MEXICO'S DRAMATIC POLITICAL WEEKEND

77216 2006-09-05 20:34:00 06MEXICO4987 Embassy Mexico CONFIDENTIAL 06MEXICO4707 VZCZCXRO1607 PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM DE RUEHME #4987/01 2482034 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 052034Z SEP 06 FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3023 INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY RHMFISS/CDR USNORTHCOM PRIORITY RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY PRIORITY RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY TAGS: ECON ELAB PINR PGOV MX C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 004987 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2016 TAGS: ECON ELAB PINR PGOV MX SUBJECT: MEXICO'S DRAMATIC POLITICAL WEEKEND REF: MEXICO 4707 Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR CHARLES V. BARCLAY REASONS: 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) Summary: On Friday, September 1, the Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) made good on its promise to prevent President Fox from delivering his final annual report to the Mexican Congress, part of the PRD's commitment to Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's (AMLO's) plan to humiliate the President (reftel). AMLO backed down from leading his supporters to convene on the Congress, while political party representatives who spoke before Fox's scheduled address complained about a state of siege by federal forces which had established a security perimeter around the Congress. Although unpopular with most Mexicans, the PRD's successful strategy to block Fox from taking the podium is likely to have emboldened it to try to disrupt President-elect Felipe Calderon's inauguration on December 1. End summary. ¶2. (C) In the minutes before Fox was scheduled to enter the Congress on September 1, PRD legislators took control of the congressional dais, chanting AMLO's slogan "vote by vote, polling place by polling place" and making it effectively impossible for Fox to deliver his speech there. Some PRD lawmakers also held up banners calling Fox a "traitor" to democracy. Chamber President Jorge Zermeno of the ruling PAN party unsuccessfully urged the opposition legislators to return to their seats and then declared a recess. In an atmosphere more comical than hostile, PAN legislators responded to PRD heckling by shouting "Vicente." ¶3. (C) Upon arriving at the Congress, Fox stopped at the lobby entrance and remarked, "faced with the attitude of a group of legislators that makes it impossible to read the speech I have prepared for this occasion, I am leaving the building." He then hand-delivered his prepared address to congressional officials and returned to the presidential palace, where he gave his speech on television. In that address, Fox characterized the legislators' actions as "not an affront to me personally but to the office of the president and the Mexican people." A snap poll in Mexico's Reforma newspaper showed that 77 percent of Mexicans disapproved of the PRD's efforts to prevent Fox from delivering his final state-of-the-nation address (Note: Mexican press has been overwhelmingly critical of the PRD's action. End note). ¶4. (C) That same day, AMLO backed down from urging his supporters to converge on the Congress. In the face of a robust federal security ring established around the area leading to the Congress, AMLO told supporters that he would not fall into the government's "trap." On September 3, at his daily address to supporters on the Zocalo, AMLO asked them to sustain the peaceful resistance and said that Mexico needs a "radical transformation." He also warned the army, as he has in the past, not to take action against the people that would bring it "disrespect," alluding to darker periods of repression in Mexico's history. AMLO has called for the convening of a National Democratic Convention on September 16, the same day that Mexico celebrates its Independence and the army is scheduled to parade along the very same route now blocked by protesters. 5 (C) Comment: Only two other Mexican presidents in the past 180 years have not been able to deliver their state-of-the-nation address to the Congress, and this was the first time in modern history that a president was blocked from doing so. While the PRD continues to lose public support in the face of its increasingly radical tactics, AMLO's strategy to provoke a crisis of governability has gained some traction in the short-run and showed that he still has control over his party. AMLO's actions have also contributed to undermining the credibility of Mexico's electoral institutions and further weakening the presidency. Even if AMLO now begins to retreat in terms of pressuring Mexico's government from the streets - a possible but not certain outcome following today's ruling - the PRD can be expected to do everything in its power to limit Felipe Calderon's ability to govern once he takes office. The PRD's September 1 behavior should be seen as a dress rehearsal for December 1, when it will likely seek to prevent the President-elect from delivering his acceptance speech. The challenge for Calderon's team will be crafting an inaugural event that contains the PRD. With only two months to go before assuming the presidency, the slimmest of mandates to MEXICO 00004987 002 OF 002 govern, and an obstructionist Congress facing him, Calderon enters office with an extremely steep hill to climb. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity BASSETT