OAXACA: ATTITUDES HARDEN AS PROTESTORS SHIFT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 005567 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV MX SUBJECT: OAXACA: ATTITUDES HARDEN AS PROTESTORS SHIFT DIRECTION REF: MEXICO 4619 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In recent days, positions on the opposing sides of the Oaxaca crisis appear to have hardened as tensions continue to mount. To pressure the federal government to send forces to resolve the conflict, local business leaders declared that several thousand establishments, including 147 gas stations, would shut down for two days, beginning the night of September 27. The same day, a group of Oaxaca mayors and legislators gathered outside the Secretariat of Government in Mexico City urging the federal government to use force to restore the rule of law. On September 25, President Fox met with Oaxaca Governor Ulises Ruiz and 10 other PRI governors who backed Ruiz and demanded that the GOM not engage in any negotiation that would lead to his dismissal. On September 24, a violent exchange occurred when protestors entered a Oaxaca City hotel searching for Ruiz, who they thought was in the building. Incidents of violence and sabotage persist. Meanwhile, a group of up to 5,000 Oaxaca protestors are making their way by foot to Mexico City to demand the removal of Ruiz. End summary. Negotiations go nowhere -------------- ¶2. (SBU) As the four month strike continues, it is complicating President Fox,s exit and worrying president-elect Felipe Calderon. Although Fox has assured Calderon he will resolve the crisis before leaving office December 1, he appears to be vacillating in his response with a strategy of &wait and see.8 The federal government finds itself in a pickle. Although both the federal and state governments have indicated a willingness to increase the teachers, salaries significantly, the Popular People,s Assembly of Oaxaca (APPO) refuses to negotiate unless Ruiz leaves office, which the governor steadfastly refuses to do. ¶3. (SBU) As a result, mediation efforts by Secretary of Government Carlos Abascal have foundered. Only the national or state senate can remove Ruiz, an almost impossible scenario in the PRI-dominated state congress and an unlikely scenario in the national senate where the PAN needs PRI cooperation in order to govern. (Note: The PRI recognizes that if it agreed to remove Ruiz before his two year mark in office on December 1, state elections would be called and a non-PRI candidate would likely win. End note). In addition, many in the federal government do not want to remove a sitting governor for fear of the precedent that would set, and they do not wish to give Mexico,s diverse radical groups a common enemy against which to unite. Teachers will no longer be paid -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Although Ruiz indicated he would stop paying salaries and terminate the contracts of teachers who didn,t return to work on September 25, the teachers have not returned. Yet many will soon feel the pinch of not being paid (they were last paid September 15 and are due to receive their salaries again September 29) and some will see no choice but to return to work. As that happens, the strike will lose energy. An outstanding question is whether the teachers would be able to return to work without a credible threat of violence against them from radical groups demanding the governor,s ouster. ¶5. (SBU) The leadership and agendas of the Oaxaca teachers and APPO organizations are diffuse. The strike continues to ride on a wave of discontent with Ruiz,s authoritarian style of governorship and is underpinned by the marginalization and poverty of many Oaxacans. Political analyst Rossana Fuentes told poloff she thought it unlikely the unrest could spread to other states or become a national movement. However, she expressed concern that armed guerilla groups, such as the EZLN, might try to use the Oaxaca protests as a pretext to generate additional instability. Mexico City Sit-in Part II -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The APPO may not be alone in the coming Mexico City protest, which will likely focus on the Secretariat of Government, the national Senate, and the zocalo. Javier MEXICO 00005567 002 OF 002 Quijano, a lawyer who represented Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) during the desafuero campaign against him, told poloff he believed that some PRD supporters could join the Oaxaca protestors next week. He also thought the protest could feed into the annual October 2 march to commemorate the 1968 massacre of Mexican students. However, the APPO does not represent a revolutionary movement. It is targeted against the governor and old PRI structure in Oaxaca, and is looking to Mexico,s institutions--namely, the federal government--to heed its demands. Although the APPO to some extent threatens Oaxaca,s democratic structure, the protesters see no other way to remove who they consider a reprehensible governor and are marching to Mexico City in order to voice their concerns free from thugs loyal to Ruiz. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: If Oaxaca,s teachers begin to return to work, the multidimensional protest will likely take on a new dynamic, with the teachers, movement weakening and radical groups under the APPO umbrella losing the teachers, support. This erosion of unity is presumably what the federal government is counting on. Oaxacans have tired of the conflict and many are openly calling the federal government to intervene. Despite Ruiz,s urging and although it hasn,t ruled this out, the Fox government appears disinclined to use force to resolve the conflict. However, if the coming Mexico City protest leads to violence or radical groups in Oaxaca succeed in further undermining the state,s governability, then the federal government will be hard pressed not to act. Based on the peaceful nature of the PRD-protest in support of AMLO, we believe that the Government of Mexico City has demonstrated the capacity of containing protestors in the capital, and the Oaxaca protest will be much smaller than AMLO,s. That said, some groups represented by APPO have turned to violence in Oaxaca and could trigger it in Mexico City. Whatever the outcome, the ongoing crisis contributes to an impression of political instability and lessens investor confidence in Mexico. Oaxaca could become president-elect Calderon,s first major challenge. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity GARZA