(CORRECTED COPY) PLAYING WITH A CRYSTAL BALL:

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MEXICO 004291 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN MX PGOV PINR PREL SUBJECT: (CORRECTED COPY) PLAYING WITH A CRYSTAL BALL: PREDICTING CALDERON'S FUTURE CABINET ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Even as Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador continues to challenge the July 2 election results, Felipe Calderon is quietly planning his transition to power, leading to speculation as to who will be invited to join his future administration. Although we believe it is generally too early to begin matching names with likely cabinet positions, this cable is intended to provide background on nine persons who seem well-positioned to take on significant roles in the new administration, assuming Calderon,s election is confirmed by the electoral tribunal. They consist of a varied group, including members of Calderon,s inner circle, old party hands from the PAN (and other parties),veteran diplomats, and officials in former administrations. As transition planning advances, we will provide background on additional likely nominees and will be better placed to match names with their likely positions. End summary. Josefina VAZQUEZ Mota -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Campaign coordinator for Felipe Calderon, Josefina Vazquez Mota has recently been named to Calderon,s transition team and will head negotiations with the PRI, PRD, and other parties to begin garnering support for Calderon,s proposed coalition government. She is considered among Calderon,s most trusted and influential advisors and is often seen at his side. ¶3. (SBU) Born January 20, 1961 in Mexico City and a former resident of the northern state of Chihuahua, Ms. Vazquez is an economist by training. In 2000, she was elected to the Chamber of Deputies, where during her brief tenure, she quickly distinguished herself as the party,s effective deputy economic coordinator. She served as Secretary of Social Development in President Vicente Fox,s cabinet from December 2000 to January 2006. Although a surprise, last minute choice for Fox,s cabinet, over time she gained stature and strengthened her position in the administration and in the PAN. ¶4. (SBU) Ms. Vazquez earned her bachelor,s degree in economics at Iberoamerican University, and has also studied at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM) and at the Pan-American Institute of Upper-Level Business Management. She has written widely for the Mexican press and has spoken at numerous conferences in Mexico and abroad. She describes herself as having battled gender discrimination in the workplace, and throughout her career she has displayed a particular concern for issues affecting Mexican women. She is married and has three daughters. Her English ability is unknown. Francisco Javier RAMIREZ Acuna -------------- ¶5. (U) Francisco Ramirez is in the final stretch of his 6 year term as governor of Jalisco (2001-2007). Mr. Ramirez helped kick start Felipe Calderon,s presidential campaign in the key PAN stronghold of Jalisco, site also of the closing event in Calderon,s campaign. ¶6. (U) Born April 22, 1952 in Jamay, Jalisco, Mr. Ramirez studied law at the University of Guadalajara and served two terms as deputy in Jalisco,s state legislature (1974-1977 and 1980-1983) and as Guadalajara,s mayor from 1998-2000. Press reports indicate that as governor, Mr. Ramirez has a reputation of governing in an aloof style, taking numerous foreign junkets, and rarely interacting with the media. Mr. Ramirez studied law at the University of Guadalajara. His English ability is unknown. Arturo SARUKHAN Casamitjana -------------- ¶7. (U) Mr. Sarukhan is a career diplomat who was Mexican consul general in New York from 2003 to February 2006. He left his post early to join the Calderon campaign as International Affairs Advisor. He joined the Mexican Foreign Service in 1994, although he previously held non-career appointments in the Secretariat for Foreign Relations, including as chief of staff for former Secretary of Foreign Relations, Jorge Castaneda Gutman (2000-03). Previously he served as an advisor to the Secretary of Foreign Relations (1991-92) and as the SRE,s Director for Inter-American Negotiation (1992-93). He served in the Mexican Embassy in MEXICO 00004291 002 OF 004 Washington (1993-98) where he held the position of Chief of Staff to the Ambassador and later directed counternarcotics and law enforcement issues. ¶8. (U) His education career includes BAs in International Relations (1988) from the prestigious Colegio de Mexico and in History from UNAM. A recipient of Fulbright and Ford Foundation Fellow scholarships, Mr. Sarukhan received an MA in U.S. Foreign Policy and International Economics from the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) of the John Hopkins University (1991). He has written widely on international affairs and has taught classes at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM). Mr. Sarukhan has a special