of Oaxaca (APPO),backing the protests in Oaxaca and criticizing President Fox's decision to send in federal forces. He demanded Oaxaca Governor Ulises Ruiz's resignation and the "withdrawal of army troops disguised as police." He also linked the Oaxaca crisis to a "PAN-PRI conspiracy" to put Calderon in office. As the first high-profile political figure to stridently criticize the deployment of federal forces to Oaxaca, AMLO's move will likely deepen internal Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) fissures and heighten rumors of an AMLO-APPO union. Finally, at first glance, it appears the "cabinet" AMLO announced on November 3 is composed more of AMLO loyalists (and former members of his mayoral cabinet) than PRD heavyweights, offering additional evidence that the mainstream PRD leadership may be trying to put space between the party and its former candidate. End summary. AMLO backs Oaxaca protests -------------- ¶2. (U) On October 31, AMLO delivered a well-received speech to a Mexico City crowd of over 2,000 persons at a pre-scheduled APPO rally, which was to be the starting point for a march on Los Pinos. In his speech, AMLO called for the removal of Oaxaca Governor Ruiz and described the government's deployment of the PFP to Oaxaca as a "violent military occupation" that would worsen the political and social crisis in the region. He also called on the Senate to use its powers to demand Ruiz's resignation. He accused the PAN and PRI "mafia" of striking a deal to have Calderon sworn in as President and said that the people of Oaxaca were paying for this conspiracy with their blood. AMLO shared the stage with APPO leaders, National Democratic Convention (NDC) activists, and United Progressive Front (PRD-PT-Convergencia coalition) politicians. APPO support for AMLO? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Oddly, an APPO announcer repeatedly interrupted the speech of PRD co-founder Porfirio Munoz Ledo -- who preceded AMLO -- calling on APPO supporters to begin their march to Los Pinos. While many APPO supporters left during Munoz Ledo's presentation, a sizable number remained to hear AMLO. Local newspapers El Universal and Cronica reported that AMLO had offered to APPO leaders help lead the march, but he was "respectfully" turned down. ¶4. (C) PRD member Saul Escobar downplayed to poloff the possibility that highly doubts that there would be a convergence between APPO protests and AMLO's civil disobedience activities. He told poloff that APPO was very jealous of its independence and distrustful of political parties and the APPO's goals and objectives were distinct from those of the United Progressive Front. He said that in any event, AMLO had other plans in mind. After announcing his "cabinet" today (see below),AMLO will tour the country, before returning to Mexico City by November 20 for his self-styled "inauguration." A Low Profile "Cabinet" for a High Profile "President" -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Late on November 3, AMLO announced the members of the "cabinet" that will support him during his so-called "legitimate presidency." Its members include former SRE Undersecretary (and Ambassador to Jamaica, Uruguay and Norway) Gustavo Iruega as Secretary of Foreign Relations, journalist and former Deputy Jose Agustin Ortiz as Secretary of Political Relations, and at least a half-dozen former Mexico City officials/AMLO loyalists. At first glance, it appears there are few mainstream PRD heavyweights among the MEXICO 00006278 002 OF 002 names, although respected AMLO advisors Rogelio Ramirez de la O and Jose Maria Perez Gay will belong to a small, presidential advisory council. Comment: A Leader Looking for a Movement? -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Although it is too soon to draw any firm conclusions about AMLO's latest tactics, it is curious that he decided to make his first major public appearance at an APPO rally after two weeks of self-imposed silence. One interpretation is that in the wake of the defeat of his candidate in the Tabasco gubernatorial race (reftel),he is increasingly a leader looking for a movement, hoping to piggyback on APPO's perceived momentum. His strident criticism of the deployment of federal forces to Oaxaca, and his association with APPO, suggests an increasingly anti-establishment tilt. If this interpretation is correct, the PRD's day of reckoning may be drawing nearer. Party moderates such as Zacatecas Governor Amalia Garcia and Michoacan Governor Lazaro Cardenas, have already opened lines of communication to the incoming administration. Likewise, Chiapas Governor-elect Juan Sabines (PRD) announced he would work with Calderon and would not attend AMLO's November 20 "inauguration." With the most moderate PRD leaders committed to working within the system, and with AMLO operating increasingly outside of it, the day on which mainstream PRDistas will be required to choose sides may be drawing nearer. 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