STRENGTHENING CALDERON'S WEAK HAND

76950 2006-09-01 12:01:00 06MEXICO4937 Embassy Mexico CONFIDENTIAL R 011201Z SEP 06 FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2974 NSC WASHDC INFO ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L MEXICO 004937 STATE - WHA A/S SHANNON AND NSC - FISK FROM THE AMBASSADOR E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL MX SUBJECT: STRENGTHENING CALDERON'S WEAK HAND Classified By: AMBASSADOR ANTONIO O. GARZA JR FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: In the coming days the Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF) is expected to confirm National Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderon's presidential victory, but the protests will continue. Thwarted Democratic Revolution (PRD) candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has already promised to undermine Calderon at every turn, and will determine his next steps during a September 16 "Democratic Convention." Calderon has perforce been largely silent throughout the TEPJF's deliberations, reflecting discipline and patience, two qualities that will serve him well in the difficult days ahead. Nevertheless, his razor-thin mandate inevitably has been eroded by AMLO's harassment, by perceived insults from his party's leadership, and by the cold shoulder offered from President Fox. Calderon will have virtually no "honeymoon," and will need strong support from the USG to reinforce his agenda and leadership. I have already met with him twice during the past several weeks to convey our support, should his election be confirmed, as now appears inevitable. I also have a private dinner scheduled with him for September 19, at which time I will be able to reiterate this support and address key transition issues. I recommend that President Bush call Calderon with congratulations once the election results are ratified, and that he invite Calderon to visit with him at the earliest opportunity. I will separately take Commerce Secretary Gutierrez up on his offer to visit in late September/early October to offer a hand of friendship to both departing President Fox and President-elect Calderon. From the Embassy we will begin vigorous transition planning across the board with the Calderon team, starting with an early meeting with team leaders Juan Camillo Mourino and Josefina Vasquez Mota. I would like to strongly recommend that First Lady Laura Bush lead a broad and representative U.S. delegation to Calderon's inauguration as a key signal of the friendship and esteem we hold for Mexico and President-elect Calderon. End Summary. Bittersweet Victory ¶2. (C) The TEPJF is days away from an expected ratification of Felipe Calderon as the President-elect of Mexico -- but Calderon's victory is tarnished by the long -- and continuing -- electoral protests led by AMLO. The PRD has already signaled it will make Fox's last "state of the union" (informe) address a three-ring-circus of antagonism September 1. AMLO will decide September 16 what his next steps will be, but we can anticipate that from now through at least inauguration day AMLO will spare no effort to embarrass and insult Calderon. While AMLO's popular support may reduce to a hard core of true believers, his constant barrage of attacks against the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE),the TEPJF, and against Calderon have taken their toll in the public mindset. On July 2 Mexicans were sure of their institutions, the credibility of the results, and the outcome of 41 million ballots cast. Today the institutions and their determinations are shadowed by doubt. Calderon has had to be largely silent during the TEPJF's deliberations, leaving the stage to AMLO's dramatic gesticulations. ¶3. (C) While Calderon's spokesmen have spoken out in his favor, the PAN structure has done little to support the putative President-elect. During the initial AMLO attacks against Calderon, the PAN leadership literally went on vacation. Most recently, party leaders handed Calderon a very public series of defeats by putting his political competitors in charge of the PAN factions in the Senate (Santiago Creel) and the Chamber of Deputies (Hector Larios). This means that Calderon will have to negotiate with his own faction, in addition to the PRI's, to get reform initiatives through the newly-constituted 60th legislature. President Fox has made no secret of the fact that, while relieved AMLO apparently didn't win, he has no love lost for Calderon. Calderon, for his part, has reason to be irritated that Fox's repeated failures to maintain what Mexicans consider an appropriate distance from the election further clouded Calderon's narrow victory. Lost Honeymoon ¶4. (C) Given the turmoil surrounding the confirmation of his election, the divisions within his party, and the legacy Fox will leave, Calderon will come into office December 1 in the weakest possible situation politically. We risk stagnation on our highest-profile issues unless we can send a strong signal of support, prompt the Calderon team into a vigorous transition, and reinforce Calderon's agenda and leadership. President Bush started us off well by congratulating Calderon after the July 6 IFE declaration that the PAN candidate had received the most votes. I recommend that President Bush make a second call to Calderon once the TEPJF results are released, offering formal congratulations on his victory. At that point my mission team will engage energetically with Calderon's transition team to invigorate progress on our priority areas. I understand Commerce Secretary Gutierrez is willing to make an early visit to Mexico, and I will encourage him to do so in late September or early October, as a first opportunity to signal our respect for both outgoing President Fox and President-elect Calderon. Finally, the December 1 inauguration will be the moment Calderon supersedes the irritations AMLO has posed these many months, and finally becomes President. I deeply hope that First Lady Laura Bush will be able to lead a broad and representative delegation of USG officials as a symbol of our commitment to working closely with the Calderon team. Her presence would unmistakably signal the President's strong, personal support as the incipient Calderon administration confronts an unusually challenging political climate. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity GARZA