GOM INTERVENES IN OAXACA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 006182 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV CONS MX SUBJECT: GOM INTERVENES IN OAXACA REF: MEXICO 5771 ¶1. (SBU) Begin summary: The five month-old crisis in Oaxaca reached a critical juncture October 29 with the deployment of Mexico's Federal Preventive Police (PFP) to the embattled state following three October 27 fatalities, including the killing of American journalist Brad Will. This cable assesses the immediate implications of the federal intervention, how it might impact the balance of power between the disputing parties, and possible scenarios for Oaxaca's near-term future. The crisis is not over and, while there have been only limited confrontations between protesters and the PFP, the potential for violence will remain high for the coming days. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) After months of resisting broad-based public calls to intervene forcefully in Oaxaca, the Fox government decided over the weekend of October 28 to deploy federal police to the state capital in order to restore law and order. The decision came in the aftermath of three killings October 27, including of an American journalist caught in the cross-fire between forces allegedly loyal to Governor Ulises Ruiz and APPO protesters. Fox's decision to send in over 4,000 federal police to the state capital also came on the heels of a vote taken October 26 by members of the state teachers' union to return to class this week. APPO Weakened by Intervention -------------- ¶3. (SBU) After six hours of slow and occasionally violent retreat on October 29, APPO members withdrew from their barricades and by nightfall had ceded the historic central square which they had occupied for months. APPO reported the death of a 15-year old boy, who had been guarding one of its barricades, as a result of the federal intervention, as well as the detention of 50 of its members. (Note: Some police sources told the media the boy was killed by explosives he had been handling. End note.) By October 30, the PFP appeared to have complete control of key access points to Oaxaca City and the Zocalo, while the APPO had retreated to the local university to regroup. ¶4. (SBU) APPO is under increased pressure following the GOM's removal of its encampments in Oaxaca City and the teachers' decision to return to class. Organization leader Zennen Bravo asked protest members not to confront the federal police and has called instead for "passive mobilization." It is not clear how much pressure the APPO can wield as long as it is prevented by police forces from shutting off commercial and government activity in Oaxaca City. As the teachers return to school and citizens regain control of their city, APPO members could feel increasingly isolated. On October 30, there were press reports that APPO members were conducting marches back to the Zocalo, had established a new encampment in Plaza Santo Domingo, and refused to continue negotiations with the Secretary of Government in protest of the PFP deployment. (Note: The U.S. Consular Agent's Office, which faces Plaza Santo Domingo, was closed today. There have been reports of clashes this afternoon between PFP and APPO members in Plaza Santo Domingo. End note.) Teachers did not return to school today as a consequence of the latest events. Ruiz Similarly in a Corner -------------- ¶5. (SBU) At first glance, the federal intervention takes the heat off Ruiz by limiting the APPO's freedom of action in Oaxaca City. Ruiz continues to insist that he will not leave office and has the full backing of the PRI, at least until December 1, which marks two years in office and the point at which the PRI-controlled state congress would be able to name a PRI successor as governor. Yet Ruiz will be badly damaged by the events of the past few days, and it is hard to imagine how he could return to office under "business as usual." An investigation into the October 27 killings could find him complicit, and there are early signs that paramilitary forces loyal to him were responsible for that day's fatalities. Whether or not he was behind the violence, his inability to provide security and, now, the presence of federal forces in the state capital are further proof of his inability to govern Oaxaca. MEXICO 00006182 002 OF 002 ¶6. (SBU) On October 30, Mexico's Chamber of Deputies overwhelmingly approved a resolution calling on Ruiz to resign or request a leave from office in order to restore peace and order in the state, with only deputies from the PRI and the Green Party voting against it. There are some signs that even Ruiz's support in the PRI is flagging: PRI Chamber of Deputies leader Emilio Gamboa was quoted today as saying that Ruiz needed to "make an act of conscience" and decide whether he could continue to govern the state. (Note: Only the national senate or state congress can vote to remove Ruiz. End note). Next steps? -------------- ¶7. (SBU) With only one death confirmed since the PFP deployment to Oaxaca, the Mexican public will likely endorse President Fox's decision to launch a federal takeover of Oaxaca. Fox has said that the PFP will remain until order is fully restored. There is no immediate pressure on the PFP to withdraw, which should strengthen the GOM's hand in trying to resolve the crisis. According to a well-respected professor of law, the Mexican constitution is vague about the duration of a federal intervention, but the cost of keeping the PFP in Oaxaca for more than two months may be prohibitive, and the GOM is likely to scale back its presence once the situation has stabilized. The GOM will maintain the legitimacy of a continued federal police presence if that presence remains relatively peaceful and if the GOM successfully portrays this as the only way to maintain order and guarantee the safety of students and teachers returning to class. ¶8. (SBU) The GOM will need to affectively contain the conflict. For months, one of the biggest worries about Oaxaca's political crisis has been that it could spill over to other areas of the nation. On October 29, APPO protesters in Mexico City seized two buses and used them to block traffic in the city center. The same day, a large PRD motorcade filed through the capital's Zocalo festooned with placards referencing the crisis in Oaxaca and calling for Ruiz's resignation. However, although many Mexicans have voiced support for Oaxaca's teachers, there are few outside Oaxaca who have rallied behind APPO's radical tactics. In fact, some PRD leaders joined their colleagues from other parties to lend cautious support to the PFP deployment. Rumors that the PRD will capitalize on the crisis or link in some fashion to the APPO do not seem credible. That said, failed presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has criticized the federal intervention and called for the removal of Ruiz. ¶9. (SBU) The Oaxaca crisis is complicated by the political interests involved. Up until now, no actor has been willing to assume the political costs of pressuring the ouster of Governor Ruiz, which would serve to resolve the conflict. Fox's refusal to intervene with force had been a source of tension between the outgoing President and President-elect Calderon, who does not want to inherit this problem. Now that he has intervened, President Fox will need to pressure parties to the conflict to reach a peaceful resolution as well as hold Ruiz accountable for acts of thuggery committed on his behalf (or at his behest). The events of October 27, including the shooting of Brad Will, could well make it easier for federal officials to build a case against Ruiz and harder for the PRI to resist. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity GARZA