interest in globalization and its implications for Mexico. He is fluent in English, Catalan, and French. He reads Portuguese and Italian. Andres ROZENTAL Gutman -------------- ¶9. (U) Ambassador Andres Rozental currently serves as President of the Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internacionales (COMEXI),Mexico,s equivalent of the Council on Foreign Relations, a position he has held since 2002. He also is a member of the Board of Directors of Mittal Steel, Chairman of the Board of Latinoamericana de Duty Free, and the President of his own consulting firm, Rosental & Asociados. ¶10. (U) Ambassador Rozental had a long and distinguished career in the Mexican Diplomatic Service. He held various senior government and diplomatic posts including Ambassador of Mexico to the United Kingdom (1995-1997),Sweden (1983-1988),and Permanent Representative of Mexico to the United Nations in Geneva. He has also served in various capacities in Mexico,s Foreign Ministry including as Deputy Foreign Minister from 1988 to 1994 and as Director of North American Affairs (1979-83). From 2000 to 2001, Ambassador Rozental served as Ambassador-at-large and special envoy for President Fox. ¶11. (U) Ambassador Rozental attended public high school in New York, while his stepfather, a future foreign minister, was posted at the United Nations. He studied at Haverford College (Pennsylvania) although he did not graduate, completing his undergraduate studies in international relations at Mexico,s Universidad de las Americas, and his MA in International Law from the University of Pennsylvania. He also did post-graduate studies in international economics at the University of Bordeaux in France. ¶12. (U) The son of Russian immigrants, Ambassador Rozental was born on April 27, 1945 in Mexico City. His wife Vivian, also Mexican, graduated from Bryn Mawr College in Pennsylvania. He is a part-time professor of international relations at ITAM, has authored three books on Mexican foreign policy and written numerous articles on international affairs. He is the stepson of former Foreign Minister Jorge Castaneda y Alvarez de la Rosa (1979-82) and the half-brother of President Fox,s first Foreign Minister, Jorge Castaneda Gutman (2000-03). He and his wife have two grown daughters. Agustin CARSTENS -------------- ¶13. (U) Agustin Carstens is currently Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and has served in that position since August 2003. Prior to taking up his current position, he was Mexico,s Deputy Secretary of Finance (2000-03),where he was responsible for economic policy, Mexico,s external and internal debt, and financial sector supervision and legislation. From 1999-2000, he was an IMF Executive Director. He previously held senior positions in the Bank of Mexico. He was also an Alternate Governor for Mexico at the InterAmerican Development Bank and the World Bank. ¶14. (U) Born in 1958, Mr. Carstens received his BA in Economics from ITAM in 1982, and his MA and Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago in 1983 and 1985. He has been quoted as saying that in order to achieve faster growth and poverty reduction, successful integration needs to be accompanied by prudent macro-economic policies and a deepening of structural reforms. ¶15. (U) Mr. Carsten,s has published articles in collections MEXICO 00004291 003 OF 004 edited by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, University of London, OECD, IMF and the World Bank. He has also published articles in such journals as Columbia Journal of World Business and American Economic Review, to name a few. German MARTINEZ Cazares -------------- ¶16. (U) Although Mr. Martinez did not work directly in Calderon,s presidential campaign, he is a close advisor to Calderon and was selected to be part of his transition team. He now serves as PAN Representative to Mexico,s Federal Electoral Institute (IFE). From 2003 to 2006, he served as a federal Deputy from Michoacan. He also served as a Federal Deputy from 1997-2000, when he presided over the Commission of Population and Development. ¶17. (U) Born June 20, 1967 in Morelia, Michoacan, Mr. Martinez received his law degree from Universidad La Salle in Mexico City and is a candidate to get his Doctorate in Constitutional Law from Universidad Complutense in Madrid, Spain. ¶18. (U) Since his entry into the PAN in 1988, he has served in numerous positions in the party such as coordinator for PAN,s legislative platform (2003-2006),and Director of Research for the PAN party,s National Executive Committee (of which he is a member),and was a member of President Vicente Fox,s campaign committee during the 2000 election. Luis TELLEZ Kuenzler -------------- ¶19. (U) As a lifelong PRIista and former member of Ernesto Zedillo,s cabinet, Luis Tellez,s declaration of support for Felipe Calderon during the campaign caught the eye of the Calderon team as a possible future ally. He is currently Managing Director of The Carlyle Group, one of the largest private equity firms worldwide. ¶20. (SBU) Born October 13, 1958 in Mexico