PULSING THE POLLS: AMLO LEADS, MADRAZO TRAILS,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 000618 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV MX SUBJECT: PULSING THE POLLS: AMLO LEADS, MADRAZO TRAILS, THE PAN BUILDS MOMENTUM REF: A. 05 MEXICO 5527 ¶B. O5 MEXICO 7435 ¶1. (SBU): Summary: Institutional Revolution (PRI) and Democratic Revolution (PRD) party pollsters, plus Televisa's Mitofsky and newspapers El Universal and Reforma each released polls in January (as the official campaigns kicked off) that confirmed PRD candidate Lopez Obrador's (AMLO) lead, reaffirmed the strong negatives associated with PRI candidate Madrazo, and gave conflicting reads on National Action (PAN) candidate Calderon's success in building momentum. Interestingly it is PRI pollster Maria de las Heras (Demotecnia) that has results implying popular perception of AMLO is glowing, in stark contrast to the PRI's Madrazo. PRD pollster Covarrubias acknowledged that more of those polled are identifying the PAN as the best party. Mitofsky results indicate voters will split their ballot, voting for one party's candidate for president, but going with another party for Congress. While campaigns have disputed individual poll findings, the trend lines continue to point to a pretty close vote in July. End Summary AMLO Holds His Lead -------------- ¶2. (SBU) All five polls keep AMLO in the lead; Covarrubias, Reforma and Mitofsky show him gaining support over the last month while Demotecnia and El Universal show him slowly losing votes, although still well ahead of his two competitors. It's important to note that the January polls are generally the first that refer to the candidates and their alliances with other parties -- some suggest his gains in January reflect the Democratic Revolution Party's (PRD) alliance with the Workers' (PT) and Democratic Convergence (CD) parties. Demotecnia also polls respondents on their views about the candidate who best represents their needs, who is most honest, respects the laws, and can solve problems -- AMLO sweeps the entire list of positives. The same is true in Covarrubias' poll -- AMLO scores highest on everything from increasing employment to reducing public insecurity. Over time the trends look like: Polling Results -- AMLO October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 Demotecnia 39 37 Mitofsky 35 34.7 38.7 Covarrubias 42 35 39 El Universal 34 33 Reforma 31 29 34 Madrazo Holds His Negatives -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Just as AMLO sweeps the positives, Madrazo continues to have a strong hold on the negatives, coming in third in all polls. Covarrubias reports that 44 percent of those polled had a bad impression of Madrazo in December 2005, a figure that decreased to 40 percent in January but was still 24 points above the nearest competitor (AMLO with 16). Demotecnia respondents rated Madrazo lowest when rating the candidate that would be the best president, the candidate who would respect the law, and the candidate who is most honest. Mitofksy also has Madrazo with the highest level -- by far -- of negative appraisal by respondents, with 40 percent reporting low opinions of the candidate. The PRI as a party had a negative ranking of 37.5 percent, the highest of any of the parties, although closely followed by the New Alliance Party, formed as a result of infighting within the PRI, which came in at 35.4 percent. It also appears the PRI gained little from its alliance with the PVEM, which was polling at 5-6 percent before the alliance. Mitofsky notes as well that Madrazo is losing support from within the PRI even as he picks up some independent votes. Polling Results -- Madrazo October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 Demotecnia 29 30 Mitofsky 30.4 32.7 29.2 Covarrubias 21 16 22 MEXICO 00000618 002 OF 002 El Universal 18 20 Reforma 26 21 22 Calderon Holds On -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Calderon was perceived as building momentum from a fairly successful PAN primary campaign up until the Christmas truce was declared in December and early January. While Mitofsky and Reforma polls indicate his momentum may have dropped off, the other polls seem to suggest that Calderon continues to increase support, primarily from PAN members and a small number of independents. Mitofsky warns that Calderon is third amongst the youth vote which the PAN has targetted. Demotecnia finds that only 18 percent of those polled think the PAN can win the presidency a second time. Covarrubias on the other hand finds that the PAN gets the highest rankings as a party -- and that support for the PAN increased from 29 percent describing it as the best in December 2005 to 31 percent describing it as the best in January 2006. All three polls note that name recognition for Calderon has jumped appreciably -- and positively -- over the last few months, but he still lags behind both AMLO and Madrazo who each have name recognition levels in the high 90s. Polling Results -- Calderon October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2005 Demotecnia 25 31 Mitofsky 29 31.5 31 Covarrubias 22 24 27 El Universal 22 27 Reforma 23 28 26 Abstentions, Split Votes, New Parties -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Demotecnia is the only pollster to predict turn out and estimates that 47 percent will vote in July 2006, based on most recent polling data. Mitofsky results covered congressional voting, which in January 2006 looked to be divided almost evenly into thirds. Of those polled, 33.5 percent would vote for PAN candidates for Congress, 35 percent would vote for PRI/PVEM candidates, and 30.4 percent would vote for PRD/CD/PT candidates. It's important to note that the candidate lists for congress have not yet been finalized. Finally, none of the polls gives much hope that the two newly-formed parties, "Alternativa" and New Alliance (PANAL) will meet the 2 percent requirement to remain active parties. Only Demotecnia gives "Alternativa" two percent of the vote, and none can record a percentage for PANAL. Finally, disparity in polling results remains a source of controversy, in part because the candidates are so close and the independent vote as yet so fluid. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity KELLY