AMLO'S FRIEND SPECULATES ON THE CANDIDATE'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L MEXICO 003879 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR MX SUBJECT: AMLO'S FRIEND SPECULATES ON THE CANDIDATE'S POST-2006 PLANS Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION LESLIE A BASSETT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Poloffs met early July 4 with Jose Maria Perez Gay, a personal friend of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) tapped to be Foreign Secretary if AMLO had won July 2. Perez Gay said he was perplexed by apparent inconsistencies in preliminary numbers released by the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE),and those doubts would not be assuaged by the formal tabulation (released July 6 which confirmed that National Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderon received the most votes. The Electoral Tribunal must still ratify the results). Asked about AMLO's somewhat intemperate remarks at the Mexico City historic center late July 2, Perez Gay dismissed our cautions, saying AMLO was reflecting both his own emotions and the emotions of the crowd which saw victory being stolen. ¶2. (C) While Perez Gay clearly had many questions about IFE's conduct of the preliminary vote count and was already well versed in the mantra of demanding a complete recount, he also seemed ready to accept defeat. AMLO, he continued, saw this election as the end of the line for him. If he didn't win in 2006, AMLO wasn't going to hang around until 2012. Perez Gay dismissed any notion that AMLO might launch a foundation (a la Cuauhtemoc Cardenas) or look for a sinecure inside the PRD, perhaps returning as party leader. More likely, Perez Gay insisted, AMLO would retire to his parents' old home in Palenque and consider his next moves from there. ¶3. (C) Comment: Perez Gay is an old friend of AMLO's and not one of the PRD's most strident members. He forecast AMLO's rejection of defeat but seemed to indicate AMLO had limits as far as the struggle for victory went -- and the Electoral Tribunal marks one of those limits. Press reporting 7/13 indicate AMLO's national protest march has gotten off to a slow start, with only hundreds rather than thousands, marching towards Mexico City from the hinterlands. Those who gathered in the Zocalo July 12 from Mexico City were quickly if briefly disbursed by rain, and numbered less than 10,000 as well. No doubt the PRD machine can bring in vastly more over the weekend -- but it seems a spontaneous uprising is far from probable. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity GARZA