CALDERON DECLARED WINNER; AMLO TO CONTEST RESULTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 003747 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX SUBJECT: CALDERON DECLARED WINNER; AMLO TO CONTEST RESULTS REF: A. MEXICO 3700 ¶B. MEXICO 3422 Classified By: Ambassador Antonio O. Garza for reasons 1.4(B/D). ¶1. (C) Summary: On July 6, the Federal Electoral Institute's (IFE) district councils completed their retabulation of the votes cast in last Sunday's election. The official results show Calderon with 35.88% and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) with 35.31%, a margin of 0.57%. We understand that the IFE General Council is to meet late July 6 to officially announce this result. Even before the final votes were retabulated, AMLO held a press conference to declare that he would contest the results before the Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF) and called for his supporters to gather in Mexico City's central plaza on Saturday, July 8, for "an informational meeting." Contesting the results before the TEPJF will not be easy for AMLO; Mexican electoral law requires AMLO to identify and document irregularities or errors on a precinct-by-precinct basis. Although the TEPJF could order a vote-by-vote recount in particular precincts or districts, or even annul the results of individual precincts in the event of serious irregularities, a TEPJF contact has told us that it would not order a nationwide vote-by-vote recount. We believe it is unlikely that AMLO will be able to identify enough serious irregularities in individual precincts or districts to change the results of the election, and we therefore believe his effort to challenge the results is unlikely to prosper. The questions remain, however, just how much support is he able to muster on the streets. End summary. And the Results Are In.... -------------- ¶2. (U) On July 6, the IFE's 300 district councils completed the process of retabulating the election results. The final results showed Calderon with 35.88% and AMLO with 35.31%, representing a slender 0.57% (236,000 vote) margin of victory. This final result differed by only 0.06% from the IFE's preliminary results (reftel),when adjusted for the approximately 2.5 million votes the counting of which was initially deferred due to inconsistencies. The IFE Governing Council was scheduled to meet late today to announce the final result. According to press reports, President Fox has decided to accede to an IFE request not to make a public statement on the final results. AMLO Plans to Contest Election -------------- ¶3. (U) At 8:30 am local time, hours before the IFE finished the retabulation, AMLO held a news conference to announce that he did not accept the IFE's results and intended to contest them in the TEPJF. He implied that the principal basis of his complaint would be the failure of the 300 IFE district councils to order a vote-by-vote recount of every precinct. (Note: As noted in reftel, Mexican electoral law only permits vote-by-vote recounts when particular irregularities are identified; there does not appear to be any legal authority enabling the IFE to order a vote-by-vote recount absent such criteria. End note.) AMLO called the retabulation process "not transparent" and characterized IFE's decision not to permit a vote-by-vote recount as "not independent." When asked about Calderon's statement early this morning that it appeared the results of the retabulation would favor him, AMLO said it was too early for Calderon to proclaim victory. In a vague allegation of electoral misconduct on the part of the PAN, AMLO added "they know what they did." ¶4. (U) During his press conference, AMLO also announced that he was convoking his supporters to an "informational meeting" to be held at Mexico City's Zocalo on Saturday, July 8 at 5:00 pm. He said that he wanted to inform his supporters directly of the situation, adding that while he and his supporters would act "responsibly," they would defend the "popular will." ¶5. (SBU) A PRD contact told POLOFF that Saturday's event would not be a march or rally, but rather a meeting in which the candidate can brief his supporters on irregularities in the process and the reasons why he has chosen to contest the election before the TEPJF. Enumerating examples of irregularities, she said that in some precincts in the pro-Calderon state of Jalisco, PRD party representatives had been asked to leave voting stations before the vote count had been completed, and that during the retabulation process, some votes that previously had been counted as null votes in fact were plainly marked for AMLO. MEXICO 00003747 002 OF 002 AMLO Faces an Uphill Battle at the Tribunal -------------- ¶6. (C) A contact at the TEPJF explained to us that any contest of the election results would have to be done on a precinct-by-precinct (or district-by-district) basis. The PRD could complain that the entire electoral process was flawed to the point that voters' were unduly influenced and the vote should be retaken, but TEPJF magistrates have previously told us such a complaint is unlikely to prosper (ref B). Our contact said that AMLO had until July 10 to contest the result (assuming IFE makes its announcement of election results on July 6). The TEPJF could order a vote-by-vote recount in a particular precinct if there were sufficient evidence of irregularities, although our contact was quick to note that TEPJF would only consider such a remedy when the irregularity potentially could affect the vote count in the precinct. It would not order a recount merely for errors in form, of which he expected there to be many (e.g., where tally sheets were completed incorrectly). In cases of serious irregularities, the TEPJF could annul the results in a particular precinct. Nevertheless, given a final vote margin of 236,000 votes, AMLO would have to prove significant anomalies in hundreds if not thousands of precincts to alter the result of the election. A PRD contact told POLOFF that the PRD planned to argue before the TEPJF that the restrictions on ordering a vote-by-vote recount, referred to in paragraph 3 above, applied to IFE district councils, but not to the TEPJF. Comment: AMLO Keeping His Options Open -------------- ¶7. (C) By pledging to contest the results in the TEPJF, while convoking a mass meeting in the Zocalo, AMLO apparently wants to keep all his options open. The institutional route -- contesting the results before the TEPJF -- is likely to drag on for weeks or even months. As AMLO's team goes about the mammoth task of putting its case together over the next several days, it may become apparent to him that the institutional route is unlikely to yield the desired results. By convoking a mass meeting of his supporters on Saturday, AMLO not only puts pressure on the TEPJF, but also gives him the opportunity to test the level of commitment among his supporters and to maintain their engagement. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity GARZA