City, the US-trained economist served as President Zedillo,s Secretary of Energy from 1997 to 2000 and as his Chief of Staff from 1994 to 1997. In the latter position, he played a prominent role in negotiating a $50 billion rescue package from the Clinton Administration and the IMF. As Under Secretary of Planning at the Ministry of Agriculture in 1993, he was the chief author of the government,s controversial land tenure reform, which encouraged privatization of communal farms. Tellez also participated in NAFTA discussions on agriculture-related issues. He is known as a mild-mannered technocrat, direct and businesslike. ¶21. (U) Mr. Tellez received his BA in Economics from ITAM University in the late 1970,s; he later earned a law degree from UNAM in 1980. In 1986, while on a Fulbright scholarship, he earned a Ph.D. in economics at MIT. Tellez is married to the former Consuelo Moralez Viesca. He speaks English well. Genaro BORREGO Estrada -------------- ¶22. (SBU) Former PRI president (1992-1993),Genaro Borrego is another former PRIista who has caught the eye of the Calderon team as a potential ally. Having openly opposed the presidential candidacy of Roberto Madrazo and being threatened for expulsion from the PRI for doing so, Genaro Borrego voluntarily resigned from the PRI in June 2006 and announced his support for Calderon. His personal ties to the PAN -- his father was a prominent PANista and his brother recently won election as a federal Deputy for the PAN -- makes him a strong contender for appointment to the cabinet. ¶23. (SBU) Born February 28, 1949 in Zacatecas, Zacatecas, Mr. Borrego was a federal senator representing his home state from 2000 to 2006. In 2002, he gave a speech before the Mexican Senate in which he strongly condemned a March 2002 U.S. Supreme Court decision that circumscribed the rights of undocumented aliens in the U.S. Nevertheless, we have found him accessible and friendly to U.S. officials. ¶24. (SBU) Before his election to the Senate, he was Director General of the Mexican Social Security Institute from 1993 to ¶2000. He also served as Governor of Zacatecas from MEXICO 00004291 004 OF 004 1986-1992, where he developed the reputation of being an energetic reformer and was widely perceived as one of the PRI,s rising stars. ¶25. (SBU) Mr. Borrego holds a degree in Industrial Relations (1969) from Iberoamerican University. He is married to the former Elizabeth Hoffman and has four children. He is very proud of having trained as a bullfighter during his youth and remains interested in the sport. He is well informed, personable and persuasive. He speaks at least some English. Roberto CAMPA Cifrian -------------- ¶26. (U) As Nueva Alianza,s 2006 presidential candidate, Roberto Campa Cifrian received only 0.94% of the total vote, although his party did succeed in electing candidates to the Senate and Chamber of Deputies, securing its registration as a party. Roberto Campa was the first of the presidential candidates to publicly recognize Felipe Calderon as the apparent winner of the 2006 elections. He was a former member of the PRI party but resigned in late 2005, after openly opposing Roberto Madrazo,s presidential candidacy. ¶27. (SBU) He is a protege of teachers, union leader Elba Esther Gordillo. Although he is not known to be personally close to Felipe Calderon, his relationship with Gordillo and his position in the Nueva Alianza-- whose support Calderon may need in forging a legislative coalition -- make him a strong possibility for a senior level position in the Calderon Administration. ¶28. (U) Born January 11, 1957 in Mexico City, he was elected to the Mexico City Legislative Council in 1991, and was elected to serve in the federal Chamber of Deputies in 1994 and 2003. From 1997 to 1999, he served as the head of the Procuraduria Federal de Consumidor (consumer protection agency). He also has worked for his family,s automobile dealerships and real estate businesses. Mr. Campa holds a BA in Law from Anahuac University, and has studied Economics at ITAM, although he did not earn a degree there. He is married with 4 daughters. His English ability is unknown. Juan Camilo MOURINO Terrazo -------------- ¶29. (U) Recently selected to head Calderon,s transition team, 34 year-old Juan Camilo Mourino has quickly risen in the PAN party ranks, having served as Calderon,s Campaign Vice Coordinator during the presidential campaign. ¶30. (U) Born in Campeche, Mr. Mourino was a Deputy at both the state level (Campeche) and federal level (2000-2003); in the latter capacity, he served on the Chamber,s Energy Commission. His 2003 campaign for Mayor of Campeche was unsuccessful. During President Fox,s presidential campaign, he served as Regional Campaign Coordinator for Campeche, Tabasco, Chiapas, Yucatan, and Quintana Roo. In 2004, President Fox selected him to serve as Subsecretary of Electricity in the Secretaria de Energia. He holds a BA in Economics from the University of Tampa in Florida and has worked for energy companies. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity GARZA